Decision-making process management. Hierarchy of decision-making on management Management decision-making in various systems

The question of choice will always be relevant for a person, regardless of his age, gender, nationality, education, etc. Life experience, of course, teaches, and over time it becomes easier to make decisions, but it does not at all give any guarantee that all decisions, without exception, will be correct and effective. Decision making is a skill that requires a lot of effort to master, as well as a lot of a large number of knowledge.

You can go here in different ways: either learn everything by trial and error, spending a lot of time and nerves on it, or look for an opportunity to get the required information in a structured and compact form, thereby saving your mental and time resources. We believe that you are on our site for a reason, and the presented Decision Making course was created to help you learn how to make decisions quickly and correctly.

From our course, you will not only learn that much of what is happening around is subject to specific rules and patterns, but also get acquainted with a variety of practical techniques and techniques, tips and recommendations that greatly facilitate human activities in everyday life, training and at work.

What is decision making and why is it important

We have to choose the strategy of our behavior in most life situations, and we always choose, even when it seems to us that we are not doing it. But the decision-making skill is, of the many options, the one that will affect the situation in the best way. Simply put, there is a certain objective function that helps to evaluate the "usefulness" of a particular situation. It can concern not only the person making the choice, but also his relatives, friends, colleagues, or in general the whole of humanity. And the ability to make decisions is the skill of choosing a scenario with the maximum value of the objective function. It is important to note that the choice is not always correct objectively - it is simply the best in the opinion of a particular person.

There are situations in which it is difficult to make a choice and make a decision. For example, the above objective function can produce the same values, different options can be equivalent, both scenarios can be equally valuable to a person. And if he cannot make a decision, he can be characterized as.

Another variant of difficulties with decision-making is expressed in the fact that the objective function is not set. In other words, a person simply does not know what he wants. This case is much more complicated and requires a more serious determination of the causes of the difficulties.

Based on the foregoing, the ability to make decisions is a whole set of skills:

• The skill of seeing the maximum number of possible solutions
• (objective function definitions) for each specific situation
• The skill of choosing one solution among all their many

It would not be superfluous to note that all these functions for a person initially (while he is in childhood) are performed by adults. But the older he gets, the more choices he has to make himself. And it is generally accepted that upon reaching adulthood, a person is already able to make any decisions that determine his future life.

A person develops further, and is already learning to make decisions that concern not only him, but also other people. Those. he learns to make decisions for others, for example, at home or manage employees at work. This skill is also very important, but it is also more difficult, because. the number of choices expands, and the objective function includes personal interests and the interests of others.

If a person does not know how to make decisions, he will be torn between options, which leads to inconsistent actions and even letting the situation take its course. And here it is important to note that he does not decide to do nothing, choosing this strategy as optimal, but simply does not make any decision at all, remaining a passive observer.

But such passivity is acceptable only in rare cases - when the situation is positive and does not require intervention. When things get worse, whether it's a specific person or a group of people, changing it always requires action. Actions are a reasonable act, and behind each of them there is a decision taken to perform it. A person who is not able to make a decision is also unable to take actions to resolve negative situations.

All this suggests that the ability to make a decision is, first of all, the ability to act, resolve situations, solve problems and improve own life. And how much a person owns this skill can depend on his own life and professional results, as well as the results of other people. And here is the time to talk about professional solutions.

The Importance and Significance of Management Decisions

Terms modern market are very tough and the competition is very high. In such an environment where all companies and organizations have similar technologies, high-performance, correct and rational decisions at all levels of management play a huge role in success, competitive confrontation and achievement of set goals.

Management decisions are defined as methods of purposeful influence on management objects, based on the analysis of reliable information characterizing a specific management situation, as well as setting the goal of influence and ways to achieve this goal.

Decision-making from this position is one of the main, and sometimes even the most responsible functions performed by managers or departments of organizations and enterprises. The need to constantly make managerial decisions pervades literally all areas of activity of leaders and managers. For this reason, everyone who is somehow involved in management must understand the essence of the decision-making process. The effectiveness of the organization as a whole depends on how adequate and timely management decisions will be.

Speaking specifically about Russia, in our country for a very long time there were no attempts to professionally train management staff to make decisions. This was greatly influenced by the presence of an administrative-command apparatus, in which all serious decisions were made at the highest level of various departments and ministries. The lower levels were engaged only in execution.

But as we move to market economy responsibility for taking management decisions increased significantly at all levels. Each decision made began to influence the position of organizations, and there are no higher authorities controlling this.

Today, when the economy is developing very intensively, leaders are increasingly faced with the need to look for new ways to solve problems, which is associated with great risks. Management decisions associated with a large number of processes are now distinguished by the complexity of their development and a high degree of responsibility.

This determines the special importance among managers of different levels of the skill of developing, adopting and implementing highly effective management decisions, taking into account all prospects and risks. Actually, this once again indicates the relevance of the course offered to your attention.

Fundamentals of Decision Making

In this small section of the introduction, despite its theoretical and fact-finding focus, we still want to offer some useful recommendations, based on which you can now rethink something and increase the effectiveness of your decisions. The information provided will teach you how to do more right choices in education, work, business, family and friendships, and in any other area of ​​life.

Get rid of frames

When thinking gives you only two options: "Yes" or "No", you are trapped in the framework. Choosing between them, you get stuck in the boundaries of just one alternative and ignore the rest. Instead, you need to look for a solution in another plane, despite the desire and instinctive desire to keep everything simple and avoid diversity.

In addition, people often try to find an option between two extremes, despite the possibility of finding a compromise or the simultaneous implementation of both options without having to make a choice. Situations in which several options are available at the same time, although not often, but occur.

Never be in a hurry to make a decision. It is much more correct to try to see the maximum number of options. This will allow you to better orient yourself and protect yourself from the influence of emotions, which is not always useful.

There is no need to be overly attached to the goal that thinking initially sets for itself. From this, the ability to make decisions becomes inert, and we see only what confirms the decision, and what contradicts it remains unnoticed.

The obvious choice is not always the best one, and there may be better decisions behind it. It is dangerous to be tied to one decision, and in order to expand the choice, one should carry out comparative analysis other ways.

Gather Information

Before making any decision, you need to collect topical issue as much information as possible. It can be obtained from other people, from the Internet or books, from some other third-party sources.

A large amount of information will expand your vision of the problem, highlight the initially invisible details and subtleties of the issue, and make your understanding of the situation more objective. With a sufficient amount of information, it will be possible to evaluate all the pros and cons of the available options, and therefore make a choice in favor of the most suitable one.

Don't get emotional

As we said, emotions, especially momentary ones, often create serious obstacles in decision making. Due to emotions, you can lose sight of something important, focus on small things that often turn out to be insignificant.

Impulse and unconscious decisions lead to severe and not always reversible consequences, because in the process of such a choice a person is blinded by emotions and is not able to see the whole picture.

Set Priorities

For decisions to be correct, you must always. Many difficulties are due to the fact that a person makes decisions (or tries to do so) based on values ​​that do not correspond to basic priorities.

Think about it: why are you making a choice at all? How suitable are the available options for your parameters? Will you be comfortable after the decision is made? Only through understanding what you really need can you come to the right decision.

Among other things, decisions that run counter to priorities often cause internal contradictions and conflicts with oneself, and mental health largely depends on this. Remember that making the right decisions, in addition to everything else, you also take care of your health. Priorities are always higher for those decisions that contribute to the achievement of your main goals.

Consider simple solutions

Earlier we said that instead of one alternative, you need to look for several, but there are some limitations here. For example, a wide range of options similar to each other is far from simplifying the decision. If the number of such options grows, the number of variables that serve as the basis for selection will also increase. And the more variables, the more difficult the choice.

In this case, you can use advice from the poker literature, which says that you need to create space for simple solutions. You need to try to avoid the need to make difficult decisions. This requires not the first stages to determine the basic priorities in order to understand what is really important, and what can be overlooked.

By doing this, you, firstly, will save the lion's share of time for thinking and analyzing all the options, and, secondly, you will simplify the task of choosing for yourself, because. only the most optimal alternatives will be at your disposal.

Try

You can think about everything FOR and AGAINST indefinitely. But it's much more productive to just get started. Of course, this option is more suitable for cases where it is possible to run a "test" version of the solution. This will help you find out what prospects await you after making a decision.

Keep in mind that even employees are hired for probation to understand how they will work, and only then make a decision on admission. This is the same test case. If there is no opportunity for a test, then collect as much information as possible to make the most accurate predictions.

Set conditions

To make effective decisions, you can use the trick - put certain conditions(preferably unfavorable) under which specific actions will be performed.

When making a decision, you can fall into the trap of overconfidence, believing that everything will be fine. But when faced with problems, you can no longer take a step back, being strongly attached to your decision.

The conditions we are talking about will make it possible to avoid this. This means that you must set several variables under which your decision can be reversed. For example, you decide to invest in investment project, but at the same time they made a promise to themselves that if in a year the investments do not start to make a profit, you will exit the project - this is your condition.

This method helps to avoid difficult situations, allows you to see hidden risks and prepare for them, indicate ways of retreat and look at things more realistically. In addition, you will be less attached to your decision and get rid of excessive arrogance.

Accept criticism

Sometimes it helps to make the right decision to accept criticism from the outside. But it is important to understand what you need to be able to do, because it is not always constructive, especially when it is a projection of the fears and expectations of other people onto its object. In criticism, the psychological background is very important.

But still, the criticizing person should be perceived as a collaborator who helps you get rid of self-confidence and points to weak sides the decision you make. Criticism helps to look at the situation from a different angle and include this view in your point of view in order to get a more objective picture of what is happening.

Do none of the above

No matter how strange it may sound, there are situations when you can not follow any of the above tips. They help make decisions when options are driven by advantages and disadvantages. But there may not be any shortcomings, right.

If you understand that there is nothing to lose by choosing one of the options, put everything said above aside, make a decision and just watch what happens. One simple rule applies here: if the choice is worthless, you don’t need to think long - just act.

As you can see, learning to make the right decisions is not as difficult as it might seem. Naturally, there are very few people given advice to master this skill to the fullest, but for this our training “Decision Making” was created, which will also talk about other equally important things.

Decision Lessons

Our course includes five lessons that examine the individual components of the decision-making process. It has both a theoretical and practical focus, so the information you learn will be useful to anyone.

We advise you to go through the lessons in the presented sequence, but at the same time we recommend referring to auxiliary materials: we will give links to some of them, and you will have to look for some on your own (including books, the list of which is presented below).

Consistent passage of the lessons will allow you to better understand the features of making everyday and managerial decisions and assimilate the information in the best way, while being able to immediately apply new knowledge in practice. But let's clarify a little what kind of knowledge it will be.

As you yourself understand, decision-making is closely intertwined with human psychology. This topic is also very important for a more accurate assimilation of the specifics of this issue. One of the most popular and relevant research in this area today is the research of the Israeli-American psychologist Daniel Kahneman, who was awarded, among other things, the Nobel Prize for "the use of psychological methods in economics especially in the study of judgment formation and decision-making under conditions of uncertainty.”

In the fifth and final lesson of the training, we will talk about the psychological features of decision-making from the position of Kahneman and his colleague Amos Tversky. In particular, we will talk about two systems of thinking (fast and slow thinking), the prerequisites for the emergence of Kahneman's theory and the conclusions that he made thanks to his numerous experiments.

How to take classes

Training "Decision Making" aims to introduce you to the theoretical and practical foundations of decision making. Therefore, your task will be to approach the study of theory as carefully as possible and project knowledge onto the plane as quickly as possible. practical application.

1-2 days is enough to study each lesson, after which you can spend 1-2 days working in real conditions and studying auxiliary materials. Actually, practice should be present in your life all the time, because it will depend on it how quickly you master a new skill, and what results you can achieve.

Decision Making Books

Books we have selected for you additional materials, are not just bestsellers that have earned popularity with readers around the world. In fact, this is a real storehouse of useful information about everything related to decision-making, both in everyday life and in professional and business life. The authors of these books are successful people who managed to reach the limits personal growth and productivity. Take advantage of the experience of these specialists, and serious results will not be long in coming.

Decision Making Books:

• "What will you choose?" Tal Ben Shahar
• "Why? Guidance for Finding Causes and Making Decisions. Samantha Kleinberg
• "Problem solving using the methods of special services." Morgan Jones
• "Jedi Techniques. How to raise your monkey, empty the inbox and conserve thought fuel. Maxim Dorofeev
• ". How to make the right decisions without doubt and stress. Guy Claxton
• Why are we wrong. Thinking traps in action. Joseph Hallinan
• “Microsolutions. A proven path to achieving big goals. Caroline Arnold
• "Territory of delusions. What mistakes do smart people make? Rolf Dobelli
• “Comprehension. The power of humanitarian thinking in the era of algorithms. Christian Madsbjerg
• “All the right decisions. A Guide to Creating Breakthrough Strategies. Konstantinos Markides

And to conclude this introduction, we want to give you some food for thought. We offer you a small selection of quotes from famous people about the importance of decision-making skills. Let them once again point out to you why you need to be able to do this, and what significance all this has in the life of each of us.

Celebrity Quotes About Decision Making

“Before you think about solving future problems, learn to cope with today's problems. least time and with more efficient»

“We need to discuss often, decide once”

“With an open discussion, not only errors, but the most absurdities are easily eliminated”

“The weak hesitate before making a decision; strong - after "

“There are no problems, there are only unpleasant solutions”

"Every complex problem has a simple, easy to understand wrong solution"

"Recognizing a problem is half the battle in solving it"

“He who wants to succeed must ask the right preliminary questions”

“All problems have a technical solution, it’s just that the biggest problem is choosing the right solution and abandoning those that entail other problems”

“Greatness is not in going to extremes, but in touching two extremes at the same time and filling the gap between them”

Topic: "Management decision-making in the organization."

INTRODUCTION…………………………………………………………………...…..2

1. The main stages of preparation of management decisions……………………5

2. Decision-making process………………………………………………………6

2.1. The principle of the goal ..................................................................................................... 8

2.2. The principle of legal security of a management decision…………..10

2.3. The principle of control optimization………………………………………..11

2.4. The principle of delegation of authority……………………………………..16

3. Methods of making management decisions………………………………..19

3.1. Creative methods………………………………………………………….21

3.1.1. Systematic-logical methods………………………………………...23

3.1.2. Intuitive and creative methods…………………………………………27

3.2. Methods for evaluating and selecting alternatives……………………………………….35

3.2.1. Scoring methods………………………………………………….35

3.2.2. ABC analysis……………………………………………………………….38

3.2.3. Portfolio analysis……………………………………………………..41

3.2.4. "Decision tree"………………………………………………………...43

4. Making decisions in difficult situations and the difficulties of its implementation.

4.1. Problems of Unique Choice……………………………………………....46

5.Practical part.………………………………………………………………..49

CONCLUSION………………………………………………………………...50

BIBLIOGRAPHY…………………………………………………….51

Introduction

The creation of a large number of enterprises of various forms of ownership during the formation of a market economy in our country led to the fact that managers had to learn to manage on their own, and not at the behest "from above". One of the elements of independent management of the enterprise's activities is making managerial decisions.

Management Decision Making Process relevant due to the fact that the scale, number of elements and relationships of sub-systems in organizational systems are expanding more and more. The complication of connections between the elements of the system causes uncertainty in the knowledge of the real structure of the system, which may be due to the so-called human factor, intentional or special distortion of information, etc.

Sometimes the definition of a management decision is limited only by the choice of a possible course of action. Such an approach impoverishes the content of this category of management theory and does not correspond to its essence.

Management decisions can be made applicable to any area of ​​the organization: personnel management, financial management, production process management, including marketing service management.

The relevance of the work is explained by the fact that the existence of any organization is impossible without the constant daily adoption and implementation of certain decisions at various levels of management. At the same time, managerial decisions are aimed at achieving the most optimal result of the activity of the organizational and production system.

What is a decision? Let's try to give first the most general characteristics. Usually, in the course of any activity, situations arise when a person or a group of people is faced with the need to choose one of several possible options for action. The result of this choice will be the decision. Thus, a decision is a choice of an alternative. Each of us daily has to choose something dozens of times on our own experience, developing abilities and acquiring decision-making skills. There are many examples: the choice of clothes from the existing wardrobe, the choice of dishes from the proposed menu.

Any act of an individual or action of a collective is preceded by a decision. Decisions are a universal form of behavior of both an individual and social groups. This universality is explained by the conscious and purposeful nature of human activity. However, despite the universality of decisions, their adoption in the process organization management significantly different from decisions made in private life.

There are many different unique choice problems. First of all, we single out the problems in which, in principle, one can find rational, understandable to other people, a statement of the reasons that led to the choice of one of the alternatives (note that many human, "everyday" problems of choice do not fall under this definition). The most characteristic problems of rational choice are the problems that arise before people working in different administrative services - in the management of organizations and a set of organizations. Any employee of the administrative apparatus must be rational, if only in order to be able to explain to others the logical grounds for his choice.

Problems of choosing a rational management decision in unique situations, characteristic of administrative activities (the choice of an investment plan, the choice of research and development projects, the choice of a production plan for products, the choice of a long-term plan for the development of an enterprise, etc.) have always been of interest to many specialists and researchers. The list of such problems is quite extensive, but they all have the following common features:

Uniqueness, uniqueness of the situation of choice;

Difficult to assess the nature of the alternatives under consideration;

Insufficient certainty of the consequences of decisions made;

The presence of a set of heterogeneous factors that should be taken into account;

The presence of a person or group of persons responsible for making decisions.

Problems of rational choice in unique situations have always existed, but for a number of reasons, their importance has increased significantly in recent decades. First of all, the dynamism of the environment has sharply increased and the period of time when the decisions made earlier remain correct has decreased. Secondly, the development of science and technology has led to the emergence of a large number of alternative choices. Thirdly, the complexity of each of the options for making decisions has increased. Fourth, the interdependence of different decisions and their consequences has increased. As a result of all this, the difficulties of rationally solving the problems of unique choice have increased dramatically. These problems have become much more complex, and people, leaders of organizations, meet them more and more often. In the future, we can expect an even greater variety of difficult and responsible problems of unique choice.

How are such problems usually solved? We know from history that experienced managers are distinguished by the ability to make the best use of your experience and intuition . In situations of making unique decisions, there is always a lack of information, which can only be covered by believing in one of the possible hypotheses. Experienced managers usually use all helpful tips, but they act in their own way, on the basis of their own model of the development of future events, their assessment of certain personalities. The problems of making unique decisions have always required creativity, insight, in other words, rational choice in unique situations is inherently a special art.

The purpose of the course work is the study of the functional organization of the process of making managerial decisions, as well as the consideration of the order and methods of decision-making.

1. The main stages of preparation of managerial decisions.

Management decision - this is a creative act of the subject of management, aimed at eliminating the problems that have arisen in the subject of management. Development and decision-making is a creative process in the activities of leaders. It usually includes a number of stages:

development and goal setting;

study of the problem;

selection and justification of efficiency criteria and possible consequences of the decisions made;

consideration of options for solutions;

selection and final formulation of the decision;

decision-making;

bringing decisions to the executors;

Control over the implementation of decisions.

Under management decision understand the choice of alternative; action to resolve a problem. Ultimately, the management decision is presented as the result of management activities. In a broader sense, a managerial decision is considered as the main type of managerial work, a set of interrelated, purposeful and logically consistent managerial actions that ensure the implementation of managerial tasks.

Solutions can be classified in many ways. However, the determining factor is the conditions under which the decision is made.

Decisions are usually made in an environment of certainty and risk (uncertainty). Under certainty, the manager is relatively certain of the outcome of each of the alternatives. In an environment of risk (uncertainty), the maximum that a manager can do is to determine the probability of success for each alternative.

There are other criteria for classifying management decisions:

Classification of management decisions. Tab. one.

Classification criteria	Types of management decisions
by the duration of the consequences of the decision	long term, medium term, short term
by frequency of adoption	one-time (random), recurring
by breadth of coverage	general (for all employees), highly specialized
according to the form of preparation	individual, group, collective
by complexity	simple, complex
according to the rigidity of the regulation	contour, structured, algorithmic

2. Decision making process.

The decision-making process is complex and multilateral. It includes a number of stages and operations. Questions about how many and what stages the decision-making process should go through, what is the specific content of each of them, are controversial and are solved differently by different leaders. It depends on the qualifications of the manager, the situation, the style of leadership and the culture of the organization. It is important that each manager understands the strengths and limitations of each approach and decision-making procedure and is able to choose the best option for the situation and own management style.

The classical approach to making a managerial decision is to follow a certain procedure and perform mandatory actions (Fig. 1).

Decision making process

Formulation of the problem

Identification of limitations in the definition of alternatives

Decision-making

Solution Implementation

Formulation of the problem

Rice. 1. The constituent elements of the process of making managerial decisions.

The main tasks of management science are the study and practical application of the principles of development of the entire set of managerial relations and various forms their manifestations in setting goals, developing plans, creating economic and organizational conditions for the effective operation of labor collectives. The study and mastery of these regularities are a necessary condition for improving the management of public and private production, improving the economic infrastructure and raising the national economy of the country.

The team is a particularly complex object of management., i.e. a group of people united on the basis of common tasks, joint actions, constant contacts. The intellectual, cultural and moral potential of the members of the team is so different that it is difficult to predict the reaction of each individual to the control action. How to maintain friendly, cordial relations in the family, how to establish and maintain mutual understanding with your colleague, how to influence the team in order to achieve the fulfillment of tasks without conflicts and stress? The principles of management as the foundation of the most complex of the arts - the arts of management do not claim to be a panacea for all occasions, but in all cases they will not leave a person without reasonable, well-thought-out recommendations by professional experts.

Solution is the choice of an alternative. The ability to make managerial decisions develops with experience. We make everyday decisions without systematic deliberation. We think over long-term decisions in life. In management, decision making is a systematic process. The reasons for this are the responsibility for making decisions, the consequences for the entire company.

Programmed organizational decision is the result of implementing a sequence of steps and actions. Unprogrammed decisions arise when it is impossible to pre-compose a sequence of necessary steps. For example, how to improve product quality, sales volume.

Compromises. Almost all management decisions have negative consequences. Should be considered possible consequences to all parts of the organization as a system ( systems approach). The leader must understand that unmade decisions, "vane" tactics have an even worse result than making a bad decision.

Decision-making approaches:

• difficult to make good decisions;
• the decision maker is guided, among other things, by feelings, sometimes there is no logic in decisions.

There are three main types of management decisions made:

• intuitive decisions are based on the feeling that the choice was made correctly. According to many successful leaders, many decisions (up to 80%) are made on the basis of intuition;
• Judgment-based management decisions are choices based on knowledge and experience gained in the past. Advantages: fast and cheap adoption. But the fear of new areas of activity can hold back the development of the company;
• rational decisions are justified through an objective analytical process, without relying on past experience.

Stages of a rational management decision

• Problem diagnosis. A problem is not only an unresolved issue, but also an opportunity. The information should be relevant – pertinent, pertinent.
• Formulation of restrictions and criteria for making managerial decisions. Constraints - the availability of resources from the manager and the organization so that decisions are realistic. The manager must have the authority to make this decision. Criteria are the standards by which alternative choices are to be judged. Criteria can be quantitative and qualitative. An example is the choice (purchase) of a car.
• Definition of alternatives. Consider the time and cost of the selection process.
• Evaluation of alternatives. The weighted average method is the cost (profit) of alternative projects. scoring method. Risk accounting.
• Choice of an alternative. The search for an optimal (maximizing solution) is difficult; a satisfactory solution is usually chosen.
• Implementation and Feedback. Coordination of the obtained results with the expected ones.

Factors influencing the decision-making process

• Personal assessments of the leader. Subjective opinion about priority tasks, emphasis, for example, on economic problems, and not on social ones.
• Risk and uncertainty. Factors external environment. Uncertainty Reduction Opportunities: Obtaining additional information or actions in accordance with the accumulated experience.
• Time. Success won't come right away.
• The cost of information. The costs of information should be covered by income from its use and implementation. More information is not necessarily better.
• The relationship of decisions. Systems approach.

Decision-making methods

Apply procedures such as scientific method , which consists of the following steps:

• observation - collection and analysis of information;
• formulation of a hypothesis (assumptions). BCG matrix- size of the company / profit;
• verification - confirmation of the validity of the hypothesis.

The main decision-making methods include:

• mathematical expectation (payoff matrix). The expected value of the indicator;
• decision tree;
• modeling. A model is a reduced, simplified copy of reality. The need for modeling is due to the complexity of processes, reducing the risks of implementation directly into practice, and the possibility of forecasts.

Model types:

• physical model - an enlarged, reduced display of the object under study. Enterprise management structure;
• analog model - replaces the object under study with an analog object that behaves like a real object. Graph of the dependence of unit costs on the volume of production;
• mathematical model. Symbols and designations are used to describe the properties of an object, a formula.

Methods for forecasting rational management decisions

1. Informal information. Rumors. Industrial espionage.

2. Quantitative methods:

Time series analysis. Trends.

Task: Determine the volume of purchases of hamburgers in December, if over the past 5 years, demand in December has fallen by an average of 10% compared to November, and sales of hamburgers in a restaurant have grown by an average of 20% per year over the past 5 years.

Correlation-regression analysis. Correlation coefficient.

3. Qualitative methods:

• jury opinion. "Brainstorm";
• consumer expectation model. Based on the forecast of changes in demand;
• method expert assessments. . The results of the survey of experts are returned to them for discussion 3-4 times. This is how experts agree.

Decision-making permeates all management activities, decisions are made on a wide range of management tasks. Not a single management function, regardless of which body performs it, can be implemented otherwise than through the preparation and execution of management decisions. In essence, the entire set of activities of any management employee is somehow connected with the adoption and implementation of decisions. This, first of all, determines the importance of decision-making activities and its role in management. The well-known American management specialist Herbert Simon called decision making “the essence of management activities". He further noted that any Practical activities consists of "decision" and "action". Management, therefore, can be seen as decision-making processes and as processes containing actions.

The second interpretation involves decision-making only in the context of the performance of individual management functions (planning, organization, motivation and control). It is from these positions that the management decision is considered in this manual.

The foregoing does not mean that financial, economic, production and other factors are not taken into account when making managerial decisions. The special importance of the decision-making function for human activity and its special role in the management process determine the need to consider all aspects of this function. At scientific approach to the decision-making function, all of the above aspects should be considered as a whole. A complex approach ensures the completeness of the study of this function and contributes to a deeper understanding of the patterns of the decision-making process. An integrated approach, which involves taking into account economic, financial, legal, production and other factors, is implemented when analyzing a problem situation, setting goals, defining criteria, choosing solutions, performing other operations when making managerial decisions, which will be discussed in subsequent chapters of the book.

A characteristic feature of the management of any objects is the achievement of certain goals. This common feature can be used as the basis for defining the management process. The control process is called targeted impact the subject of management to the object of management in order to implement management functions.

The management process consists of a sequence of types of management activities that are cyclically repeated in time, which are called management functions. The allocation of functions in the control process can be performed with varying degrees of detail. Planning, organization, motivation and control are usually considered as the most common aggregated management functions.

Planning includes preplanning analysis and development of plans of different duration and focus. output ( end result) planning is an approved plan of one or another duration and content.

The organization involves the adaptation of an existing org. management structures for new goals and objectives formulated in the plan, rationalization of the distribution of tasks, responsibilities and rights, solution personnel issues, tracking the progress of the plan and taking appropriate action organizational plan in case of deviation from it, that is, organizational support for the implementation of the plan.

Motivation is aimed at stimulating effective work, both managers and employees of the organization. The whole arsenal is used here modern methods: economic, socio-psychological, factors corporate culture. Thus, motivational support for the fulfillment of planned targets is provided. Essentially, the functions of organization and motivation are the functions of ensuring the implementation of the adopted plan.

Sometimes, between the functions of organization and control, the functions of coordination and regulation are placed, which ensure the functioning of managed processes within the parameters specified by the plan. They are aimed at providing constant operational guidance to subordinates. The implementation of these functions ensures the rhythmic work of the organization, fast stitching bottlenecks, operational redistribution of resources, prevention of possible deviations, establishment of normal business relations with higher organizations and subcontractors. These functions are based on information about the activity of the control object coming through feedback channels.

These functions can be considered separately, or their component subfunctions can be divided into planning, organization, motivation and control functions. So, if during the implementation of the plan deviations were identified, then measures to eliminate them are implemented when performing the above functions, up to changing the planned targets.

The final control, in its analytical component, is aimed at assessing the level of implementation of planned targets. Control data, along with information about the state of the external environment, are necessary for developing a plan for the next planning period. Thus, the control function concludes this control cycle and at the same time provides information to start the next control cycle. From these positions, the boundary between the functions of control and planning in the management cycle is rather conditional, it all depends on the choice of the starting point of the planning cycle.

Project managers must manage the project team and coordinate decision making. Some decisions are easy to make, such as what information an instruction manual should contain. Others are difficult, as, for example, to decide to suspend work that does not give the desired result. Often project team faces previously unknown problems requiring creative solutions. Project managers must manage decision making by bringing together the right specialists to make the right decision in right time. However, not all decisions must be made by the team. Some decisions can and should be made unilaterally. Project managers must regulate the decision-making process in such a way that the necessary decisions are made in a timely manner.

CASE STUDY ===================.

Management of non-priority projects.

All this time we have been talking about creating teams that will develop important projects that require the attention and full dedication of all participants. And what about the depot with projects that are not priority for team members? These may be preliminary study groups of specialists, in which people are usually reluctant to work. Or a job that doesn't inspire enthusiasm either. Or a project on which the specialist is occupied only half of the working time, which he would prefer to devote to more important core work. Or a project where a team member constantly asks himself the question: “Why am I doing this?”.

There is no magic daddy that can turn a not-too-interested team of workers who are only partially employed in this project into a high-performing one. We have discussed this issue with many project managers. All of them are unanimous in their opinion that this is a very difficult task, which is sometimes almost impossible to solve, And yet there are some tips that can help correct a hopeless situation. Most are about building commitment to the project.

One manager spoke of the need to spend more time preparing for such a project before embarking on it. He believed that it was necessary to impose a penalty on workers if they could not bring the development of the project to the end.

Others talk about making the job as attractive as possible. Here the role of rituals comes to the fore. People feel committed to the project because they just enjoy working together. And one of the project managers admitted that the 100% attendance at the workshops was mainly due to the desire to drink coffee with the excellent donuts that were served during the meeting.

Another way is to make the meaning of the project as clear as possible to the team members. Someone increased the responsibility of specialists for the development of methods to prevent accidents by inviting victims of accidents to meetings. Someone invited a meeting of the project sponsor, which in the eyes of the team increased the value of the project for the organization.

Most project managers stress the importance of good personal relationships with team members. When such a relationship exists, people work not so much because the interest of the project is important to them, but because they do not want to let the manager down. Although not versed in matters of influence, managers spoke of the need to know all employees, encourage their work, maintain contact with them, and, if necessary, provide assistance.

And finally, all project managers said that in the case of non-priority projects, nothing can be taken for granted. They advise to remind employees that there will be a meeting, to bring additional copies of materials for those who have forgotten or did not find them. Project managers need to be in constant contact with team members and remind them of their tasks. As one of the managers aptly put it, “Sometimes you just need to keep dripping on your brain.”

Choice of approach to decision making. Vroom, Yetton, and Jago developed a framework to help managers choose the decision-making process that is most appropriate for different problem situations. We have redesigned this framework for project management so that it is useful not only for the project manager, but also for any team member who has to make decisions. The scheme is based on five alternative ways of making decisions. Note that the participation rate increases with each alternative.

A1. An employee solves a problem or makes a decision independently, using the information at his disposal.

A2. The employee receives the necessary information from other team members. He may or may not tell other workers what the problem is before getting their information. Team members provide information but do not develop or evaluate solutions.

C1. The employee shares the problem with other employees, finds out their personal opinion and listens to their personal suggestions at the individual level, not at the group level. The employee makes a decision based on a personal understanding of the information received.

C2. The employee shares a problem with the team, seeks opinions and gets advice from the team as a whole. He makes a decision based on his understanding of the information received.

G. The employee shares the problem with the team, discusses it with the group, and makes a decision based on group consensus.

In order to help the worker analyze the situation and choose the most appropriate decision-making method, Vroom and Jago used a diagram similar to that shown in Fig. 10-4. Key parameters are the quality of the decisions made, the availability and location of the necessary information, and the commitment needed to fully implement the solution. The model is not suitable for urgent issues requiring immediate attention, such as emergencies. Yet the model clearly indicates that time is of the essence, and it takes longer for a group to make a decision than individual worker. Therefore, it is recommended that a group decision be made only when the situation dictates.

To understand how the circuit works, let's apply it to a specific situation. Assume that a project manager leads a small team of 15 information systems(IS), which should develop a working model electronic system orders via web pages. The project is being developed exactly half of the

Rice. 10-4. Modified diagram of Vroom and Jago's decision-making process.

of the time allotted for it and is five days behind schedule. You are worried about the possibility of not completing the project on time. You weigh your options. One is to accept the backlog and revise the schedule accordingly. This means that the team will not receive a bonus for completing the work on time. Another option is to hire another programmer who will do the coding. Your team members are divided on the status of the project. Some are afraid that a mistake has crept into the original scheme, which led to a backlog. Others believe that mistakes are inevitable and the worst is over. Some are even willing to work weekends to get back to their original schedule.

We use the diagram in Fig. 10-4 and choose the appropriate decision-making process for this problem. The first square on the left is the QR (requirement for the quality of the solution). You need to decide whether the requirement is high or low. Having decided, we move on to the next square, or.

CR (commitment). You again need to decide how important the commitment of team members to the final decision is. After making this decision, you must make the next one, and so on. When making a decision, follow the appropriate line to the next square. In the end, accepting

Table 10-1. DECISION-MAKING ANALYSIS

Parameter Key question
	Degree of importance technical quality solutions
	Degree of importance of team commitment to decisions
	Availability of sufficient information to make a quality decision	Probably not
	How well is the problem structured?
	If this is a one-man decision, is there any certainty that the rest of the team members will agree with it?	Probably not
	Do others agree with the goals to be achieved by solving this problem?
	Do team members have enough information to make a good decision?	Probably yes

G (consensus decision making).

Project managers can use this chart to select an approach to the decision-making process for a particular problem. They can evaluate the project decision-making process Do team members choose the most appropriate approach when faced with a problem? Are we wasting precious time in meetings discussing issues that do not require general discussion? Managers can dedicate their team members to the intricacies of this scheme to develop norms and criteria for problem solving.

To make most decisions, it is not necessary to hold formal meetings of the team with a discussion of alternatives and the choice of solutions. Decisions are best made during real work based on the constant interaction of project managers and team members. Through active MBWAs, project managers consult with team members, get their opinions, determine optimal solutions, and create a sense of ownership that builds trust and commitment to solutions. And yet, as you can see from the examples, projects often face problems that require the active participation of the entire team, as well as other stakeholders. The following are recommendations for decision-making management.

Facilitate group decision making. According to Vroom and Jago, a group decision is good when it improves the quality of an important decision. Often this refers to complex problems that require the participation of specialists in a wide variety of fields. Group decision-making should also be used when strong commitment to the decision is needed and it is unlikely that the group will agree with the decision taken alone. The participation of team members is necessary to reduce resistance to the solution and to ensure its support. Group decision-making is required in case of conflicting issues that can greatly affect the execution of the project, or when the trust in the team is rather low.

Project managers play a central role in managing the group decision-making process. They must always remember that their task is not to make a decision, but to facilitate group discussion of problems so that the team reaches agreement on the best solution to the problem. Consensus in this context does not mean 100% support of the decision by all team members, but their agreement that the chosen solution is the best in a particular situation. Group decision making includes 4 main steps. Below is a description of each stage with suggestions on how to manage this process.

Identification of the problem. The project manager should not formulate the problem as a choice of options (to do one way or another). He must identify a problem for which these and possibly other alternatives are possible solutions. This will allow the group to formulate alternatives rather than choose from those offered. When identifying a problem, it is quite useful to analyze the difference between the actual state of the project at the moment and the ideal state of the project at the same moment. For example, a project might be 4 days behind schedule, or a model might weigh 2kg more than the specifications. Whether the difference is big or small, the goal is to eliminate it. The task of the group is to find one or more ways to transform the real state into the ideal one.

If the project manager sees that during the identification and discussion of problems, workers are choosing defensive tactics, it is worthwhile to postpone the decision for a while, if possible. Let the emotions subside, and team members will be able to take a fresh look at the problem.

Development of alternatives. When there is general agreement on the nature of the problem, the need to develop alternative solutions comes first. If the problem is creative, it is necessary brainstorm. The team develops a list possible solutions. This is a period of moratorium on criticism and evaluation of the proposed ideas. Team members should be encouraged to develop ideas suggested by colleagues or combine them and get a new one. The goal is to have as many options as possible, no matter how unacceptable they may seem. Some project managers prefer to hold discussions of particularly complex issues outside their main workplace: a change of scenery stimulates creativity.

Choice of solution. On the next step the merits of alternative solutions need to be assessed. It is good when there are criteria for such an assessment. In many cases, the project manager can look at the priorities of the project and ask the team to evaluate each alternative in terms of cost, time, quality of work, and narrowing the gap between reality and ideal. For example, in conditions of lack of time, a solution will be chosen that allows to solve the problem as quickly as possible.

During the discussion, it is necessary to achieve consensus in the group, which can be quite difficult. The project manager should periodically debrief, which will help the group to keep track of the progress of the discussion. Also, the project manager must defend the minority's point of view and make sure that it is heard. It is necessary to ensure that an equal exchange of views is possible, so that no one dominates the discussions. If conflicts arise, there may be useful ideas and the methods proposed in the next part of the chapter.

Project managers need to measure the degree of consensus in order to determine which items are in agreement and which are not. It cannot be considered that silence is a sign of consent; workers must confirm their consent aloud. As a result, as a result of painstaking collaboration, the team comes to a "unanimous opinion" about which solution is the best for the project.

4. Bringing the process to an end. Once a decision has been made and implemented, it is important for the team to take the time and opportunity to evaluate the effectiveness of the solution. If the decision did not lead to the expected result, you need to find out why, learn lessons and add them to the general information bank commands.