Real estate market research using a marketing mix. Coursework: Plan for marketing research of the real estate market. Cost pricing in the real estate market

Marketing research

Marketing research

Marketing research is a necessary component of the activities of companies that set themselves the goal of increasing market volumes, reducing costs, and, ultimately, increasing profitability. When developing a business plan investment project it is on marketing research that all assumptions about future income and market opportunities for a business are built. Competent market research will help reduce uncertainty in your business, reduce risks when developing a business plan, and most effectively allocate economic potential to achieve the company's desired strategic goals.

To make informed management decisions, certain knowledge about the target market is required, without which the planned transformations cannot be considered justified.

We provide market research services in all regions of Ukraine. In our activities, we use a set of marketing research methods suitable for solving various tasks companies

Qualified specialists of our company will conduct for you necessary work and provide qualified services using a variety of marketing methods. Depending on the type of need that a company has, the following goals and objectives of marketing research are distinguished:

comprehensive market research;

assessment of the market potential;

sales analysis;

study of goods;

research of buyers;

research of pricing policy;

short-term and long-term forecasting;

research of competitors;

research of the sales promotion system, advertising research, etc.

Marketing research of the real estate market

In order for the project to become as effective as possible, it is necessary that the idea of ​​developing a certain territory be confirmed by marketing, economic, expert studies on the basis of permissible and permitted, as well as physically feasible use of the territory.

Properly Designed real estate development concept plays a key role in the continued success of the project. When investing in development projects, investors expect that the profit from the project in the future will significantly exceed the funds spent on it.

The development of the concept should begin with the answer to the question of what object can be placed on the site in question. And for this it is necessary to conduct a number of marketing researches, which are carried out according to the criteria of compliance with economic feasibility and financial feasibility, maximum profitability and the highest cost.

On the basis of professional research, a concept for the future development of the territory is developed, where the main economic idea is formulated - what should be the property in this particular place in order for it to be commercially successful, bring the owner the maximum return on investment and retain its value for many years.

The economic concept is necessary for the most efficient use of the land, is an "instruction" for investors and owners when making decisions about further development territories.

Brief structure of the marketing concept

1. Analysis of the land plot at the micro and macro levels

2. Transport and pedestrian accessibility of the land plot

2.1 Access roads, connection to main highways and railway stations

2.2 Public transport,

2.3 Individual transport

2.4 Pedestrian flows

3. Analysis of the competitive environment of the land plot

4. Analysis of the macroeconomic situation in the country

5. Marketing analysis of the relevant segments of the real estate market

6. Analysis of potential consumers. Analysis of demand and consumer preferences - based on the results of a survey or in-depth interviews

7. SWOT - land plot analysis

8. The concept of development of a land plot or property

8.1 Description of the project, its main difference from competitors

8.2 Portrait of a potential consumer

8.3 Zoning of the territory or building

8.7 Future business pricing policy

8.8 Main technical and economic indicators according to the concept of real estate development

9. Identification and assessment of project risks, suggesting ways to minimize them

10. Technical and economic indicators of the project (TEPs)

Methods used in conducting marketing research:

1. Desk Research

The main purpose of desk research is to collect and analyze secondary information, the so-called secondary data. Secondary data, as a rule, constitute documents in the sense that the term is used in sociology. There are several types of documents: official and unofficial, personal and impersonal, etc. In desk research, data is always non-targeted, since it is not created during the study, but is taken from other sources ready for analysis.

Possibilities and effectiveness of the method:
Conducting desk research, as a rule, requires less time than questionnaires. The cost of desk research is low. The advantage also lies in the possibility of obtaining information about problems that are inaccessible to direct study through subject-object interaction, as is done in marketing research.
Desk research can be used as the main method of data collection, the purpose of which is to answer the program (main) research question, to test the main hypothesis. In addition, the method is an integral part of almost any integrated marketing research.

2. Field research:

2.1 Consumer survey

The main advantage of the methodology is that the collection and processing of data takes place specifically for a specific marketing analysis. The survey is based on primary information, that is, on the data just obtained to solve a specific problem under study. Advantages of primary information: data is collected according to the precise objectives of the research task; the data collection methodology is controlled, all results are available to the company and can be classified. Disadvantages: significant costs of material and labor resources.

It should be noted that field and desk research complement each other.

The cost of the survey, as well as the region of study and the sample size are determined on an individual basis.

2.2 In-depth interviews

In-Depth Interviews- This is an individual conversation, conducted according to a predetermined scenario. In-Depth Interview involves obtaining detailed answers to questions from the respondent. Although the interviewer follows a general outline of the interview, the order of the questions and their wording can vary significantly depending on what the respondent says. Using in-depth interview method the respondent's statements are not influenced by others (as happens, for example, in focus groups).

In-Depth Interviews are based on the use of techniques that encourage respondents to lengthy and detailed discussions on a range of issues of interest to the researcher. This allows you to get to the smallest details, to find out all aspects of the behavior and reactions of respondents that may be important for solving the research problems. Holding in-depth interview requires a very high qualification of the interviewer. The interview is conducted in person in the absence of strangers, or by telephone, if this is allowed by the nature of the study.

The cost of in-depth interviews, as well as the list of respondents, are determined on an individual basis.

Business planning

Business planning is a universal tool for predicting the future.

Business planning contributes to the development of the organization's goals, ways to achieve these goals, minimizing business risks, motivating the team, obtaining a loan.

Our specialization is drawing up a business plan, feasibility study (feasibility study) of the project to obtain a loan or attract investors. We will help you drafting and writing a business plan in accordance with UNIDO international standards, and in accordance with the requirements of Ukrainian credit organizations, international and Ukrainian investors and banks.

Business planning is especially necessary if your company decides:

expand or modernize production

open new lines of business

take part in a joint venture

Explore new markets or products

Get a loan or investment

All of the above activities require significant financial investments.

A universal tool for evaluating the effectiveness of such investments is a business plan.

UNIDO methodology

In accordance with UNIDO standards, the business plan structure should include the following sections:
1. Project summary
2. Description of the enterprise and industry
3. Description of products (services)
4. Marketing and sales of products (services)
5. Production plan
6. Organizational plan
7. Financial plan
8. Direction and effectiveness of the project
9. Business risks
10. Applications

The cost of developing a business plan, if the Customer has all the necessary information, is from 800 US dollars, the term is 12-16 working days.

Development of a financial concept (FC) for commercial real estate

FC appointment.

The goals of financial and economic calculations (hereinafter referred to as the Financial Concept, or FC) at the stage of developing the CONCEPT of the Development Object are:

§ Determination of the investment attractiveness of investments in the Development Object for the project participants - investors and the developer

§ Quantitative assessment of investment risks and project margin of safety

§ Preparation of the necessary calculation data when evaluating the effectiveness of invested capital (excluding the financing scheme) for making decisions on the feasibility of further project development

§ Establishing the minimum required requirements for the financing system and calculating the initial data for negotiating with various types of investors

§ Calculation of the investment cost plan for negotiating with contractors

As a result of the development of the FC, a dynamic model of the company's strategic goals is formed, taking into account the main factors of the external environment and the internal characteristics of the company, which is used to:

1. presentation to the general investor of a vision regarding the commercial effectiveness of his participation in the Project, taking into account the totality of technical, economic and market factors

2. making decisions on the development of the Construction Project of the Development Object and the assessment of the main cost elements of the Project

3. calculation of indicative indicators for negotiating with real estate firms regarding the sale and leasing of construction products

The FC, together with the dynamic model, serves as a business model for the investor, according to which the economic feasibility of the project is assessed at the stage of pre-project studies. All forecasts and justifications as part of the work on the development of FC are carried out in compliance with the established criterion for the degree of reliability of averaged estimates.

3. calculation of the commercial efficiency (viability) of the Project as a whole for the invested capital according to the base case

4. Analysis of the sustainability of the Project and identification of risk factors for subsequent planning of risk management tasks

results. The Customer receives all the necessary data to draw up a Declaration of Intent, which establishes the following target figures for the subsequent stages of the Project implementation (stage "P", stage "RD", investment phase):

§ forecast technical and economic parameters of construction projects

§ predicted terms of commissioning of construction projects

§ forecast for the sale of construction products

§ forecast of the discounted payback period of the Project

§ the expected rate of return of the investor

§ assessment of the sustainability of the Project in the face of uncertainty and risks

§ financial safety margin of the Project

Course work

According to the discipline "Fundamentals of Marketing"

Topic: "Plan of carrying out marketing research

real estate market"

annotation

Introduction

Chapter 1 Marketing Research Management

1.1Marketing structure information system

1.2Probing studies

1.3 Descriptive studies

1.4 Casual research

Chapter 2. Marketing research of the real estate market. Targets and goals

2.1 Market conditions

2.2 Market size

2.3 Market segmentation

2.4 State of competition and market barriers

2.5 Market opportunities and risks

Conclusion

Bibliography

Application

ANNOTATION

This course work presents the methodological aspects of the study modern market real estate.

These aspects were considered in order to consider the principles of marketing and search for its components that affect the management of marketing research, the study of the real estate market, in particular.

The course work consists of two parts. The first part is theoretical. It deals with the main theoretical aspects of marketing research management. The main components of research, types were identified and considered, namely:

the structure of the marketing information system;

Probing research;

descriptive research;

casual research.

In the second, analytical part of the course design, the basic principles of real estate market research are considered. Chapter Tasks:

Consider market conditions;

to characterize the market capacity;

Consider market segmentation

· to characterize the state of competition and market barriers;

· Describe market opportunities and risks.

At the end of the course work, the necessary conclusions are given.

INTRODUCTION

In modern economic theory there were such market concepts and scientific directions, such as, marketing activities. The main functions of this area of ​​activity were accounting for the needs for goods, the state and dynamics of demand, studying the possibilities of adapting production to market requirements, actively influencing the formation of needs, and controlling the conditions for the sale of goods.

Conducting marketing research is the most important component of the analytical function of marketing. The absence of such studies is fraught with the most adverse consequences for the manufacturer.

Marketing research of the real estate market involves the systematic collection, processing and analysis of data on those aspects of marketing activities in which certain decisions should be made, as well as an analysis of the components of the external environment that affect the marketing activities of the company.

The relevance of this topic of the course work lies in the fact that the main attention in marketing research should be given to market aspects: assessment of the state and trends (conjuncture) of the development of the real estate market, consider market conditions; characteristics of the market capacity; market segmentation; the state of competition and market barriers; market opportunities and risks.

The purpose of this course work - to consider aspects of the study of the real estate market.

In accordance with the purpose of the work, the following tasks were set:

Consider the principles and methods of marketing research management;

characterize the structure of the marketing information system;

consider the goals and objectives of marketing research;

characterize the market conditions; market volume; market segmentation; the state of competition and market barriers; market opportunities.

The object of research in the course work is the real estate market, the subject of research - aspects of studying the real estate market.

Methodological and theoretical basis This study included translated works of Western scientists, as well as the works of leading Russian scientists in the field of marketing research, statistical and operational data, and the results of a marketing market research.

CHAPTER 1. MANAGEMENT OF MARKETING RESEARCH

1.1 Structure of the marketing information system

There are few managers who are satisfied with the information they receive about the market. The reasons for this dissatisfaction are as follows:

available information is very often useless in the decision-making process;

there is too much information to use it effectively;

information is dispersed throughout the firm and difficult to find;

· key information arrives either too late to be used, or in a distorted form;

· some managers can hold information at home, without transferring it to other departments or colleagues;

It is difficult to verify the reliability and accuracy of information.

The role of the marketing information system (MIS) is to carefully study information needs, develop an information system that meets these needs, centralize the available information and organize its distribution in the organization. The definition of MIS can be formulated as follows:

A marketing information system is a robust and interactive framework that brings together people, equipment, and procedures for collecting, analyzing, evaluating, and distributing appropriate, timely, and reliable information to marketing decision makers in order to improve the effectiveness of marketing planning, implementation, and control.

The structure of the MIS is shown in Figure 1.

Marketing

Figure 1. The structure of the marketing information system

As the figure shows, monitoring the macromarketing environment is the responsibility of the organization's management. Three subsystems are involved in the collection and analysis of information flows: the internal reporting system, the business surveillance (intelligence) system and the marketing research system. The fourth subsystem is an analytical market system responsible for processing data and transferring information to management for its study, decision-making and control.

From this point of view, marketing research is only one of the components of MIS. The role of marketing research is clearly defined and limited to the specific problem to be decided upon. The role of the IIA is much broader, and the IIA itself is organized on a permanent basis. Below we briefly describe the tasks and content of its three subsystems.

Internal reporting system. All organizations collect internal data as part of their normal activities. These data collected for purposes other than research are referred to as internal secondary data. Sales data, for example, is recorded in an order-delivery-payment cycle. In addition, data are recorded on the cost, on the cost of advertising and sales promotion; relevant reports are received from sales representatives and dealers, R&D and production departments. And these are just some of the sources of data that exist in modern organizations. Sales data must be recorded in such a way that it can be classified by type of customer, payment procedure, product line, sales territory, time period, etc.

For example, a monthly sales report categorized by product, customer group, and sales territory allows for the following analysis:

· to compare sales volumes for the past period in physical and value terms;

Analyze the structure of the product mix in the total turnover;

Analyze the indicator of specific turnover;

evaluate the effectiveness of sales efforts by comparing sales volumes by territory, the number of commercial contacts, average income from one contact, etc.;

· analyze the degree of market penetration in different territories, taking into account purchasing power indices.

Many companies collect and store insufficient amounts of sales and cost data for research purposes. This data, stored and processed in the market analytical subsystem, should be a database of time series suitable, in particular, for forecasting. They can be used for the following types of analysis:

· graphical analysis to identify trends, seasonality and growth rates;

· short-term sales forecasting based on endogenous (internal) sales forecasting methods, such as exponential smoothing;

· correlation analysis of relationships between sales volumes and key influencing factors, such as distribution coefficients, advertising costs, relative price;

· Parametric or multivariate econometric models.

The development of internal reporting systems was facilitated by the ubiquity of computer technology. When developing a reporting system, a number of requirements must be met:

timeliness: information should be available when it is needed;

Flexibility: Information must be available in different forms and levels of detail to meet information needs. different situations requiring decision making;

completeness: the reporting system should cover the full range of information needs, but at the same time not allow the possibility of information overload;

Accuracy: the accuracy of the information should be appropriate for the decision-making situation, in addition, the information should not be too detailed;

· Convenience: The information should be easily accessible to the decision maker, as well as clear and practical.

The source of data for the internal reporting system is the organization itself, and therefore they have a minimum cost. These data form the basis of the MIS, its framework. As can be seen from fig. 7.2, firms use many different sources of information. Interestingly, in this particular example, the most important source of information is the actual consumers.

Business Surveillance System. Data from the internal reporting system should be supplemented with information about the macromarketing environment and about competitors. The role of the business surveillance system, or business intelligence, is to gather information about changes in external environment so that management can track strengths and weaknesses competitive position firms.

There are various methods of business observation: the method of random observation, the involvement of sales personnel, the establishment of information service centers, or the acquisition of data from syndicated sources.

In addition to internal reporting and business surveillance data, marketing management also needs to study specific problems and opportunities, such as testing new product concepts, image research trademark, forecasting the volume of sales in a particular country or region, etc. Such targeted projects are the prerogative of the marketing research system.

Marketing research system.

The role of marketing research is to provide management with the data and information necessary to adopt and implement a market orientation. More precisely, this role can be defined as follows:

Marketing research involves diagnosing information needs and selecting relevant interrelated variables for which reliable information is collected, recorded and analyzed.

According to this definition, marketing research has four functions:

· Diagnosis of information needs, which involves the active interaction of the market analyst and the decision maker.

· Selection of variables for evaluation, which requires the ability to translate a management problem into empirically verifiable research questions.

· The need to ensure the external and internal validity of the collected information, which makes it necessary to master the research methodology.

· Transfer of information to management for study, decision-making and control.

Thus, the role of a market analyst is not limited to the technical aspects directly related to working on a research project. The analyst should take an active part in the formulation of the research problem, in the development of the research plan, and in the interpretation and use of the research results.

The key question that a manager faced with a decision-making problem must answer is: is special marketing research required? Before answering it, the following factors must be taken into account:

1. Time limits. Marketing research is quite time consuming, and in many cases decisions need to be made quickly, even if the information is incomplete. The time factor is extremely important: the urgency of some situations leaves no room for research. This factor emphasizes the importance of MIS as a permanent information system.

2. Availability of data. In many cases, the company's management already has enough information so that the right decision can be made without additional research. It is this type of situation that should arise when a company has an established, permanent MIS. Sometimes market research is still carried out so that decision makers are not accused of negligence. In this case, they are, rather, a safety net, which will come in handy if the decision made turns out to be wrong.

3. Value for the firm. The value of marketing research depends on the nature of the management decision on the agenda. In relation to many routine decisions, the cost of an error is minimal - in any case, it does not cover the cost of conducting a study, which can be significant. Therefore, before conducting a study, managers should ask themselves the question: “Will the information obtained during the study allow me to improve the quality of the solution enough to cover the costs?” In many cases, even modest marketing research can significantly improve the quality of management decisions.

Often studies are not related to any specific solutions, but have an exclusively probing character. Their goal is to gain deeper market knowledge or find opportunities in a new, unknown market. This type of research usually right choice the firm's strategic alternatives.

Marketing research and the scientific method. Today, no one doubts that management is much more an art than a science. In the case of marketing research, the situation is diametrically opposite: they must be scientific in nature. The fact is that marketing research is associated with high-quality (verified) knowledge, and without high-quality knowledge there will be no successful management decisions. The bottom line is that researchers are trying to establish objective "truths". Managers want to make decisions based on accurate and unbiased information, and this suggests that the researcher must resort to scientific methods of collecting and analyzing data.

· Types of marketing research. Marketing research can be classified according to the methods used or the nature of the research problem. The most common research methods are survey, experiment and observation. The nature of the problem determines whether the inquiry is probing, descriptive, or causal.

Probing research is carried out to clarify the problem, to study the market situation in depth, to search for ideas or the essence of an event, and to determine the direction of future research. They do not aim to find irrefutable evidence of the correctness of a particular course of action. Methods used: statistical data processing and qualitative research.

Descriptive research answers the questions “who?”, “what?”, “when?”, “where?”, “how?”. The task of such a study is to determine the frequency of occurrence of an event or the relationship between two variables. Unlike probing research, descriptive research comes from a clearer understanding of the problem.

Descriptive or descriptive information is usually all that is required to solve a marketing problem. Methods: secondary data analysis, observation and communication methods. Most marketing research is of the descriptive type.

Causal research - the most ambitious form of research, it is associated with the establishment of cause-and-effect relationships. Usually the nature of this relationship is known in advance and needs to be confirmed or explained. For example, the researcher must show how a particular price, package, or advertisement will affect sales. As a rule, causal research is carried out in the form of a controlled experiment.

In principle, probing and descriptive research should precede the analysis of causal relationships and often act as preliminary stages(Fig. 2).

Figure 2. Different study sequences

Marketing research is probing when it is required to understand the essence of an event or find an idea, and not formally test a hypothesis derived from a theory or previous research projects. This type of research is very popular among firms due to its low cost, speed, flexibility, creativity and ability to generate new ideas.

The objectives of the probing study. The need for a probing study usually arises when a firm is dealing with vaguely articulated problems, such as "Brand X is down and we don't know why" or "Will the market show interest in our new product?" In such cases, the analyst may receive a wide variety of responses. Since it is impractical to check the correctness of each of them, a probing study is carried out: the most probable explanation(s) is established, which is then empirically tested. Thus, the main objectives of the probing study are to:

quickly explore sources of problems or potential opportunities;

more precisely formulate a fuzzy problem for further research;

put forward hypotheses or assumptions regarding the problem;

collect and analyze easily accessible information;

· identify priorities for future research;

introduce the analyst to the problem or the market;

Refine the concept.

In general, probing studies are applicable to the study of any problem, information about which is insufficient.

Development of hypotheses. Probing research is especially useful in the first stage of the research process, when a problem is formulated, because it allows you to translate this problem into specific research goals. The goal is to develop testable hypotheses. Hypotheses indicate what we are looking for; offer possible solutions research problem and introduce an element of specificity. Usually several competing hypotheses, specific or implicit, are formulated. How does an analyst generate hypotheses? This process is shown schematically in Fig. 3. There are four main sources of information:

1. the theory of such disciplines as economics, psychology, sociology or marketing;

2. managerial experience in solving similar problems;

3. secondary data;

4. probing research, when there is neither theory nor experience.

Figure 3. The process of developing a hypothesis

Methods of probing research. The purpose of a probing study is to search for new ideas, so no formal planning is required in this case. The main characteristics of such research are flexibility and resourcefulness. The main factor is the imagination of the researcher. The following methods are used: analysis of secondary data, conversations with informed persons, case studies and qualitative research using focus groups.

Use of secondary data. Secondary data is previously published information collected for purposes other than those of this study. Primary data, in contrast, are collected directly for the purposes of the study. Internal sources of secondary data are sources that are located in the organization itself, external sources originate outside of it. Internal data is concentrated in the internal reporting system. External sources can be very diverse: these are publications government agencies, and industry association data, as well as books, newsletters, reports, and periodicals. Data from these sources is inexpensive or completely free when it comes to libraries. In addition, there are external sources such as standardized marketing data, which are significantly more expensive. These include consumer panel results, wholesaler data, media audience data, and so on.

It should be said that secondary data is the most logical type of data, the importance of which should by no means be underestimated. The main advantage of secondary data is that it is always faster and cheaper to collect it than to collect primary information. In addition, this data may contain information that cannot be obtained in any other way. A competent market analyst should be familiar with similar sources of data about the market being studied.

However, secondary data also has some drawbacks that the analyst must also take into account. The following three problems are most common: outdated information, different definitions of the same terms, different units of measurement. Another disadvantage is that the user has no control over the accuracy of the secondary data. Other people's research can be biased and depend on the direction of the interests of the sources. In addition, the user of secondary data must critically evaluate, firstly, the data itself, and secondly, the order of their collection, in order to make sure that the research methodology is correct. When using secondary data, the following rules should be followed:

1. Always work with a primary source of secondary data, but not with secondary sources that themselves receive information from the original.

2. Assess the accuracy of secondary data, paying special attention to the purpose of their publication.

3. Appreciate overall quality methodology. The primary source should provide a detailed description of the data collection procedure, including definitions, forms, sample characteristics, etc.

Focus groups. Focus group is a more complex type of probing research. This is an unstructured, free type of interview with a small group of respondents (8 to 12 people). A focus group does not have a rigid Q&A structure, but rather a flexible discussion that discusses a brand, ad message, or new product concept. This happens as follows: the group meets at a pre-arranged time; it includes an interviewer, or moderator, and 8-12 participants. The moderator announces the topic of the discussion and organizes its discussion among the participants. Focus group participants can express their true feelings, doubts and fears, as well as their deepest beliefs.

projection techniques. It is not uncommon for respondents to be reluctant or embarrassed to directly discuss their feelings, but may respond sincerely (consciously or subconsciously) if the question is veiled. These methods are currently used in clinical and individual ability tests Theoretically, when a person is asked to structure or organize an unstructured or ambiguous situation, he has no choice but to show his own character and express his own attitude, thereby demonstrating them to the researcher.

Limitations of probing studies. Probing research cannot replace more thorough research. quantitative research. However, many managers are tempted to limit themselves to probing studies with their small sample sizes, mainly because of their simplicity and accessibility. Blindly accepting unstructured focus group results or short series of informal interviews has two dangers:

• First, the results are not representative and therefore cannot be projected onto the population as a whole.

· Secondly, the results are ambiguous due to the subjective interpretation of the moderator.

Given these limitations, probing research methods should be applied directly to take into account consumer perspectives and develop hypotheses for further study.

Descriptive research, as the name implies, is designed to describe a given situation or a given population. They differ from probing studies by increased rigidity of the structure. Probing studies are flexible, while descriptive studies attempt to obtain a complete and reliable description of the situation. In order to go through all the necessary phases and collect reliable information, a formal study structure is required. The most common method of descriptive research is a survey.

Goals of descriptive research. Descriptive research covers a wide range of research purposes. The general goal is to visualize some aspect of the market at a particular moment in time or track the dynamics of change over a certain period of time. More specific goals can be formulated as follows:

· Describe the organization, distribution channels, or competitive structure of a particular market or segment.

· Calculate the proportion and socioeconomic profile of the part of the general population that exhibits certain behaviors.

· Predict the level of primary demand for the next five years in a given market using heuristic forecasting methods or the extrapolation method.

Describe buying behavior certain groups consumers.

· Describe how consumers perceive and evaluate the properties of given brands in relation to competing brands.

· Describe lifestyle changes in certain segments of the population.

To conduct descriptive research, it is important to understand and know the problem, which will allow you to accurately determine the data collection procedure. As the previous section has shown, one or more hypotheses must be formulated by the beginning of such research. Before proceeding with it, three conditions must be met:

1. There must be several hypotheses or hypotheses derived from research questions that are necessary to determine the direction of data collection.

2. A clear wording of the questions “who?”, “What?”, “When?”, “Where?”, “Why?” And How?".

3. Determining the method of collecting information (communication methods or observation).

Primary data collection methods. There are three ways to collect primary data: observation, communication methods, and experiment. The experiment differs from other methods in the degree of control over the research situation. Generally speaking, this method is most often used in causal research, so we will consider it in the next section. In cross-sectional and longitudinal studies, two other methods are used - observation and communication.

Observation methods. Scientific observation is the systematic process of recording human behavior, observing objects and events without any intervention or communication with them. An observational market analyst captures information as an event occurs, or collects evidence of events that took place in the past. The objects of observation can be at least five types of phenomena:

Physical actions and facts such as purchases, store locations and layouts, prices, counter sizes and organization, sales promotions;

Temporal indicators, such as the length of time spent in a store or the length of driving a car;

spatial relationships and location, such as counting the number of customers in a store or observing the order in which they move between counters;

· behavioral manifestations, such as eye movement or level of emotional arousal;

The most important advantage of the observation method is its stealth, unobtrusiveness, since communication with the respondent is not required. An “observer” can be a human being or a mechanical device such as a pedestrian counter, an audiometer (devices that record television viewing) or optical scanners in supermarkets that capture shopping and purchasing behavior data. Observational data are generally more objective and accurate than data from communication methods.

Despite their advantages, observational methods have one significant limitation: they do not allow one to determine motives, attitudes, preferences, and intentions. Therefore, such methods are used only to confirm the primary data on behavior.

Communication methods. In communication research methods, the required information is collected through a survey of respondents. The data collection tool is a questionnaire or questionnaire. Questions (and answers) can be formulated orally or writing. There are three ways to conduct a survey: a personal interview, a telephone survey, and a mail survey, or self-completion of questionnaires.

1. Personal interview. This method is well suited for exploring complex concepts that require explanation or for new products. The collection of information is conducted as a personal question and answer session in which the interviewer and the respondent participate. The interviewer usually uses the questionnaire as a guide, although he may use different visual materials. Responses are usually recorded directly during the interview. Face-to-face interviews are characterized by a high response rate, but are also more expensive than other forms of survey. In addition, the presence of the interviewer may influence the responses of the respondent.

2. Telephone survey. This method is best suited for the study of simple and well-defined product concepts or their individual functions. Questions are asked by phone. The required information is strictly defined, non-confidential and limited in scope. The method compares favorably with the speed of data collection and low costs per interview. At the same time, some phone numbers are not available in directories, which causes problems with building representative samples. Other limitations are the lack of personal contact and the impossibility of using visual materials.

3. Poll by mail. Such a survey is conducted in order to expand the circle of respondents. It is most effective for studies of well-defined concepts where a limited number of specific responses are required from the respondent. In general, such surveys are cheaper than telephone and personal interviews, but the response rate in this case is much lower. There are several methods for increasing the activity of respondents. Questionnaires distributed by mail should be more structured than all the others.

The advantages and disadvantages of these methods are summarized in Appendix 1.

Rules for compiling questionnaires. A well-written questionnaire is the key to good survey results. In essence, the questionnaire is just a set of questions, selected in such a way as to obtain the data necessary to achieve the goal of the study. At first glance, developing questionnaires may seem like a simple matter, especially to those who have never experienced it. Writing a good questionnaire is as easy as writing a good poem. The end result should look as if the words fell on paper, but, as a rule, there is a long, painstaking work behind this.

The function of the questionnaire is to give an assessment. The questionnaire is the main channel for obtaining data from respondents and transmitting this data to researchers, who, in turn, send new information to managers who make a particular decision. This channel performs two communication tasks: it must indicate to the respondent the interests of the researcher; he must convey to the researcher the opinion of the respondent. The accuracy of the data collected through questionnaires depends to a large extent on the distortions or "noise" introduced by both types of communication. A sloppy questionnaire can significantly distort communication in the direction from the researcher to the respondents, and vice versa.

To avoid problems in the design of the questionnaire, before accepting the final version of the questionnaire, it is necessary to analyze the relationship between the information needs for a particular research project and the expected database for the developed questionnaire (Fig. 4).

respondents Database

Figure 4. Research design of the questionnaire

The logical chain for the development of the questionnaire is as follows:

Preliminary decision on the list of issues

Decision on the content of an individual question

Decision on the format of answer options

Decide on the thesaurus to use to formulate the question

Decision on placement of questions in the questionnaire

Decision on the format, design of the questionnaire

Testing, revision and preparation of the final version of the questionnaire

One of the common mistakes is that the researcher expects the respondents to understand the essence of the questions. However, respondents may simply not know what they are being asked about. They may not be familiar with the product or research topic, they may confuse the research subject with something else, or they may understand the wording of the question in their own way. Respondents may refuse to answer personal questions. Most of these problems can be minimized if the questionnaire is written by a qualified researcher.

The questionnaire is an object through which four participants of any survey interact:

a decision maker who needs specific information to solve a problem;

a market analyst whose role is to translate the research problem into research questions;

an interviewer who must receive reliable information from respondents;

Respondents who must agree to provide the requested information.

In order for the questionnaire to be of high quality, it is necessary that it be standardized. Compliance with this condition contributes to the fact that the answers received from different respondents by different interviewers will be comparable, and therefore suitable for statistical processing.

The procedure for compiling the questionnaire. There are no rules for compiling perfect questionnaires, however, summarizing the experience of many researchers, it is possible to develop recommendations, the observance of which will reduce the problems of reliability of the collected data to a minimum. One of the best sources of information on this topic is the book by G. Boyd and R. Westfall. When compiling the questionnaires, it is proposed to follow the following procedure, consisting of seven steps:

Step 1. Determine the required information. Since the questionnaire is the link between the information needs and the data being collected, the researcher should have full list all information needs, as well as a clear definition of the group of respondents. Usually, both are established in the course of a probing study and the development of a hypothesis. Various forms of market response will help the researcher to identify concepts that require evaluation.

Step 2. Determining the type of questionnaire. Data collection may be in the form of personal interviews, telephone surveys or mailing questionnaires. The choice of one or another option depends largely on the type of information that needs to be collected. At this stage, you need to determine the type of questionnaire, since the content, wording and order of the questions, as well as the length of the questionnaire, depend on this. For example, the decision to conduct a joint review would eliminate the possibility of conducting telephone surveys. Thus, in this step, the market analyst must determine exactly how the necessary primary data will be collected and how they will be analyzed.

Step 3. Determining the content of the questions. Once the characteristics of the required information and the method of data collection have been established, the researcher can begin to formulate questions. When determining their content, the following should be taken into account:

Is this question necessary? Avoid using questions that are interesting but not directly related to the required information.

· Do not need to split the question into two or more! Some questions may contain two or more items. If you leave them all in one question, it will be extremely difficult to interpret it. This is especially true for “why” questions.

· Does the respondent have the required information! Three questions should be answered here: does the respondent have experience with what is being asked about; whether the respondent can remember the required information; does the respondent have to do any significant work to obtain this information?

· Will respondents provide information! Even when respondents have the necessary information, they sometimes do not answer questions because they cannot formulate their answer or do not want to answer.

Step 4. Determining the question type. When choosing specific wording, the researcher can choose between three main types of questions:

· Questions without suggested answers: Respondents must formulate answers themselves.

· Multiple Choice Questions: The respondent must select one or more answers from the list provided.

· Dichotomous question: An extreme form of a multiple-choice question where the respondent is given only two options to choose from, such as yes/no, agree/disagree, etc.

In multiple-choice questions, the choices themselves can be ranked, in which case the goal is not just to define a category, as with a nominal scale, but rather to “score” the degree of agreement, importance, or level of preference. Two types of scales can be used: ordinal or ordinal, whose values ​​are simply ordered by rank, and interval, which has all the properties of an ordinary scale, but the distances between values ​​can fluctuate markedly. It is important to distinguish between these two types of scales because specific mathematical operations can be applied to each of them. In practice, interval scales are most often used in questions of importance and preference.

Various scales are currently in use. The most common are the Likert scale, which assigns its own descriptors to each category, the semantic differential scale, which uses bipolar adjectives, and the constant sum scale, where the respondent is asked to allocate a certain number of points between two or more attributes according to their importance.

Step 5. Choosing the wording of questions. Now we need to formulate the questions themselves, and do it in such a way that: the respondent can easily understand them; Do not direct the respondent to the “correct” answer. In this regard, it makes sense to take into account a number of points.

1. Is the essence of the issue clearly indicated! You need to make sure that each question is clearly articulated in terms of six components: “who”, “where”, “when”, “what”, “why”, and “how”.

2. Should the question be subjective or objective? The subjective question is formulated in a language close to the individual, the objective one - in the most common terms. As a rule, answers to subjective questions are more reliable.

3.Use simple words. The words used in the wording of questions should have only one interpretation, and this interpretation should be publicly known. There are many examples of misunderstanding of seemingly ordinary words. In particular, marketing jargon (“brand image”, “positioning”, etc.) should be avoided. To eliminate possible shortcomings, it is useful to conduct a trial survey.

4. Avoid ambiguous questions. Ambiguous questions different people understand differently. Indefinite words such as often, sometimes, a lot, good, much, bad, etc. can have many different meanings.

5. Avoid leading or one-sided questions. A leading question is a question whose wording leads the respondent to a specific answer. One-sided questions are related to one side of the problem. The question should be as neutral as possible. To do this, it should not mention the name of the brand or company, or the problem should be considered from all sides.

6. Avoid double questions. A dual question is one that allows two "correct" answers, which puts respondents in a difficult position. In this case, two questions should be asked instead of one.

7. If possible, modify the questionnaire. There is no single correct wording of questions.

Step 6. Determine the sequence of questions. As a rule, the questionnaire consists of three parts: the main information sought; socio-demographic information used to build the profile of the respondent; special cells that the interviewer fills out. General rule is as follows: the main questions of the questionnaire come first, then the socio-demographic questions, unless they are used as a filter for selecting respondents. The researcher should also pay attention to the following points:

1. The first questions should be simple and interesting. If the opening questions are interesting, understandable, and easy to answer, the respondent is more likely to complete the entire questionnaire.

2. Use the funnel principle. The principle of the funnel is that first you ask general question and then gradually formulate more and more specific questions on the same topic.

3. Arrange the questions in a logical order. The order of the questions should be logical for the respondent. Sudden changes in the topic confuse respondents and cause uncertainty.

4. Difficult or sensitive questions should be placed towards the end of the questionnaire. Sensitive questions should be placed at the end of the questionnaire, as by this point the respondent will be fully involved in the study.

With regard to questionnaires distributed by mail, it should be remembered that filling them out by the respondent is associated with a number of specific difficulties. The fact is that such a questionnaire should itself interest the respondent. "Responsibility" falls on the first few questions. Further questions should be arranged logically. In mail surveys, it is difficult to achieve the same sequence of familiarization of respondents with questions as in personal interviews, since the respondent himself determines in what order he answers the questions. In such questionnaires, composition and external attractiveness are especially important.

Step 7. Preliminary survey. Before starting a full-scale survey, it makes sense to conduct a preliminary survey in field conditions. In this situation, the questionnaire is distributed to a limited number of potential respondents who seem to be the most suitable for the survey, but are not too different from the group being studied. However, statistical sampling is not required at this stage. Preliminary survey allows you to determine whether respondents have difficulty understanding the questionnaire and whether it contains ambiguous or biased questions. It is also useful to tabulate the results of the preliminary questionnaire to check whether the questionnaire provides all the necessary information.

Methods for determining the sample. After the questionnaire is compiled and verified, it is necessary to select the respondents who, in fact, will be interviewed. One way is to collect information from each member of the target population through a census. An alternative option is to interview part of the group, having determined the sample of respondents. The census method is often used in markets for capital goods, where the size of the general population does not exceed 100-300 units. However, in most cases, the size of the population is larger, so the financial and time costs of contacts with all its representatives turn out to be prohibitively large. For this reason, the researcher uses the sample:

Sampling is the selection of a part of the population under study in order to obtain results that are applicable to the entire population under study.

All sampling methods can be divided into two main categories: with probabilistic and deterministic sampling.

· With probability sampling, an objective selection procedure is used and each member of the general population has a known non-zero chance of being included in the sample.

· With a deterministic sample, the selection procedure is subjective and the probability of selecting each representative of the general population is unknown.

Each of these two sampling procedures has its own advantages. The main advantage of probabilistic sampling is that, with the help of appropriate statistical methods, it is possible to determine the error of random selection, while in deterministic samples, statistical methods, strictly speaking, are not applicable. In most cases, probability samples should be used, although there are situations where deterministic samples are preferred, mainly due to lower costs and ease of organization.

Probability samples. There are various types of probability samples: simple random samples; stratified (stratified) samples (proportional and non-proportional); cluster samples and multistage samples.

· Simple random sampling: each element of the general population has not only a known, but also an equal probability of being included in the sample. There are different selection procedures (random number method, systematic sampling). All of them assume that the researcher has a list of all members of the general population.

· Stratified sampling: the study population is divided into mutually exclusive populations, or strata (division occurs according to criteria such as size, income, age), and a random sample is taken from each of them. In proportional stratified sampling, the total sample size is distributed among the strata in proportion to their size, while in non-proportional stratified sampling, its size does not depend on the size of the stratum, but on quantitative changes in the criteria within the stratum.

· Cluster sampling: the studied population is divided into mutually exclusive groups (clusters), in each of which a random sample is made. In addition, each group should represent the general population in miniature.

· Multi-stage sampling involves two or more stages combining some probabilistic group sampling methods. Instead of choosing all representatives of randomly compiled groups (clusters), only a certain sample is taken from each of them. In the resulting subgroups, subsamples are taken. The main advantage of multi-stage sampling is that a probability sample can be obtained even if the researcher does not have a list of representatives of the general population.

In general, probabilistic samples require more time and financial costs than deterministic ones, because: they need an accurate specification of the general population and a list of its elements; the sampling procedure must be followed exactly.

Deterministic selections. There are three types of deterministic samples: non-representative sample, random sample, and quota sample.

· Non-representative sample: respondents are selected based on the convenience of the study.

· Random Sampling: The market analyst selects the respondents for the sample himself, relying on his judgment as to their suitability for the research objectives.

· A quota sample resembles a stratified random and non-representative sample. The interviewer finds and interviews a certain number of people in each of several categories, but the choice itself is not probabilistic, but subjective.

Survey errors. One of the main tasks of a market analyst who will conduct a survey is to evaluate the overall accuracy and validity of the survey results. The total polling error can be composed of two constituent parts: errors in sample determination and constant (systematic) error. Sampling error can be reduced by increasing the sample size or by improving the quality of the selection of respondents. It is more difficult with systematic errors that arise for a variety of reasons, such as incorrect construction of the questionnaire, low qualification of interviewers, errors that occur due to the fault of respondents or in the process of data coding. The best way minimization of systematic errors - strict control over the entire process of collecting, coding and analyzing primary data. If the survey is conducted by an outside research firm, the market analyst should issue it to employees precise instructions and keep a close eye on their work.

Descriptive studies often use two-dimensional tables to show the relationship between two variables. Often, when such a table indicates a statistically significant relationship, especially if one variable is expected to influence another (as in regression analysis), it is tempting to consider this fact as irrefutable evidence of the existence of a causal relationship.

There are three distinct, though complementary, goals for causal research:

· Establish the direction and strength of a causal relationship between one or more action variables and one response variable.

· Measure in quantitative terms the degree of influence of the action variable on the response variable.

· Predict the values ​​of the response variable for different values ​​of the action variables.

However, it is not necessary to pursue all of these goals. Several methods of causal research are subordinated to a single goal: to establish a causal relationship and thereby achieve a deeper understanding of the phenomenon under study. In such cases, neither quantitative estimates nor the degree of influence are determined.

Three types of evidence are used to evaluate causal relationships, which are quite intuitive:

· Evidence that the action variable precedes the response variable.

· Evidence that there is a relationship between the action and the observed result.

· Evidence that the influence of other possible causative factors has been eliminated or controlled.

The last condition is the most severe. It requires control over all external variables so that the experiment can be considered "pure". The greatest threat to the internal validity of the experiment is:

Background: events external to the experiment that affect the reactions of the participants in the experiment.

· Natural development: changes that occur with the respondents over time, such as growing up (aging), the appearance of hunger, fatigue.

· Test effect: awareness of the fact of participation in the experiment, which can exacerbate the sensitivity and bias of the respondents.

· Protest effect: Pre-experiment evaluation (observation, testing) can also increase respondents' sensitivity and bias, thereby influencing the respondent's response to the experimental intervention and subsequent evaluation.

· Instrumentation: The means of measurement may change, for example when many observers or interviewers participate in an experiment.

· Withdrawal: Respondents may choose not to participate in an experiment after it has begun.

· Subjectivity of selection: the experimental group may have systematic and significant differences from the general population.

The market analyst must plan the experiment in such a way as to eliminate these external factors or control their influence.

Definition of an experiment. An experiment is a scientific study in which the researcher controls and controls one or more action variables and observes the accompanying changes in one or more response variables. The action variables that are controlled and whose influence is measured are called experimental influences. Organizations, respondents or physical objects on which experimental influences are carried out and whose reaction is evaluated are called groups of subjects.

The experimental design includes the definition of: experimental interventions to be controlled by the researcher; groups of subjects who will participate in the experiment; the response variable whose value will be measured; procedures for managing external variables.

There are two types of experiments:

· Laboratory experiment, when the researcher creates a situation with the required conditions (imitation of a store, survey) and then controls some variables while controlling the others.

· A field experiment that is conducted under real or neutral conditions (such as a real store), while also controlling one or more action variables and carefully controlling the external conditions.

Types of plans for the experiment. In a typical experiment, two groups of respondents (or stores) are selected that have similar characteristics in relation to the purpose of the study.

Any experimental design is based on the same principle: it does not matter what external factors act in the experiment, as long as they equally affect the experimental and control group. The main conditions for validity are a random selection of groups of subjects and a random distribution of experimental effects between groups.

Today, when all supermarkets are equipped with scanning devices, it has become much easier to organize marketing experiments.

Methods for collecting preference data.

There are two methods for collecting preference data: the full profile method and the pairwise comparison method.

The full profile presentation method is more popular because it reduces the number of comparisons through the use of fractionated factorial designs. With this approach, each product concept is described separately, most often on a special profile card. The number of comparisons in this case is less, and the ratings themselves can be ranked or given in the form of a rating. Main advantages:

Determining the level of each property in the product concept gives a more realistic description of the latter;

provides a visual display of trade-offs between all properties;

· the situation itself is very close to the actual buying behavior.

The main drawback is the risk of respondents becoming overwhelmed by information overload when they are asked to rank or rank too many concepts. This problem can arise even in a fractionated factorial design. Get rid of it allows the method of paired comparisons.

Evaluation of partial utilities. With regard to estimation methods, there has been a noticeable breakthrough in recent years, and the reason for this is the use of the adaptive joint analysis method. The ranking method requires a modified version of the analysis of variance, created specifically for the original data.

The next problem is the interpretation of the results of the entire sample of respondents. Two approaches can be applied here. First, one can calculate the averages of all partial utilities for each property. This method is simple, but it inevitably leads to loss of information, since it assumes the homogeneity of preferences within the studied population. Secondly, you can use the cluster analysis method, i.e., group the respondents into segments within which the preferences are homogeneous. Currently, this method is used for segmentation by benefits.

Modeling of structural equations. Over the past decade, significant progress has been made in the development of data analysis methods. New techniques, called second-generation data analysis methods, or structural equation modeling (SEM), allow you to study several dependency relationships at the same time (in conventional multivariate analysis, only one relationship is allowed at a time). In practice, a market analyst often has to answer several related questions at once. For example, when evaluating the performance of a store, the following interrelated issues should be investigated:

· What factors determine the image of the store?

· How does this image, together with other variables (proximity, variety) affect purchasing decisions and store satisfaction?

How does store satisfaction correlate with long-term store loyalty?

How does store loyalty affect visit frequency and exclusivity?

· How does frequency and exclusivity determine store profitability?

Income and level of education are observable factors. They can be used as indicators of such an unobservable concept as social status. The hidden variables are store image, satisfaction, loyalty, and performance. Another unobservable variable is the efficiency of the firm as a whole. Its hidden indicators are the return on investment, the rate of increase in sales revenue or market share, the success rate of new products, etc.

Chapter 2. Marketing research of the real estate market. Targets and goals

In order to explore the real estate market, it is necessary to carry out the following activities: it is necessary to assess the volume and structure of the supply of this product, the volume and structure of demand for it and compare these values ​​at a given price level. Then you need to calculate the dependence of demand and product supply on the price and choose such a level at which demand and supply will balance. It is possible to balance supply and demand by changing the latter in one direction or another.

The market research problem is an information problem. In order to assess the volume and structure of the proposal, it is necessary to obtain information about how many and what objects are available on the market, how many and what objects are being prepared for implementation, and what is already being specifically implemented. According to the data on the sale of real estate, one can judge only the realized part of the demand.

The objects of market research are trends and market development processes, including analysis of changes in economic, scientific and technical, demographic, environmental, legislative and other factors. The structure and geography of the market, its capacity, sales dynamics, market barriers, the state of competition, the current situation, opportunities and risks are also being studied. The main results of market research are forecasts of its development, assessment of market trends, and identification of key success factors. The most effective ways conducting a competitive policy in the market and the possibility of entering new markets. Market segmentation is carried out, i.e. selection of target markets and market niches.

In order to make informed decisions in any market, it is necessary to have reliable, thorough and timely information. The systematic collection, reflection and analysis of data on the problems associated with the functioning of the market constitute the content of marketing research. To be effective, these studies must first be systematic; secondly, rely on specially selected information; thirdly, to carry out certain procedures for collecting, summarizing, processing and analyzing data; fourthly, to use tools specially developed for the purposes of analysis. Thus, marketing activities are built on the basis of special market research and the collection of information necessary for their implementation.

The flows of this information are ordered by certain research procedures and methods. Let's dwell on each object of market research.

2.1 Market conditions

The general goal of market research is to determine the conditions under which the most complete satisfaction of the population's demand for goods of this type is ensured and the prerequisites are created for the effective marketing of manufactured products. In accordance with this, the primary task of studying the market is to analyze the current supply and demand ratio, i.e. market conditions. Market conditions are a set of conditions under which activities are currently taking place in the market. It is characterized by a certain ratio of supply and demand for goods of this type, as well as the level and ratio of prices.

Three levels of market research are considered: general economic, sectoral and commodity.

An integrated approach to the study of market conditions involves:

use of various, complementary sources of information;

· a combination of a retrospective analysis with a forecast of buyers characterizing the market situation;

· Application of a combination of different methods of analysis and forecasting.

Collection of information - milestone study of market conditions. There is no single source of information about the conjuncture that would contain all the information about the processes under study. The study uses various types of information obtained from various sources. Distinguish information: general, commercial, special.

General information includes data characterizing the market situation as a whole, in conjunction with the development of an industry or a given production. The sources of its receipt are the data of state and industry statistics, official forms of accounting and reporting.

Commercial information is data extracted from the business documentation of the enterprise, on the marketing of manufactured products and received from partners in the order information exchange. These include:

Applications and orders trade organizations;

· materials of market research services of enterprises, organizations and trade institutions (materials on the movement of goods in wholesale and retail organizations, market reviews, proposals for the current replacement of the assortment, etc.).

Special information represents data obtained as a result of special market research activities (surveys of the population, buyers, trade and industry specialists, experts, sales exhibitions, market meetings), as well as materials from research organizations.

Special information is of particular value because it contains information that cannot be obtained in any other way. Therefore, when studying market conditions, special attention should be paid to obtaining extensive special information.

When studying the market situation, the task is not only to determine the state of the market at one time or another, but also to predict the likely nature of its further development for at least one or two quarters, but no more than a year and a half, that is, forecasting.

A market forecast is a scientific prediction of the prospects for the development of demand, product supply and prices, carried out within the framework of a certain methodology, based on reliable information, with an assessment of its possible error.

The market forecast is based on taking into account the patterns and trends of its development, the main factors determining this development, observing strict objectivity and scientific conscientiousness when evaluating data and forecasting results.

AT general view the development of a market forecast has four stages: establishing the object of forecasting; choice of forecasting method; forecast development process; assessment of forecast accuracy;

Establishing the object of forecasting is the most important stage of scientific foresight. For example, in practice, the concepts of sale and demand, supply and product offer, market prices and selling prices are often identified.

Under certain conditions, such replacements are possible, but with appropriate reservations and subsequent adjustment of the results of forecast calculations.

The choice of forecasting method depends on the purpose of the forecast, the period of its lead, the level of detail, and the availability of initial (basic) information. If a forecast of the possible sale of a product is made to determine the prospects for the development of retail trading network, then more rough, estimated forecasting methods can be used. If it is performed to justify the purchase of specific goods for the next month, then more accurate methods should be used.

The process of developing a forecast consists in carrying out calculations, with the subsequent adjustment of their results at a qualitative, professional level.

The forecast accuracy is estimated by calculating its possible errors. Therefore, the forecast results are almost always presented in interval form. Market forecasts are classified according to several criteria.

In terms of lead time, the following are distinguished: short-term forecasts (from several days to 2 years); medium-term forecasts (from 2 to 7 years); long-term forecasts (more than 7 years). Naturally, they differ not only in the lead time, but also in the level of detail and forecasting methods used.

Market forecasts are distinguished on the basis of a commodity: a specific product, types of goods, product group, complex of goods, all goods.

On a regional basis, market forecasts are made for: specific consumers, administrative regions, large regions, countries of the world.

According to the essence of the methods used, there are groups of forecasts, the basis of which are: extrapolation of a series of dynamics; interpolation of a series of dynamics - finding the missing members of a dynamic series inside it; demand elasticity coefficients; structural modeling - is a statistical table containing a grouping of consumers according to the most significant feature, where for each group the structure of consumption of goods is shown. Expert review. This method is used in the markets for new products, when the underlying information has not had time to form, or in the markets for traditional products that have not been explored for a long time. It is based on a survey of experts - sufficiently competent specialists; economic and mathematical modeling.

The results of the analysis of predicted indicators of market conditions in combination with reporting and planned data make it possible to develop measures in advance aimed at developing positive processes, eliminating existing and preventing possible imbalances and can be provided in the form of various analytical documents.

· Summary review, or report. The main document with generalizing indicators of the market, consumer goods. The dynamics of general economic and industry indicators is analyzed, special conditions conjuncture. A retrospective is carried out and a forecast of market indicators is given, the most characteristic trends are highlighted, and interrelations between the market conditions of individual markets are identified.

· Thematic (problematic or commodity) review of the conjuncture. Documents reflecting the specifics of a particular situation or a particular market. The most pressing problems typical for a number of goods, or the problem of a particular product market, are identified.

· Operative (signal) market information. A document containing operational information, which is a kind of "signal" about individual processes market conditions. The main sources of operational information are data from trade correspondents, surveys of the population, and expert assessments of specialists.

2.2 Market size

The main task of the study is to determine the capacity of the market.

Market capacity is the total effective demand of buyers; possible annual sales volume at the prevailing average price level. Market capacity depends on the degree of development this market, elasticity of demand, from changes in economic conditions, price levels, product quality and advertising costs. The market capacity is characterized by the size of the demand of the population and the size of the supply. At any given moment in time, the market has a quantitative and qualitative certainty, i.e. its volume is expressed in value and natural indicators of the sold, and consequently, bought goods.

Two levels of market capacity should be distinguished: potential and real. The real capacity of the market is the first level. The potential level is determined by personal and social needs and reflects the volume of goods sold adequate to them. In marketing, the term market potential is also used. The actual emerging market capacity may not correspond to its potential capacity. The calculation of the market capacity must be spatio-temporal certainty.

Market capacity is formed under the influence of many factors, each of which, in certain situations, can both stimulate the market and restrain its development, limiting its capacity. The whole set of factors can be divided into two groups: general and specific.

Common are the socio-economic factors that determine the market capacity of any product:

volume and structure of the proposal;

range and quality of objects;

the achieved standard of living and the needs of the population;

the purchasing power of the population;

the level of price ratio for goods;

· population;

· its social and sex and age structure;

Degree of saturation of the market;

the state of the sales, trade and service network;

the geographic location of the market.

Specific factors determine the development of markets for individual objects, and each market may have factors characteristic only of it. In this case, a specific factor in terms of the degree of influence may be decisive for the formation and development of supply and demand for a particular object. The set of factors that determine the development of supply and demand are in a complex dialectical relationship. A change in the action of some factors causes a change in the action of others. A feature of some factors is that they cause changes in both the overall capacity and the structure of the market, and others - that they, without changing the overall capacity of the market, cause its structural changes. In the process of market research, it is necessary to explain the mechanism of the system of factors and measure the cumulative results of their influence on the volume and structure of supply and demand.

Identification of cause-and-effect relationships in the market under study is carried out on the basis of systematization and analysis of data. Systematization of data consists in the construction of grouped and analytical tables, dynamic series of analyzed indicators, graphs, charts, etc. This is the preparatory stage of information analysis for its quantitative and qualitative assessment.

Processing and analysis is carried out using known methods, namely grouping, index and graphical methods, construction and analysis of time series. Causal relationships and dependencies are established as a result of the correlation-regression analysis of time series. Ultimately, a description of the cause-and-effect relationships caused by the interaction of various factors will make it possible to build a development model in the market and determine its capacity.

The market development model is a conditional reflection of reality and schematically expresses the internal structure and causal relationships of this market. It allows, using a system of indicators, to characterize the qualitative originality of the development of all the main elements of the market at the present stage and at a given period of time in the future.

The formalized market development model represents a system of equations covering its main indicators. For each market, the system may have a different number of equations and indicators, but in any case, it must include supply and demand equations.

When compiling a market development model, it is necessary to:

· Firstly, the definition of market development prospects cannot be carried out in isolation from other socio-economic forecasts (demographic, regional, etc.), from similar projections.

· Secondly, taking into account the influence of a large number of factors on the development of the market, the development trends of which may change significantly in the future, determines the need to build several options for market development models and find the best option from several.

· The third essential point that makes up the problem of building a market development model is the determination of the degree of aggregation of product groups. It is necessary to clearly understand at what level the capacity forecast should be built.

All these points largely depend on the forecast period. There are several types of forecasting: short-term (3-6 months), short-term (1-2 years), medium-term (3-5 years), long-term (5-10 years), long-term (more than 10 years). The shorter the period, the easier it is to foresee and correctly assess the degree of influence on the development of the market of determining factors. As the period lengthens, the number of model variants increases.

The main sources of information about the future characteristics of the market are: human experience and intuition; extrapolation of trends, processes, the patterns of development of which in the past and present are sufficiently known; a model of the process under study, reflecting or desirable trends in its development.

Accordingly, there are three complementary ways to develop a forecast:

· Questioning - identifying the opinions of the population, experts in order to obtain estimates of a predictive nature. Questionnaire-based methods are used, as a rule, in cases where, for a number of reasons, the patterns of the development of the process cannot be reflected in the formal apparatus, when the necessary data are not available.

· Extrapolation - continuation into the future of the tendencies of the processes reflected in the form of time series and their indicators, based on the developed models of the regressive type. Extrapolation methods are usually used in cases where information about the past is available in sufficient quantity and stable trends have been identified. This variant is based on the hypothesis of the continuation of the previously established trends in the future. Such a forecast for forecasting is called genetic and involves the study of econometric models.

· Analytical modeling - building and using a model that reflects internal and external relationships in the course of market development. This group of methods is used when there is minimal information about the past, but there are some hypothetical ideas about the market that allow developing its model and, on this basis, assessing the future state of the market and reproducing alternative options for its development. This approach to forecasting is called target (normative).

The separation of methods is somewhat arbitrary. In practice, all of them can mutually intersect and complement each other, since in some cases none of them alone can provide the required degree of reliability and accuracy of the forecast, but they are very effective when used in certain combinations.

The result of the work to determine the market capacity should be a comprehensive analytical review of the state of the market and the factors that formulate it, as well as a multi-variant forecast of the market development, taking into account the trends in the changes of internal and external factors affecting it.

2.3.Market segmentation

Any market in terms of marketing consists of buyers who differ from each other in their tastes, desires and needs. The main thing is that they all acquire real estate, guided by completely different motives. Therefore, it is necessary to understand that with a variety of demand, and even in a competitive environment, each individual will react differently to the proposed objects. It is very difficult to satisfy the needs of all consumers without exception, because they have certain differences in needs.

In-depth market research suggests the need to consider it. In this regard, when planning a business, it is necessary to consider the market as a differentiated structure depending on consumer groups and consumer properties of objects, which in a broad sense defines the concept of market segmentation.

Market segmentation is, on the one hand, a method for finding parts of the market and determining the objects to which the marketing activities of enterprises are directed. On the other hand, it is a managerial approach to the decision-making process of an enterprise in the market, the basis for choosing the right combination of marketing elements. Segmentation is carried out in order to meet the needs of consumers as much as possible, as well as to rationalize the costs of the developer for the development of a program for the construction and sale of a real estate object.

The objects of segmentation are consumers. Highlighted in a special way, having certain common features, they constitute a segment of the market. Segmentation refers to the division of the market into segments that differ in their parameters or response to certain types of activities in the market (advertising, marketing methods). The questionnaire form for surveying consumers of real estate objects is given in Appendix 2.

Despite the possibility of segmenting the market by various objects, the main focus in marketing is on finding homogeneous groups of consumers who have similar preferences and respond in the same way to marketing offers. Success in the competitive struggle ultimately depends on how correctly it is carried out.

Segmentation is not a purely mechanical process. To be effective, it must be carried out taking into account certain criteria and signs.

A criterion is a way of evaluating the rationale for choosing a particular market segment for a particular enterprise, a sign is a way of highlighting a segment in the market.

The most common criteria:

· Quantitative parameters of the segment. This is how many objects and at what total cost can be sold, how many potential consumers are there, on what area they live, etc.

· Availability of the segment for the enterprise-developer, that is, the ability of the enterprise to obtain channels for the distribution and sale of objects to consumers in this market segment.

· The materiality of the segment, that is, the determination of how realistic this or that group of consumers can be considered as a market segment, how stable it is according to the main unifying features.

· Profitability. Based on this criterion, it is determined how profitable the work will be for the enterprise. Calculations are used for evaluation: the rate of return, return on invested capital, the magnitude of the increase in the total mass of the enterprise's profit.

· Compatibility of the segment with the market of the main competitors. It is necessary to get an answer to the question to what extent the main competitors are ready to give up the chosen market segment, to what extent the promotion of this object of the enterprise affects their interests.

· Efficiency of work on the chosen segment of the market. Management must decide whether it has sufficient resources to work in the selected segment, determine what is missing for effective work.

· Protection of the selected segment from competition. In accordance with this criterion, the company's management must evaluate its ability to compete with potential competitors in the selected market segment.

Only after receiving answers to the above questions, and assessing the potential of the enterprise, it is possible to make a decision on market segmentation and the choice of this segment for a particular enterprise.

Among the disadvantages of segmentation, one should mention the high costs associated, for example, with additional market research, with the preparation of options for marketing programs, providing appropriate packaging, using various ways distribution. Segmentation can have advantages and disadvantages, but it is impossible to do without it, because in modern economy each product can be successfully sold only to certain segments of the market, but not to the entire market.

The principles underlying market segmentation must meet the following requirements: be researchable under normal market research conditions; reflect consumer differentiation; identify differences in market structures; contribute to the growth of market understanding.

After dividing the market into separate segments, it is necessary to assess the degree of attractiveness and decide how many segments the company should focus on, in other words, select target market segments and develop a marketing strategy.

Target segment - one or more segments selected for the marketing activities of the enterprise. At the same time, the enterprise should, taking into account the chosen goals, determine strengths competition, size of markets, relationship with distribution channels, profits and your company image.

The issue of choosing the target segment can be solved in one of the following ways. Firstly, it is possible to predict segment differences and release one type of object to the entire market, providing it with marketing means of attractiveness in the eyes of all consumer groups. In this case, a mass marketing strategy is applied.

The third way to select a target market segment is to cover several segments and release a product or variety for each of them. Here, a differentiated marketing strategy is applied with a different marketing plan for each segment. Covering several market segments requires significant resources and capabilities of the enterprise.

Market segments in which the company has secured a dominant and stable position are commonly called a market niche. The creation and strengthening of a market niche, including by finding market windows, is ensured only through the use of market segmentation methods. After determining the target market segment, the enterprise must study the properties and image of competitors' objects and evaluate the position of their objects in the market.

2.4 State of competition and market barriers

AT market economy firms operate in a competitive environment. As marketers note, when studying consumers, one should not forget about competitors.

The main task of competitor research is to obtain the necessary data to ensure competitive advantage on the market, as well as find opportunities for cooperation and cooperation with potential competitors. To this end, analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of competitors, it is first necessary to answer the following questions:

Who are the main competitors of your company in terms of assortment, product groups; geographical distribution; market segments; pricing policy; distribution and distribution channels?

· What is the market share of your company and its main competitors?

What is the competitor's strategy?

· What methods are used by competitors in the struggle for the market?

· What is the financial condition of competitors?

· Organizational structure and management of competitors?

• What is the effectiveness of competitors' marketing programs (product, price, sales and promotion, communications)?

• What is the likely reaction of competitors to your firm's marketing program?

At what stage life cycle Are your product and competitor's product located?

Market entry and exit barriers are the most important characteristics of the market structure. Market entry barriers are factors of an objective or subjective nature, due to which it is difficult and sometimes impossible for new firms to start a business in a chosen industry. Thanks to such barriers, firms already operating in the market can not be afraid of competition. The presence of a barrier to exit from the industry leads to the same results. If exiting an industry in the event of a market failure involves significant costs (for example, production requires highly specialized equipment that would not be easy to sell in the event of a bankruptcy of the firm) - therefore, the risk of operating in the industry is high - the probability of entering the market by a new seller is relatively low.

It is the presence of barriers to entry, combined with the high level of concentration of producers in the industry, that enables firms to raise prices higher. marginal cost and receive positive economic profit not only in the short term, but also in long term, which determines the bargaining power of these firms. Where barriers to entry do not exist or are weak, firms, even when market concentration is high, must take into account competition from actual or potential rivals.

Barriers can be generated by the objective characteristics of the industry market related to production technology, the nature of consumer preferences, demand dynamics, foreign competition, etc. Such barriers are classified as non-strategic factors of the market structure. Another type of barriers are barriers caused by the strategic behavior of firms operating in the market (strategic pricing that limits the entry of potential competitors into the industry, strategic policy in the field of research and innovation spending, patents, vertical integration and product differentiation, etc.).

The first step in studying the competitive environment is to assess the characteristics of the market in which the company operates or intends to operate. Next, you should study who is a real or potential competitor. A competitor is an important element of the marketing system infrastructure that influences the company's marketing strategy in relation to goods, suppliers, intermediaries, and buyers. The study of the positions of competitors covers a wide range of issues and requires the involvement of a significant amount of information. It can be obtained from various sources: general economic, industry, advertising brochures, booklets, catalogs. Often, important information about competitors is available to marketers and intermediaries. Comprehensive and constant study of competitors brings noticeable results.

It is advisable to analyze the characteristics of the main competitors in the following sections: market, product, prices, promotion of the product on the market, organization of sales and distribution. Studying the competitive environment requires systematic observation behind the main competitors, without losing sight of potential competitors. It is advisable to accumulate the information obtained in special data banks. Analysis of information, its interpretation allows specialists to derive reasonable estimates for each competitive factor and characterize general position firms in the market relative to their main competitors.

2.5 Market opportunities and risks

Another market parameter used in the study of the real estate market is the assessment of market opportunities and risks.

Any construction company must be able to identify emerging market opportunities. The search for market opportunities is made after assessing the potential of the enterprise and takes into account the real possibilities of the latter.

Unmet market needs are the basis of market opportunities for an enterprise. In a situation where the buyer is completely satisfied with the supplier's services, the offer of similar goods to him on similar terms by another enterprise will not be successful. At the same time, in this situation, the buyer may have latent unsatisfied needs for a better product, more favorable conditions, more extensive service. Identification of such needs is carried out through the construction of hypotheses: previous experience of the manager or consultant; proposals of the personnel of the enterprise; experience of partners and contractors of the enterprise (suppliers, regular customers, resellers); competitor innovations.

The task at this stage of strategy development is to build as many hypotheses as possible. The main method of obtaining materials at the enterprise and from its partners is a free interview, in which the interlocutors are encouraged to express any, even the most "crazy" ideas. Competitor innovations are tracked through their advertising and from marketing, salespeople, and enterprise salespeople. Individual buyers can be interviewed by questionnaire.

A significant part of the proposed hypotheses is rejected immediately due to a critical inconsistency with the potential of the enterprise. The rest are checked in one way or another, depending on their specifics.

The result of testing hypotheses can be the determination for several of the most promising target groups of consumers of the volume of expected demand in groups, requirements for objects, possible prices, ways of distributing products, methods of sales promotion.

An attractive opportunity identified through hypothesis building should be examined in terms of the size and nature of the market. This process consists of 4 stages: measurements and forecasting of demand; market segmentation; selection of target segments; product positioning in the market.

Having decided on the positioning of its product, the firm is ready to begin planning the details of the marketing mix.

The marketing mix is ​​a set of controllable marketing variables that a firm uses in combination to elicit a desired response from its target market. The marketing mix is ​​everything a firm can do to influence the demand for its product. Numerous possibilities can be divided into 4 main groups (Figure 5):

Figure 5. Components of the marketing mix

A product is a piece of real estate that a firm offers to a target market. Price is the amount of money that consumers must pay to purchase an item. Distribution methods are all kinds of activities that make a product available to consumers. Incentive methods - the activity of disseminating information about the merits of your object and persuading target buyers to buy it.

All decisions regarding the components of the marketing mix largely depend on the specific positioning of the product adopted by the firm.

The work of analyzing marketing opportunities, selecting target markets, developing the marketing mix and implementing it all require supportive marketing management systems. In particular, the firm must have systems marketing information, marketing planning, organization of marketing services and marketing control.

The market is, first of all, economic freedom. There is a price to pay for economic freedom. At the same time, it is natural that those with whom one has to enter into economic relations strive, first of all, for their own benefit, and the benefit of some may become a detriment to others. Whether we like it or not, mastering entrepreneurship comes with uncertainty and increased risk.

It is necessary not to avoid the inevitable risk, but to be able to feel the risk, assess its degree and not go beyond acceptable limits.

In relative terms, risk is defined as the amount of possible losses related to a certain base, in the form of which it is most convenient to take either the property state of the enterprise, or the total cost of resources for this species entrepreneurial activity, or the expected income of profit from entrepreneurship. It is impossible to completely avoid risk, but knowing what causes losses, the enterprise is able to reduce their threat by reducing the effects of an unfavorable factor.

CONCLUSION

Thus, conducting marketing research in the real estate market is a complex multi-stage process that requires deep knowledge of the object of study, the accuracy and timeliness of the results of which largely determine the successful functioning of the entire enterprise.

The experience of modern enterprises clearly indicates the need for such costs, which, if successfully implemented, always pay off with an increase in profits. legal entity due to the best organization its production and marketing activities, created on complex analysis market and aimed at solving problems for the successful sale of products.

Recipe for a good decision: 90% information and 10% inspiration. This is especially true for marketing management. After all, marketing is the main point of contact of the company with its environment.

Through marketing solutions, the firm adapts its products and services to the needs and desires of society. The effectiveness of this process depends largely on the availability and engagement of ongoing information feedback from the market to the firm, which allows the latter to judge the existing situation and evaluate the possibilities of new (modified) actions.

In the course of studying the methods of the real estate market, the author obtained the following main results:

· the structure of marketing information system is considered;

· probing researches, descriptive researches, casual researches are characterized;

· Considered market conditions;

· the characteristic of market capacity is given;

Considered market segmentation;

· the state of competition and market barriers are characterized;

· the characteristics of market opportunities and risks are given.

It should be concluded that real estate market research is absolutely necessary at any time and in any economic situation. The main reality of modern reality is an acute lack of correct and verified information that is important for making a managerial decision - the more important is the ability to conduct marketing research, knowledge of their technology and organization.

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Appendix 1

Comparison of research methods

Table 1

Type of	Advantages	Flaws
Personal interview	1. The interviewer can receive Additional information based on their own observations. 2. Increased control over the sequence of questions. 3. Allows you to collect more detailed information. 4. The percentage of answers to questions is usually higher, since the interviewer can explain what exactly is required. 5. Visual materials (tables, diagrams, samples, prototypes) can be used to demonstrate the concept. 6. Allows you to study in depth the properties of the product and determine ways to solve the problem. 7. Flexible way the interviewer can adjust the questions according to the interests of the respondent. 8. Personal contact often stimulates the participation and interest of respondents.	1. May be more expensive than other methods, especially if a wide geographic coverage is required. 2. The subjectivity of the interviewer can seriously affect the accuracy of the answers and the correctness of their recording. 3. Requires close monitoring of the data collection process. 4. Familiarizing respondents with the survey and collecting data takes a lot of time. 5. Respondents may go astray if the interviewer speaks and writes down answers at the same time. 6. Different interviewers use different approaches, making it difficult to standardize the interview process.
Telephone	1. Fast (faster than interviewing in person or by mail). 2. Inexpensive method (for example, a similar number of personal interviews costs much more). 3. If the respondent is busy at the time of the first contact, you can call back later. 4. The systematic error in the answers is small, since questions with a limited number of answers are usually used. 5. Wide geographic coverage is possible.	1. You can poll only respondents whose phone numbers are in the directory. 2. Usually allows you to collect only a small amount of information. 3. Usually allows you to collect limited classification features. 4. Difficulty gathering information and motivation and attitudes. 5. The method is not suitable for technically complex goods and capital goods. 6. Can be expensive if long distance calls are needed.
	1. Wide distribution is possible at a relatively low cost of a completed questionnaire. 2. Avoiding the subjectivity of the interviewer can contribute to more objective responses. 3. Allows coverage of remote regions (for example, drillers on duty in Saudi Arabia). 4. The respondent, unless asked to provide his name, answers the questions anonymously, and therefore may provide confidential information that is not available using other methods. 5. The respondent can answer questions more readily, as this is done in his spare time.	1. Accurate and up-to-date mailing lists are not always available, which is necessary for the successful distribution of questionnaires. 2. 80-90% of respondents do not return questionnaires. Those who do answer questions tend to have stronger feelings about the subject matter than those who don't. 3. The volume of the questionnaire is limited. 4. It is impossible to control whether the questions are correctly understood and whether the answers are recorded correctly. 5. It is difficult to ask questions one at a time, since the respondent can read the entire questionnaire at once. 6. Requires a lot of time. 7. Not suitable for certain technically complex products.

Annex 2

Dear residents of Abakan and the Republic of Khakassia!

The survey is conducted in order to find out the needs of residents of the city and the republic in improving their living conditions. Your answers will help you identify preferences when choosing properties and develop measures to expand the possibilities of acquiring them.

1. Would you like to improve your living conditions?

2. What housing do you have:

4-room apartment cottage

3. What do you dislike about your home?

area of ​​residence

house type

area

layout

inconvenience

4. What kind of housing would you like to buy?

1-room apartment unfurnished apartment

2-room apartment luxury housing

3-room apartment private house

4-room apartment cottage

5. If you want to buy an apartment, then:

in the primary market

in the secondary market

6. What type of house would you prefer when choosing an apartment?

brick

panel

7. What layout would you like to buy an apartment?

simple

improved

individual

eight . Indicate the cost of housing that you would like to purchase (thousand rubles)?

 450-550  1200-1500

 550-700  1500-2000

 700-1000  2000-3000

1000-1200 from 3000 and more

9. Indicate the amount of the initial payment for housing that is acceptable to you (as a percentage of the cost of the apartment)

10. How do you feel about the possibility of renting out housing to pay for a new one?

I will definitely use

I will try to pay for housing at the expense of other means

11. What is the desired term of the loan you need to purchase a home?

3 years 10 years

5 years 15 years

7 years old 15 and up

12. What is the maximum interest for using the loan you are willing to pay?

13. How much monthly are you ready to pay to pay off the loan (rubles)?

10000 over 20000

Please provide some information about yourself:

14. What is your gender? wife's husband

15. Your age:

16. What is the average monthly income per member of your family?

5000 - 10000 rub.

10000 - 15000 rubles.

from 15000 rub. and more

Thank you for your answers!

1. Anurin V., Marketing. - St. Petersburg:, Peter, 2004. - 186 p.

Yadov V.A. Sociological research. Methodology, program, methods. S.: Delo, - 2005. - 80 p.

O.N.Balakireva, How to conduct research, Library of the journal “Marketing and Advertising”, Student Center, St. Petersburg, -2001, -p.151

Marketing. How to win in the market? / Nozdreva R.B., Tsygichko L.I. - M.: - 2004, - 200 p.

The problem of studying the real estate market is an information problem. In order to assess the volume and structure of the housing supply, it is necessary to obtain information on how many and what kind of premises are available on the market, how many and which ones are being prepared for commissioning, and which of the real estate objects have already been put into operation. According to the data on the sale of housing, one can judge only the realized part of the demand.

The objects of market research are trends and market development processes, including analysis of changes in economic, scientific and technical, demographic, environmental, legislative and other factors. The structure and geography of the market, its capacity, sales dynamics, market barriers, the state of competition, the current situation, opportunities and risks are also being studied. N.V. Vidanov, Marketing and marketing research, 4 (52), - August 2008, - p. 10

The main results of the real estate market research are forecasts of its development, assessment of market trends, identification of key success factors. The most effective ways of conducting a competitive policy in the market and the possibility of entering new markets are determined. Market segmentation is carried out, i.e. selection of target markets and market niches. In order to make informed decisions in any market, it is necessary to have reliable, comprehensive and timely information. The systematic collection, reflection and analysis of data on the problems associated with the functioning of the real estate market constitute the content of marketing research. To be effective, these studies must first be systematic; secondly, rely on specially selected information; thirdly, to carry out certain procedures for collecting, summarizing, processing and analyzing data; fourthly, to use tools specially developed for the purposes of analysis. Thus, marketing activities are built on the basis of special market research and the collection of information necessary for their implementation. The flows of this information are ordered by certain research procedures and methods. Let us dwell on the most important objects of real estate market research.

Conjuncture and forecasting of the real estate market

The general goal of market research is to determine the conditions under which the most complete satisfaction of the population's demand for goods of this type is ensured and the prerequisites are created for the effective sale of produced housing. In accordance with this, the primary task of studying the real estate market is to analyze the current supply and demand ratio, i.e. market conditions. Market conditions are a set of conditions under which activities are currently taking place in the market. It is characterized by a certain ratio of supply and demand for real estate, as well as the level and ratio of prices.

Gathering information is the most important stage in studying market conditions. There is no single source of information about the conjuncture that would contain all the information about the processes under study. The study uses various types of information obtained from various sources. Distinguish information: general, commercial, special.

General information includes data characterizing the market situation as a whole, in conjunction with the development of the industry. The sources of its receipt are the data of state and industry statistics, official forms of accounting and reporting.

Commercial information - data extracted from the business documentation of the enterprise, on sales from partners in the order of information exchange. These include: applications and orders of construction organizations; materials of market research services (materials on the movement of sales, market reviews, etc.).

Special information represents data obtained as a result of special market research activities (surveys of the population, buyers, experts, exhibitions and sales, market meetings), as well as materials from research organizations. Special information is of particular value because it contains information that cannot be obtained in any other way. Therefore, when studying market conditions, special attention should be paid to obtaining extensive special information.

When studying the market situation, the task is not only to determine the state of the market at one time or another, but also to predict the likely nature of its further development for at least one or two quarters, but no more than a year and a half, that is, forecasting.

A market forecast is a scientific prediction of the prospects for the development of demand, product supply and prices, carried out within the framework of a certain methodology, based on reliable information, with an assessment of its possible error. The forecast is based on taking into account the patterns and trends of its development, the main factors determining this development, observing strict objectivity, conscientiousness in assessing data and forecasting results. The development of a market forecast has four stages: establishing the object of forecasting; choice of forecasting method; forecast development process; assessment of forecast accuracy.

Establishing the object of forecasting is the most important stage of scientific foresight. In practice, the concepts of sale and demand, supply and product offer, market prices and selling prices are often identified.

Under certain conditions, such replacements are possible, but with appropriate reservations and subsequent adjustment of the results of forecast calculations. The choice of forecasting method depends on the purpose of the forecast, the period of its lead, the level of detail, and the availability of initial (basic) information.

The process of developing a forecast consists in carrying out calculations performed either manually or using computer programs, followed by correcting their results at a high-quality, professional level. The forecast accuracy is estimated by calculating its possible errors. Therefore, the forecast results are practically presented in interval form.

Market forecasts are classified according to several criteria. In terms of lead time, the following are distinguished: short-term forecasts (from several days to 2 years); medium-term forecasts (from 2 to 7 years); long-term forecasts (more than 7 years). They differ not only in the lead time, but also in the level of detail and forecasting methods used.

According to the essence of the methods used, there are groups of forecasts, the basis of which are: extrapolation of a series of dynamics; interpolation of a series of dynamics - finding the missing members of a dynamic series inside it; demand elasticity coefficients; structural modeling is a statistical table containing a grouping of consumers according to the most significant feature, where for each group the structure of consumption of goods is given. When the structure of consumers changes, both average consumption and demand change.

On this basis, one of the forecasting methods is built: expert assessment. This method is used in the markets for new products, when the underlying information has not had time to form, or in the markets for traditional products that have not been explored for a long time. It is based on a survey of experts - competent professionals; economic and mathematical modeling.

The results of the analysis of predicted indicators of market conditions in combination with reporting and planned data make it possible to develop measures in advance aimed at developing positive processes, eliminating existing and preventing possible imbalances and can be provided in the form of various analytical documents.

1. Consolidated review - a document with generalizing market indicators. The dynamics of general economic and sectoral indicators, special conjuncture conditions are analyzed. A retrospective is carried out and a forecast of the market indicators is given, the most characteristic trends are highlighted, and the interconnections of the market conditions of individual real estate markets are revealed.

2. Thematic review of the conjuncture. Documents reflecting the specifics of a particular market. The most pressing problems typical for a number of objects, or the problem of a particular real estate market, are identified.

3. Operative market information. A document containing operational information about individual processes of market conditions. The main sources of operational information are the data of population surveys, expert assessments of specialists.

Market volume

The main task of real estate market research is to determine the market capacity. Market capacity is the total effective demand of buyers; the possible annual volume of real estate sales at the prevailing average price level. Market capacity depends on the degree of development of this market, the elasticity of demand, on changes in economic conditions, price levels, quality and advertising costs. The capacity of the market is characterized by the size of the demand of the population and the value of supply in the real estate market. At each point in time, the market has a quantitative and qualitative certainty, i.e. its volume is expressed in cost and physical indicators of sold and bought objects.

Two levels of market capacity should be distinguished: potential and real. The real capacity of the market is the first level. The potential level is determined by personal and social needs and reflects the volume of implementation adequate to them. In marketing, the term market potential is also used. The actual emerging market capacity may not correspond to its potential capacity. The calculation of the market capacity must be spatio-temporal certainty.

Market capacity is formed under the influence of many factors, each of which, in certain situations, can both stimulate the market and restrain its development, limiting its capacity. The whole set of factors can be divided into two groups: general and specific. Common are the socio-economic factors that determine the capacity of the market: the volume and structure of supply, including by representative enterprises; the range and quality of the premises provided; the achieved standard of living and needs of the population; purchasing power of the population; the level of price ratio for goods; population; its social and sex and age composition; degree of market saturation; geographical location of the market.

Specific factors determine the development of markets for individual objects, and each market may have factors characteristic only of it. In this case, a specific factor in terms of the degree of influence may be decisive for the formation and development of supply and demand for specific housing. The set of factors that determine the development of supply and demand are in a complex dialectical relationship. A change in the action of some factors causes a change in the action of others. A feature of some factors is that they cause changes in both the overall capacity and the structure of the market, and others - that they, without changing the overall capacity of the market, cause its changes. In the process of market research, it is necessary to explain the mechanism of the system of factors and measure the results of their influence on the volume and structure of supply and demand.

Identification of cause-and-effect relationships in the market under study is carried out on the basis of systematization and analysis of data. Systematization of data consists in the construction of grouped and analytical tables, dynamic series of analyzed indicators, graphs, charts, etc. This is the preparatory stage of information analysis for its quantitative and qualitative assessment. Processing and analysis is carried out using well-known methods, namely grouping, index and graphical methods, construction and analysis of time series. Causal relationships and dependencies are established as a result of the correlation-regression analysis of time series.

Ultimately, a description of the cause-and-effect relationships caused by the interaction of various factors will make it possible to build a development model in the market and determine its capacity. The market development model is a conditional reflection of reality and schematically expresses the internal structure and causal relationships of this market. Marketing in industries and fields of activity. Uch./Ed. V.A. Aleksunina. Moscow: Marketing, 2001. - P.324.

It allows using a system of indicators in a simplified form to characterize the qualitative originality of the development of all the main elements of the market at the present stage and at a given period of time in the future. The formalized market development model represents a system of equations covering its main indicators. For each market, the system may have a different number of equations and indicators, but in any case, it must include supply and demand equations.

Accordingly, there are three complementary ways to develop a forecast.

Questioning - revealing the opinions of the population, experts in order to obtain estimates of a predictive nature. Questionnaire-based methods are used in cases where, for a number of reasons, the patterns of process development cannot be reflected in a formal apparatus, when the necessary data are not available.

1 Extrapolation - continuation of the trends of processes in the future, reflected in the form of time series and their indicators, based on the developed models of the regressive type. Extrapolation methods are usually used in cases where information about the past is available in sufficient quantity and stable trends have been identified. This variant is based on the hypothesis of the continuation of the previously established trends in the future. Such a forecast for forecasting is called genetic and involves the study of econometric models.

2 Analytical modeling - building and using a model that reflects internal and external relationships in the course of market development. This group of methods is used when there is minimal information about the past, but there are some hypothetical ideas about the market that allow developing its model and, on this basis, assessing the future state of the market and reproducing alternative options for its development. This approach to forecasting is called target.

The result of the work to determine the market capacity should be an overview of the state of the market and its factors, as well as a forecast for the development of the market, taking into account trends in influencing internal and external factors.

Market segmentation

Any market in terms of marketing consists of buyers who differ from each other in their tastes, desires and needs. The main thing is that they all purchase goods, guided by different motives. Therefore, it is necessary to understand that with a variety of demand, and even in a competitive environment, each individual will react differently to the proposed real estate. It is very difficult to satisfy the needs of all consumers without exception, because they have certain differences in needs. For example, a number of consumers prefer luxury apartments and are willing to pay the corresponding price, while others have the opportunity to purchase housing with acceptable consumer characteristics at a low price.

In-depth market research suggests the need to consider it. In this regard, when planning your business, you need to consider the market as a differentiated structure depending on consumer groups and consumer properties, which in a broad sense defines the concept of market segmentation.

Market segmentation is, on the one hand, a method for finding parts of the market and determining the objects to which the marketing activities of enterprises are directed. On the other hand, it is a managerial approach to the decision-making process of an enterprise in the market, the basis for choosing the right combination of marketing elements. Segmentation is carried out in order to maximize customer satisfaction, as well as to rationalize the costs of the construction company for the development of a construction program and the commissioning of finished premises.

The objects of segmentation are, first of all, consumers. Highlighted in a special way, having certain common features, they constitute a segment of the market. Segmentation refers to the division of the market into segments that differ in their parameters or response to certain types of activities in the market (advertising, marketing methods). Despite the possibility of segmenting the market by various objects, the main focus in marketing is on finding homogeneous groups of consumers who have similar preferences and respond in the same way to marketing offers.

Segmentation is not a purely mechanical process. To be effective, it must be carried out taking into account certain criteria and signs. A criterion is a way of evaluating the rationale for choosing a particular market segment for a particular enterprise, and a sign is a way of highlighting a segment in the market.

Among the disadvantages of segmentation are the high costs associated, for example, with additional market research, with the preparation of options for marketing programs, providing appropriate packaging, using various distribution methods.

Segmentation has advantages and disadvantages, but it is impossible to do without it, since in the modern economy each product can be successfully sold only to certain market segments, but not to the entire market.

Signs for market segmentation: geographical, demographic, socio-economic, psychographic, behavioral.

Geographical segmentation involves dividing the market into different geographical units: the state, states, regions, counties, cities, communities, as well as the size of the region, population density and population, climatic conditions, remoteness from the manufacturing enterprise. This feature was used in practice earlier than others, which was due to the need to determine the space of the enterprise. Its use is necessary when there are climatic differences between regions or features of cultural, national, historical traditions on the market. A firm may decide to operate in one or more geographic areas, or in all areas, but taking into account differences in needs and preferences determined by geography.

Demographic segmentation consists of dividing the market into groups based on demographic variables such as gender, age, family size, family life stage, income level, occupation, education, religion, race, and nationality. Demographic variables are the most popular factors used to distinguish consumer groups. One of the reasons for this popularity is that needs and preferences, as well as the intensity of consumption, are often closely related precisely to demographic characteristics. Another reason is that demographic characteristics are easier to measure than most other types of variables. Even in cases where the market is not described from a demographic point of view (for example, based on personality types), it is still necessary to conduct with demographic parameters.

Psychographic segmentation. In psychographic segmentation, buyers are divided into groups according to the characteristics of belonging to social class, lifestyle and personality characteristics. Members of the same demographic group can have vastly different demographic profiles.

Behavioral segmentation. Behavioral segmentation divides customers into groups based on their knowledge, attitudes, use of the product, and reaction to the product. Marketers consider behavioral variables to be the most appropriate basis for shaping market segments.

After dividing the market into separate segments, it is necessary to assess the degree of attractiveness and decide how many segments the company should focus on, in other words, select target market segments and develop a marketing strategy.

Target segment - one or more segments selected for the marketing activities of the enterprise. At the same time, the enterprise must, taking into account the chosen goals, determine the strengths of competition, the size of markets, relations with distribution channels, profits and its image of the company.

Market segments in which the company has secured a dominant and stable position are commonly called a market niche. The creation and strengthening of a market niche, including by finding market windows, is ensured only through the use of market segmentation methods. After determining the target market segment, the company must study the properties and image of the real estate of competitors and assess the position of its object in the market.

State of competition and market barriers

In a market economy, firms operate in a competitive environment. Studying consumers, one should not forget about competitors. The main task of competitor research is to obtain the necessary data to ensure a competitive advantage in the market, as well as to find opportunities for cooperation and cooperation with possible competitors. Marketing. Uch. for universities / N.D. Eriashvili and others. M .: Unity-Dana, 2000.-p.365

To this end, analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of competitors, it is first necessary to answer the following questions:

· Who are the main competitors of your company?

· What is the market share of your company and its main competitors?

What is the competitor's strategy?

· What methods are used by competitors in the struggle for the market?

· What is the financial condition of competitors?

· Organizational structure and management of competitors?

• What is the effectiveness of competitors' marketing programs (product, price, sales and promotion, communications)?

• What is the likely reaction of competitors to your firm's marketing program?

At what stage of the life cycle are your product and competitor's product?

The first step in studying the competitive environment is to assess the characteristics of the market in which the company operates or intends to operate. Next, you should study who is a real or potential competitor. A competitor is an important element of the marketing system infrastructure that influences the company's marketing strategy in relation to goods, suppliers, intermediaries, and buyers. The study of the positions of competitors covers a wide range of issues and requires the involvement of a significant amount of information. It is advisable to analyze the characteristics of the main competitors in the following sections: market, product, prices, promotion of the product on the market, organization of sales and distribution.

Studying the competitive environment requires systematic observation of the main competitors, not losing sight of potential competitors. It is expedient to accumulate the obtained information in databanks. Information analysis allows specialists to derive reasonable estimates for each competitive factor and characterize the overall position of the company in the market in relation to its main competitors.

Market opportunities and risks

Any company should be able to identify emerging market opportunities. The search for market opportunities is made after assessing the potential of the enterprise and takes into account the real possibilities of the latter.

Unmet market needs are the basis of market opportunities for an enterprise. In a situation where the buyer is completely satisfied with the supplier's services, the offer of similar goods to him on similar terms by another enterprise will not be successful. At the same time, in this situation, the buyer may have unsatisfied needs for a better object, more favorable conditions, more extensive service. Identification of such needs is carried out through the construction of hypotheses: previous experience of the manager or consultant; proposals of the personnel of the enterprise; experience of partners and contractors of the enterprise; competitor innovations.

The task at this stage of strategy development is to build as many hypotheses as possible. The main method of obtaining materials at the enterprise and from its partners is a free interview, in which the interlocutors are encouraged to express any, even the most "crazy" ideas. Having chosen a segment, the firm must examine all the proposals that are currently in a particular segment. Next, it is necessary to provide the object with an unquestionable, clearly distinct, desirable place in the market and in the minds of target consumers. This is called product positioning in the market. Once the positioning decision has been made, the firm is ready to begin planning the details of the marketing mix.

The work of analyzing marketing opportunities, selecting target markets, developing the marketing mix and implementing it all require supportive marketing management systems. In particular, the firm must have systems for marketing information, marketing planning, marketing organization, and marketing control.

When establishing entrepreneurial risk, the following concepts are distinguished: “Expense”, “Losses”, “Losses”. Any entrepreneurial activity inevitably associated with costs, while losses occur due to unfavorable circumstances, miscalculations and represent additional costs in excess of those planned. This characterizes the category of "risk" from a qualitative point of view, but creates the basis for translating the concept of "entrepreneurial risk" into a quantitative one. Indeed, risk is the danger of loss of resources or income. In relative terms, risk is defined as the amount of possible losses related to a certain base, in the form of which it is most convenient to take either the state of the enterprise or the total cost of resources for this type of entrepreneurial activity.

In order to explore the real estate market, it is necessary to carry out the following activities: it is necessary to assess the volume and structure of the supply of this product, the volume and structure of demand for it and compare these values ​​at a given price level. Then you need to calculate the dependence of demand and product supply on the price and choose such a level at which demand and supply will balance. It is possible to balance supply and demand by changing the latter in one direction or another.

The market research problem is an information problem. In order to assess the volume and structure of the proposal, it is necessary to obtain information about how many and what objects are available on the market, how many and what objects are being prepared for implementation, and what is already being specifically implemented. According to the data on the sale of real estate, one can judge only the realized part of the demand.

The objects of market research are trends and market development processes, including analysis of changes in economic, scientific and technical, demographic, environmental, legislative and other factors. The structure and geography of the market, its capacity, sales dynamics, market barriers, the state of competition, the current situation, opportunities and risks are also being studied. The main results of market research are forecasts of its development, assessment of market trends, and identification of key success factors. The most effective ways of conducting a competitive policy in the market and the possibility of entering new markets are determined. Market segmentation is carried out, i.e. selection of target markets and market niches.

In order to make informed decisions in any market, it is necessary to have reliable, comprehensive and timely information. The systematic collection, reflection and analysis of data on the problems associated with the functioning of the market constitute the content of marketing research. To be effective, these studies must first be systematic; secondly, rely on specially selected information; thirdly, to carry out certain procedures for collecting, summarizing, processing and analyzing data; fourthly, to use tools specially developed for the purposes of analysis. Thus, marketing activities are built on the basis of special market research and the collection of information necessary for their implementation.

The flows of this information are ordered by certain research procedures and methods. Let's dwell on each object of market research.

Market conditions

The general goal of market research is to determine the conditions under which the most complete satisfaction of the population's demand for goods of this type is ensured and the prerequisites are created for the effective marketing of manufactured products. In accordance with this, the primary task of studying the market is to analyze the current supply and demand ratio, i.e. market conditions. Market conditions are a set of conditions under which activities are currently taking place in the market. It is characterized by a certain ratio of supply and demand for goods of this type, as well as the level and ratio of prices.

Three levels of market research are considered: general economic, sectoral and commodity.

An integrated approach to the study of market conditions involves:

use of various, complementary sources of information;

· a combination of a retrospective analysis with a forecast of buyers characterizing the market situation;

· Application of a combination of different methods of analysis and forecasting.

Gathering information is the most important stage in studying market conditions. There is no single source of information about the conjuncture that would contain all the information about the processes under study. The study uses various types of information obtained from various sources. Distinguish information: general, commercial, special.

General information includes data characterizing the market situation as a whole, in conjunction with the development of an industry or a given production. The sources of its receipt are the data of state and industry statistics, official forms of accounting and reporting.

Commercial information is data extracted from the business documentation of the enterprise, on the marketing of manufactured products and received from partners in the course of information exchange. These include:

· Applications and orders of trade organizations;

· materials of market research services of enterprises, organizations and trade institutions (materials on the movement of goods in wholesale and retail organizations, market reviews, proposals for the current replacement of the assortment, etc.).

Special information represents data obtained as a result of special market research activities (surveys of the population, buyers, trade and industry specialists, experts, sales exhibitions, market meetings), as well as materials from research organizations.

Special information is of particular value because it contains information that cannot be obtained in any other way. Therefore, when studying market conditions, special attention should be paid to obtaining extensive special information.

When studying the market situation, the task is not only to determine the state of the market at one time or another, but also to predict the likely nature of its further development for at least one or two quarters, but no more than a year and a half, that is, forecasting.

A market forecast is a scientific prediction of the prospects for the development of demand, product supply and prices, carried out within the framework of a certain methodology, based on reliable information, with an assessment of its possible error.

The market forecast is based on taking into account the patterns and trends of its development, the main factors determining this development, observing strict objectivity and scientific conscientiousness when evaluating data and forecasting results.

In general, the development of a market forecast has four stages: establishing the object of forecasting; choice of forecasting method; forecast development process; assessment of forecast accuracy;

Establishing the object of forecasting is the most important stage of scientific foresight. For example, in practice, the concepts of sale and demand, supply and product offer, market prices and selling prices are often identified.

Under certain conditions, such replacements are possible, but with appropriate reservations and subsequent adjustment of the results of forecast calculations.

The choice of forecasting method depends on the purpose of the forecast, the period of its lead, the level of detail, and the availability of initial (basic) information. If a forecast of the possible sale of a product is made to determine the prospects for the development of a retail trade network, then more rough, estimated methods of forecasting can be used. If it is performed to justify the purchase of specific goods for the next month, then more accurate methods should be used.

The process of developing a forecast consists in carrying out calculations, with the subsequent adjustment of their results at a qualitative, professional level.

The forecast accuracy is estimated by calculating its possible errors. Therefore, the forecast results are almost always presented in interval form. Market forecasts are classified according to several criteria.

In terms of lead time, the following are distinguished: short-term forecasts (from several days to 2 years); medium-term forecasts (from 2 to 7 years); long-term forecasts (more than 7 years). Naturally, they differ not only in the lead time, but also in the level of detail and forecasting methods used.

Market forecasts are distinguished on the basis of a commodity: a specific product, types of goods, product group, complex of goods, all goods.

On a regional basis, market forecasts are made for: specific consumers, administrative regions, large regions, countries, the world.

According to the essence of the methods used, there are groups of forecasts, the basis of which are: extrapolation of a series of dynamics; interpolation of a series of dynamics - finding the missing members of a dynamic series inside it; demand elasticity coefficients; structural modeling - is a statistical table containing a grouping of consumers according to the most significant feature, where for each group the structure of consumption of goods is shown. Expert review. This method is used in the markets for new products, when the underlying information has not had time to form, or in the markets for traditional products that have not been explored for a long time. It is based on a survey of experts - sufficiently competent specialists; economic and mathematical modeling.

The results of the analysis of predicted indicators of market conditions in combination with reporting and planned data make it possible to develop measures in advance aimed at developing positive processes, eliminating existing and preventing possible imbalances and can be provided in the form of various analytical documents.

· Summary review, or report. The main document with generalizing indicators of the market, consumer goods. The dynamics of general economic and sectoral indicators, special conjuncture conditions are analyzed. A retrospective is carried out and a forecast of market indicators is given, the most characteristic trends are highlighted, and interrelations between the market conditions of individual markets are identified.

· Thematic (problematic or commodity) review of the conjuncture. Documents reflecting the specifics of a particular situation or a particular market. The most pressing problems typical for a number of goods, or the problem of a particular product market, are identified.

· Operative (signal) market information. A document containing operational information, which is a kind of "signal", about individual processes of market conditions. The main sources of operational information are data from trade correspondents, surveys of the population, and expert assessments of specialists.

Currently, the real estate market in Russia is developing quite rapidly. Increased investment activity in urban construction. Of real value are real estate market research based on the use of new forms of management in the municipal sector of the economy. However, the analysis of factual material is valuable when it is based on scientific and methodological approaches that reflect the specifics of the phenomenon under study.

In this regard, understanding the real estate market research includes, first of all, a targeted analysis of the market in order to identify trends in its development both in general and in individual segments. General block diagram real estate market research is presented in fig. nineteen.

Stage 1 is carried out by choosing one of the options for goals:

• 1. Research in national and regional aspects as a whole or in separate segments (long-term goals). In this case, the following tasks are solved:
  • a) determining the dynamics of supply and demand in the market, forecasting prices (including by types, types of real estate and forms of production);
  • b) assessing the risks of investing in real estate and profitability in comparison with various investment options;
  • c) assessment of the relative effectiveness of investments.
• 2. Making an informed decision related to a specific facility or project (short-term goals), which includes:
  • a) making decisions on investing in real estate;
  • b) formation of a price or rent policy;
  • c) making decisions on the sale/purchase of real estate.

These two components of the stage are interrelated. The second task in relation to a particular real estate object cannot be realized without studying the general trends in the development of the real estate market.

At stage 2, one of the market research methods is selected (depending on the goal chosen at stage 1), which includes:

• a) monitoring of the real estate market (continuous long-term monitoring of the market with a wide coverage of monitored parameters);
• b) a one-time study of the state and trends in the development of the real estate market. Information is collected according to the following parameters:
  • - the level of prices for various types of real estate;
  • - level of rent;
  • - the number, structure and dynamics of transactions with real estate;
  • - term of exposition of objects in the real estate market;
  • - the level of costs for new construction, reconstruction, modernization;
  • - the value of the costs of real estate transactions;
  • - the number of objects under construction, their purpose and types.

Segmentation (stage 3) refers to the division of the real estate market into segments that differ in their parameters and consumer groups. The real estate market is extremely heterogeneous, each segment “reacts” differently to the same impact. Analyzing the market as a whole, you can only get a general situation, but this increases the likelihood that important details and trends specific to a particular segment in the overall picture are simply leveled, and this can lead to serious errors in further planning.

In order to understand in detail all the intricacies of market participants, to determine the degree of their mutual influence, and also to find out the reactions to influences on the market from the outside (from the environment external to the market), it is necessary to resort not just to the analysis of the market “in general”, but to the analysis individual segment or group of segments. The segmentation stage consists of several processes: the formation of criteria, the choice of method and the implementation of market segmentation, the interpretation of the received segments, the selection of target market segments.

A necessary condition for segmentation is the heterogeneity of customer expectations and customer states. For real estate market segmentation, the main criteria are:

• - geographic features;
• - physical characteristics;
• - functional purpose;
• - demographic characteristics;
• - socio-economic criterion;
• - a set of features (general objective criteria).

A market segment is a large group of participants within a market that is identified by some criteria and has some general characteristics, for example, people who want to improve their living conditions in the near future by purchasing an apartment in the property in a panel house. In this case, when developing marketing policy it would be inappropriate for a panel housing company to develop a package of offers for each individual buyer of an apartment, depending on his needs, purchasing power, region of residence, habits and priorities. In this case, it is preferable to single out several general segments of the consumer market, concentrating your marketing efforts on them. Here it is extremely important to correctly select these segments and analyze their characteristics. Otherwise, marketing efforts will be scattered throughout the real estate market and will not bring the expected effect, or some segment will be “missed”, and profit will be lost along with it.

A niche is a narrower group of buyers whose needs are not sufficiently satisfied by the company's competitors. In order to highlight a niche, it is enough to divide the segment into smaller components and identify a group of buyers who are united by the desire to receive a particular combination of benefits. For example, the segment of people who want to improve their living conditions in the near future by purchasing an apartment in a panel house may include both those who want to buy an apartment in mass development areas and those who would prefer a residential area. Since the market segments are quite large, they are easily identified by competing companies. In turn, niches are much smaller than market segments, which means that the intensity of competition in them is lower. Niche-serving companies are usually well informed about the needs of customers and strive to better satisfy them, knowing that consumers will be more willing to pay money for this understanding.

In some cases, at the last levels of market segmentation, each buyer is considered as a separate segment. This situation is especially typical for the elite housing market. Understanding what a particular person is guided by when choosing an apartment worth more than half a million dollars is just as important for a company working with luxury housing as determining needs in the prefabricated housing segment.

Positioning (stage 4) is carried out to assign a property to a specific market segment, as well as to determine the competitiveness of the object within the segment (indicated in stage 3). Positioning factors can be:

• - physical and moral depreciation of a separate property;
• - "image" of the property;
• - quality and image of the location of the object;
• - price-quality ratio of the property;
• - a service offered to clients from a company operating in the real estate market;
• - the ratio of the above factors.

Determining the market capacity (stage 5) is the establishment of the possible amount of a particular type of real estate that can be consumed on the market for a certain time, at a given level and price ratio. At any given moment in time, the real estate market has a quantitative and qualitative certainty.

There are two levels of market capacity: potential and real. Calculation of the capacity of the real estate market is spatio-temporal certainty.

The main sources of information about the future characteristics of the real estate market are:

• - appeal to the experience of previous time periods and intuition (questionnaires);
• - extrapolation of trends, processes, the patterns of development of which in the past and present are sufficiently known (extrapolation);
• - modeling of the process under study, reflecting the expected trends in its development (analytical modeling).

Step 1: setting fixed market boundaries and highlighting the analyzed segment. It is carried out in the same way as step 3.

Step 2: analysis of supply and demand factors affecting the real estate market. An analysis of the factors affecting the real estate market is carried out using the construction of the Parreto curve, which is called the "fishbone". In general, the factor space can be represented as follows (Fig. 21).

Rice. 21. Causal relationships between factors affecting the real estate market: 1 - factors state regulation real estate market: 1.1 - regulations governing real estate purchase and sale transactions; 1.2 - tax legislation governing real estate transactions; 1.3 - separate regulations restricting real estate transactions at the regional level. 2 - general economic situation: 2.1 - production of national income; 2.2 - volume of industrial production; 2.3 - employment of the able-bodied population; 2.4 - rate of return on financial assets; 2.5 - country's balance of payments; 2.6 - state trade balance; 2.7 - capital inflows; 2.8 - capital outflows; 2.9 - growth of incomes of the population; 2.10 - consumer price index. 3 - economic situation and investment activity at the regional level: 3.1 - economic development of the region; 3.2 - diversification of employment of the able-bodied population; 3.3 - economic prospects for the development of the region; 3.4 - capital inflows into the region; 3.5 - capital outflows from the region. 4 - social status in the region: 4.1 - the possibility of strikes and interethnic clashes; 4.2 - relation to private capital; 4.3 - attitude towards foreign capital; 4.4 - stability of the policy of the administration of the region; 4.5 - unemployment rate in the region; 4.6 - popularity of the policy pursued by the administration of the region. 5 - natural conditions in the region: 5.1 - ecological situation in the region; 5.2 - availability of developed infrastructure.

Step 3: study of the economic potential of the market and the prospects for its development. The possible quantitative value of real estate objects on the market as a commodity is determined. The following factors should be taken into account in the analysis:

• - degree of coincidence and difference between local conditions and general economic situations;
• - information about real estate transactions and the beginning of new construction;
• - data on the production of heat and electricity;
• - diversification in the field of employment and income of the population of the region, prospects for changes in the noted indicators;
• - strengthening (weakening) of demand for specific types of real estate;
• - cyclic fluctuations business activity(determination of the state of the region).

Step 4: analysis of the volume of the real estate market. The number of objects that consumers (buyers, tenants) not only want, but can also purchase on the real estate market for a certain period is determined. This takes into account indicators such as:

• - changes in employment and incomes of the population;
• - dynamics of formation and disintegration of families;
• - opportunities and financial conditions for obtaining loans for the purchase of housing;
• - the level of housing prices;
• - the amount of expenses for the maintenance of housing;
• - expectations of the population regarding changes in prices, taxes, inflation, etc.

Step 5: study of the existing and projected supply in the real estate market (determination of the possible share of the real estate market). The number of objects that can be put on the market for sale or rent for a certain period is determined. The following factors are being studied:

• - the availability of land plots for development (which, in turn, is determined by physical capabilities - the presence of undeveloped land plots that suit developers; administrative circumstances - the complexity and duration of the procedure for obtaining a building permit and economic indicators - the form of ownership and the price of land);
• - prices for contract work;
• - efficiency of applied building technologies;
• - the level of competition in the real estate market;
• - availability of sources of financing (in terms of volumes, mechanisms for attracting finance);
• - developers' expectations regarding demand, supply and competition in the market;
• - proposals for new real estate in a certain segment of the region's market, the rate of free real estate in this market;
• - the level of employment and solvency of the population of the region and the prospects for changes in these indicators;
• - information on comparable sales;
• - level of change environmental situation, infrastructure;
• - expectations of the population regarding the level of their income, employment, etc.;
• - trends and prospects for the development of the real estate market.

Step 6: calculation of the market capacity of a certain type of real estate (comparison of factors that directly affect the level of supply and demand).

For residential real estate, the market capacity of a certain type of real estate (leased real estate) is calculated by the formula:

For other types of real estate and forms of ownership, a similar calculation is carried out.

The result of the real estate market research is a SWOT analysis of a specific type of real estate (stage 6).

The SWOT methodology (strength - strength, weakness - weakness, opportunities - opportunities, dangers - threats) involves first identifying the strengths and weaknesses, as well as the dangers and opportunities of a particular type of real estate. After that, chains of links between them are established, which can later be used to form a strategy in the real estate market.

The main characteristics by which you can make a list of strengths, weaknesses, dangers and opportunities of a particular type of property are:

• - location (geographical position);
• - environmental conditions;
• - availability of amenities various kinds transport, access roads, exits, etc.);
• - offer the necessary additional services(shops, schools, gyms, etc.);
• - reputation (image) of the place (absence of environmentally harmful places, landfills, etc.).

Then a SWOT matrix is ​​compiled, on the basis of which links are established between strong and weaknesses, dangers and real estate opportunities to justify and select appropriate market strategies (Table 3).

Thus, the study of the real estate market consists of 6 interrelated and complementary stages, each of which can be carried out independently of the others.

Table 3

SWOT - analysis of commercial real estate

Strengths (strengths)	Strategy / Action Needed
1. A wide range of real estate development options (retail and office centers, warehouses etc.) 2. The possibility of attracting investment resources for the implementation of real estate development projects 3. A professional and structured marketing department that performs the functions of market analysis and promotion of real estate to consumers (owners) 4. Business reputation with clients and business partners	1. Ability to manage real estate at all stages of its life cycle, including construction and operation 2. Flexible rental policy and availability of employees for interested clients 3. Construction and maintenance of real estate objects with an optimal price / quality ratio 4. Timely repair of real estate to prevent its decapitalization
Weaknesses (weaknesses)	Strategy / Action Needed (strategy / necessary actions)
1. Decrease in activity in the commercial real estate markets 2. The business of private property operating organizations is underdeveloped	1. Business diversification, development of new segments of the real estate market 2. Creation of a system of tenement houses (elite housing subject to rent)
Opportunities (opportunities)	Strategy / Action Needed (strategy / necessary actions)
1. Investment attractiveness of real estate in conditions of significant inflation 2. Special projects for structures with a large independent budget 3. Joint projects with the city administration for the management of municipal real estate (based on a trust)	1. active work to identify and form new sources of investment in profitable real estate 2. Studying real estate markets in other regions of the country 3. Logistics development effective development real estate objects
Threats	Strategy / Action Needed (strategy / necessary actions)
1. Political instability 2. Increasing inflation rate 3. Accumulation of non-payments (including rent) 4. Unbalanced budgets cities and regions	1. Forecast and warning of possible changes 2. Minimization of financial risk. 3. Increase in profitability from the use of real estate 4. Creation of a rational structure of the profitable real estate portfolio