The country has an external balance when. Trade balance, its role in the country's economy. Trade balance and economic policy

The balance of trade, or net exports, is compiled from statistics customs authorities regarding transactions for the sale and purchase of assets in the world market.

The trade balance is included in the country's balance of payments, which reflects the amount of financial transactions between the state and international partners.

Foreign trade balance

The trade balance determines the country's competitiveness in international market and its economic condition. This indicator is measured by subtracting the value of goods and services entering the country from the value of those exported.

Foreign Trade Balance = Export Value - Import Value

The algorithm can be used for tangible assets and separately for services. The calculation results can be as follows:

• A trade surplus (surplus) that occurs when exports outnumber imports. It indicates a great demand for local products, which increases its price and strengthens the national currency. Exports are increasing due to the creation of jobs, the development of high-tech production, and the extraction of natural resources (oil, gas, etc.). A surplus increases a country's gross domestic product (GDP).
• A negative trade balance (deficit) that occurs when imports outnumber exports. A trade deficit appears when domestically produced products do not meet the needs of the population or have low competitiveness in the international market. The growth of imports contributes price competition on the domestic market which prevents inflation. The deficit leads to a decrease in the value (devaluation) of the national currency, a reduction in employment and a decline in production. To eliminate the negative consequences of the state apply the policy of protectionism. They set customs tariffs, import quotas to protect the national industry from foreign competition.
• Net balance (net balance) that occurs when the volume of exports is equal to the volume of imports. Cash receipts from the sale of goods in the foreign market cover the costs incurred for the purchase of foreign products.

Trade balance and economic policy

The foreign trade balance depends on the country's economic policy. The states that are in the free trade zone exchange goods without restrictions on import and export and focus on imports to attract foreign investment. The formation of the trade balance is affected by:

• difference in production costs (land, labor, capital) between trading partners;
• availability of raw materials, materials, natural resources;
• change in exchange rates;
• taxes and restrictions on international trade;
• availability of currency, reserves to pay for imports;
• domestic prices for exported goods.

Economically developed countries import a large number of raw materials from developing countries. Value-added products (consumer goods) made from these materials can be shipped to other states. Developed countries are characterized by a trade deficit because they consume more raw materials than they export.

The basis of the balance of payments is the balance of trade. Trade (foreign trade) balance characterizes the export and import of goods. The trade balance is positive if a country exports more goods and services than it imports from abroad. In this case, the trade balance has a surplus. If imports are greater than exports, then the trade balance is negative or in deficit. Therefore, changes in the current account balance are associated with changes in domestic output and employment.

The trade balance is built on the basis of data customs statistics, which takes into account the volumes of goods actually crossing the border, while the balance of payments takes into account payments and receipts during foreign trade turnover, which in time may not coincide with the movement of goods.

Foreign trade balance of the country- the ratio of the value of goods exported and imported during a certain period of time (for example, for one calendar year). The foreign trade balance includes goods transactions actually paid for and carried out on credit. The foreign trade balance is compiled for individual countries and for groups of states.

The trade balance has its balance. trade balance- this is the annual (quarterly or monthly) indicator of the country's foreign trade transactions. If the trade balance has a positive balance, this means that in monetary terms (the volume of goods is converted into money), more goods were sent abroad (exports) than received from other countries (imports). If the balance is negative, then the import of goods prevails over the export. A positive trade balance indicates the demand for the goods of a given country in the international market, as well as the fact that the country does not consume everything that it produces. A negative trade balance indicates that a country, in addition to its own goods, also consumes foreign goods. A negative trade balance in countries such as the United States and Great Britain makes it possible to contain inflation and maintain a high standard of living by moving labor-intensive industries outside the state.

In the US, the trade deficit, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, in 2006 will amount to 836 billion dollars (due to the consumption of cheap Asian and Mexican goods, as well as raw materials). In Russia, a positive trade balance in 2006 (according to the Central Bank) will amount to more than 120 billion dollars (mainly due to the sale of energy resources and metals abroad). In underdeveloped countries, a negative trade balance indicates the non-competitiveness of the export sectors of the economy, which often leads to devaluation (depreciation) Money such countries due to the fact that they cannot pay for import purchases. Countries such as the US and the UK have capital-intensive and high-tech industries economy that attracts significant amounts of capital from around the world in the form of portfolio or direct investment. However, due to the lack of competitiveness of export industries, these countries are forced to cover the bulk of the trade deficit by issuing private and government debt instruments.

The balance of trade is a certain part of the payment, which characterizes the trade relations of the state with other countries. As its components there are import and export of goods. Thus, the balance of trade is the difference between the volumes of imports and exports of various goods. If there is a significant predominance of exports over imports, then this indicates that a sufficiently large inflow of foreign currency is carried out into the country, as a result of which the national currency rate begins to increase. Similarly, if the trade balance shows that there is too much import over export, then this indicates that the goods of this country have a rather low competitiveness abroad. This information is published every month, but the currency market often reacts poorly to this information.

What it is?

As mentioned above, the country's trade balance is the ratio of the value of imports, as well as exports of certain products for a certain period of time. The foreign trade balance, along with the actually paid contracts, also includes those transactions that were carried out on credit. With actually paid contracts, the foreign trade balance is a separate element of the country's balance of payments.

What does it show?

Russia's trade balance is one of the most important indicators of how effectively a country participates in international trade, as a result of which it is a separate part of the balance of payments. This balance is the ratio between the sum of the prices of goods that were exported abroad, as well as the sum of the cost of products that were imported into the country. Initially, a detailed analysis of exports is carried out for the reason that it directly affects how much the economy grows.

Import, in turn, determines the demand for goods directly within the country, and if imports grow, then in this case, the formation of stocks is determined, which may indicate a possible further slow growth in sales. The trade balance formula can show different results, as they are highly dependent on the exchange rate, which adjusts the nominal amount of import receipts in the national currency.

Why is it needed?

In the vast majority of cases, the balance of trade formula is calculated for the year and includes the value of all goods that were purchased or sold on an instant payment basis, supplied on credit or even completely free of charge in the form of government assistance or a present. At the same time, it is worth noting that, minus the latest indicators, the active trade balance is entered directly into the balance of payments.

The active part of this balance reflects the export of products that were produced, mined or grown in the country, as well as all kinds of goods that were previously imported into the country from abroad and subsequently subjected to certain processing. The passive part includes the import of foreign products for the purpose of domestic consumption or processing with further export. The difference between the price of imports and exports is the trade balance. A positive trade balance is a situation in which the price of exports is greater than the price of imports, otherwise the balance is called a passive balance. If in the trade balance the passive and active parts are equal, then it is called "net balance".

How is it composed?

Compilation of the trade balance is carried out by authorized financial statistics, as well as foreign trade bodies of each individual country. At the same time, it should be noted that if the trade balance is considered commercial enterprise, then in this case it is determined by the department of relevant specialists.

These calculations are carried out in order to determine the foreign economic position of a company or country, to clarify the level of competitiveness own products, as well as the purchasing power of the national currency used. Technology for calculating the cost of imports and exports in various countries differs in its features, in connection with which it is quite difficult to compare the corresponding indicators.

The UN Statistical Commission recommends to all countries to use a single technology in relation to the system itself, as well as the basis for recording price indicators in their own foreign trade. In particular, when forming the balance of trade, it is necessary to take into account the price of all imported goods, based on the FOB basis, that is, the price of the imported goods includes its price at the border or at various exit ports of the selling country, as well as all kinds of expenses associated with insurance or delivery of products to the border of the consumer country. At the same time, the price of the exported goods bears all the costs of the seller associated with the delivery of the goods to the exit port or to their own border, including all kinds of duties and other similar fees.

From what will be present trade balance, the economy depends in the most direct way. In this regard, in the overwhelming majority of cases, when compiling the trade balance, countries fully comply with the technology recommended by the UN Statistical Commission. Approximately 30 countries record the price of imports and exports based on FOB.

Trade balance of capitalist countries

The balance sheet of the capitalist countries includes the spontaneous nature of economic development, the aggravation of the situation on the existing sales market, inflation, the currency crisis, and many other processes. The uneven political and economic development of capitalism is reflected in a change in the balance of power between several competitors, as well as in a significant aggravation of the trade war between countries or customs and economic groupings of various imperialist states.

In the current practice of the capitalist countries, such technologies for equalizing the trade balance as the introduction of customs duties, quantitative restrictions on the import of certain products, all kinds of credit and tax incentives, devaluation, revaluation, financing of exports from the budget, the introduction of a plurality of exchange rates, as well as a number of other methods.

How is it reflected?

If the whole world buys the export goods of a certain country, but at the same time, buyers in the domestic market also prefer to buy domestic goods, then we can say that the economy of this country is in good condition. At the same time, the trade deficit shows that the goods of this state are not the most competitive, and its inhabitants must take certain actions in order to ensure the protection of their own standard of living.

However, such an analysis is fair if the change in the trade balance was caused by a decrease or increase in demand for the goods of this state, but it is worth noting the fact that many other reasons can actually influence this indicator. , including also a good investment climate that generates an influx of investments into the country and, consequently, an increase in equipment purchases from abroad, which ultimately leads to a trade deficit, despite the fact that the state of the economy of this state is not getting worse.

Current account balance

The current account balance can be called the most informative, since it includes absolutely all asset flows, including official and private, that are associated with the movement of all kinds of services and goods. A positive current account balance indicates that the country's credit has higher rates compared to the debit in terms of the movement of services and goods, and also demonstrates the volume of obligations of non-residents in relation to residents.

In other words, if there is a positive balance, then this indicates that given country is a net investor relative to other states. At the same time, if there is a current account deficit, this indicates that this state eventually becomes a net debtor and must pay for additional net imports of products.

How important is he?

During the development of the economic school of the mercantilists, the equilibrium was established in accordance with the terms of the balance sheet on the account of current operations, while the indicated balance did not take into account the movement of capital, as well as all kinds of changes that occurred in the gold and foreign exchange reserves of a particular country. Thus, the main goal of economic policy in this case was to maximize the current account surplus in order to ensure the accumulation of gold in the country. Today, it is already obvious that such a statement is not without foundation, because it is the state of the active operations account that has a direct impact on the real income of the state, as well as the standard of living of people living in it.

Thus, in the process of integrating the active account into the current system National accounts, it can be determined that the occurrence of a deficit in this account indicates that the country's expenses significantly exceed its income, which cannot be financed in any other way than through the inflow of foreign borrowed capital for a long period.

Features of a closed economic system

In a closed economic system saving should have the same value as investment, while in an open economy these indicators may differ depending on the state of the current account. If there is a surplus of imports over exports, then this implies that investment has a higher value than saving for the amount of the deficit, which cannot be present if there is no long-term foreign capital inflow to finance this deficit.

Possible risks

However, there is a danger of maintaining the current account deficit through long-term capital inflows for several reasons. First of all, this concerns the high liquidity of the instruments used to service this capital inflow. The country's economy is highly dependent on the state of world monetary and financial markets, which are extremely subject to various speculative price fluctuations.

The foreign trade balance is the ratio of the value of import and export of products for a particular time period. The foreign trade balance, along with actually paid transactions, also includes transactions made on credit. With actually paid commodity transactions, the foreign trade balance is part of the state's balance of payments. When transactions are carried out on credit, the foreign trade balance is included in the settlement balance of the country.

The foreign trade balance is formed both for individual countries and for groups of countries. The foreign trade balance is called active if the value of exported goods exceeds the value of imported ones. In the case when the value of imported goods exceeds the value of exported goods, the foreign trade balance is passive.

A positive foreign trade balance indicates the demand for the goods of a particular country in the markets of the world or that the state does not consume all the goods it produces. A negative balance indicates that in addition to its own goods, foreign goods are also consumed in the country.

The difference between the cost of imported goods and exported products is called the balance. The trade balance is an annual indicator (in some cases - quarterly) of the country's foreign trade transactions.

A positive balance (or a decrease in the size of a negative balance) is a favorable factor for the growth of the national currency.

The foreign trade balance is one of the few indicators that has not an indirect, but a direct impact on the exchange rate, since it reflects the movement of funds between countries for the goods and services provided. However, the paradox is that the reaction of the exchange rate to this report is minimal due to technical and structural reasons, namely: the report is too late from the time when the real movement of values ​​took place, in addition, the movement of capital, due to trade relations, is somewhat times less than the movement of capital associated with the work of credit and stock markets, and the cycles of these two streams usually do not coincide. With an increase in the foreign trade deficit, the demand for foreign currency increases and the local currency exchange rate falls. The foreign trade balance is influenced by indicators of domestic demand, since they determine the dynamics of imports, as well as the exchange rate itself, which adjusts the nominal value of import receipts in local currency.

For foreign exchange markets, the total balance is key indicator. At the beginning, exports are analyzed, because. it has a direct impact on the value of growth in the economy. Imports reflect the demand for goods in a country. The increase in imports reflects the formation of stocks, which may indicate a possible subsequent slow increase in sales.

In the future, specific product groups are analyzed. There are several special exports and imports that can significantly affect the trade balance. For example, oil in terms of imports (especially the increase in its price) and aviation in terms of exports. Depending on product categories, the growing deficit created by a small drop in exports could push fixed income markets in either direction. Unlike other sectors of the economy, there is no consistent relationship between the foreign trade balance and the phases of the business cycle. During recessions in net exports, other indicators may either improve or worsen. The main reason is the different synchronization of business cycles in the country and abroad, as well as the duration of the cycle changes in the country and abroad. Exports show consistent growth during the expansion phase of the country's business cycles, but this relationship is broken again during recessions and recovery.

Trade balance– trade balance: the difference between receipts and expenditures for foreign trade transactions countries. A positive trade balance indicates that a country's exports exceed its imports. Accordingly, the negative balance shows the inverse ratio of the number of imported and exported goods.

In simple terms, the trade balance is the difference between a country's exports and imports.

What is a trade surplus?

Positive trade balance characterized by the predominance of exports of goods and services over imports and is an indicator of a high level of demand for the country's goods on the world market, as well as sometimes an oversupply of goods produced.

What is a negative trade balance?

Negative trade balance indicates the widespread consumption of foreign goods. It is generally accepted that a positive balance is better than a negative one, because. in this case, the local producer is supported, and hence the country's economy. It is precisely the negative balance of foreign trade operations that can speak of an underdeveloped and uncompetitive economy. Most often, this situation leads to what happens as a result of the inability to pay for import transactions.

But this phenomenon also has a positive side, namely the possibility of curbing inflation and maintaining a high standard of living. The United States of America and Great Britain can serve as such examples.

Why does a Forex trader need a trading balance?

The trade balance indicator is one of the few indicators that can have a direct, not indirect, effect on fluctuations. This is explained as follows: the trade balance reflects a constant movement financial resources between partner countries related to the provision of certain goods and services in accordance with the contract.

It is worth noting the existence of one paradox, which lies in the fact that the reaction of the national currency exchange rate to the report on the trade balance is minimal, and all because of the structural and technical reasons. That is, the report is characterized by a certain delay. The reason for this is the time required for its preparation and execution. Therefore, the dynamics of the exchange rate very rarely reflects the true flow of values ​​and material resources between trading partners.