Methods of strategic analysis of the macro environment. Analysis of macro-environment factors. Theoretical foundations of the analysis of the external environment

2. Strategic analysis at the business (branch) level of the corporation

2.1 Industry strategic analysis of the external environment

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The factors of the microenvironment sometimes include not only the organization ( company ), but also consumers customers ), competitors ( competitors ) and partners ( collaborators ). According to the English names of these components, the company's microenvironment is designated as 4C.

On fig. 1.2 factors of the macroenvironment of the organization of direct influence are shown.

Rice. 1.2.

Consumers - an integral part of the business of any organization and the most important component of the organization's immediate environment. Any business exists insofar as it has consumers. The strategy of the organization should be focused on the most complete satisfaction of the needs and requirements of the consumer. Knowing the specific desires of its customers, their aspirations and hopes allows the organization to develop clear development goals and programs for their implementation.

In order to attract and retain customers in the future, it is necessary to acquaint customers with the purpose of the organization, i.e. with its strategic goals.

Of course, an organization can influence both suppliers and intermediaries by offering them its own prices, tariffs, offering discounts from prices, giving preference to some of them, etc. Suppliers - these are organizations and individuals that supply the resources necessary for the production of goods or for the provision of services. Market trends that affect suppliers can have a significant impact on an organization's implementation of a strategic plan.

Intermediaries structures that help an organization advertise, market, sell, and deliver a product to a customer are called. All of them are usually related to each other. Whatever the organization does, no matter what product or service it specializes in, the most important intermediaries are transport, financial and advertising.

Any organization faces a wide range of competitors. Market theory says that in order to succeed in business, an organization must not only meet the changing needs of customers, but also adapt to the strategies of competitors. The organization must gain a strategic advantage by instilling in the minds of competitors the priority of their products.

In addition, the organization, by its actions to better meet the needs and requirements of its customers, can influence competitors. Competitors will certainly think if this organization suddenly reduce the prices of their goods, and will take some steps. This is one of the possible forms of influence on competitors. By using the media to cover, for example, its charitable activities, an organization can form a positive public image of itself.

In addition, various contact audiences of the organization can be attributed to factors that can be influenced. Contact audience Any group that has an actual or potential interest in the organization or influences its ability to achieve its goals. The contact audience can either contribute to the organization's market service efforts or counteract the market service organization's efforts.

Any organization operates in the environment of seven types of contact audiences:

1) financial circles (banks, investment companies, brokerage organizations of the stock exchange, shareholders);
2) mass media (newspapers, magazines, radio stations and television centers);
3) contact audiences of state institutions;
4) public organizations(groups of environmentalists, representatives of national minorities, etc.);
5) local community (local population);
6) society as a whole;
7) internal contact audiences (own workers and employees, voluntary assistants, managers, members of the board of directors).

All these are examples of the possible influence of the organization on the factors of the immediate environment. In reality, there are an infinite number of them.

An increasing number of organizations have to reckon with societal rights, values and priorities, take into account and monitor laws and regulations, as well as many other factors that cannot be influenced.

It is the macro environment that determines many situations in business, its characteristic features affect the activities of all economic entities, regardless of the form of ownership and the specifics of products offered on the market.

Political and legal, economic, demographic, sociocultural, scientific, technical, natural factors have an indirect impact on the organization's activities (Fig. 1.3).

Political and legal factors - these are the political institutions in the country and their development; state of legislation regulating economic and economic activity; consequences of the influence of foreign economic policy on competition and demand for domestic market; the influence of the public on the nature of decisions taken by state bodies. There is a well-known aphorism: "You may not be involved in politics, you may not even be interested in it at all, sooner or later it will take care of you."

Rice. 1.3.

Political factors affecting business should include all legislative acts, presidential decrees, government orders regulating entrepreneurial activity, as well as similar orders of local authorities. Entrepreneurs should closely monitor the formation and development legislative framework not to make mistakes.

Economic forces is the economic situation of the country; purchasing power of citizens; dynamics and structure of consumption; financial, monetary, credit situation of the country. Strategic planners and marketers need to be aware of major income trends, as the general purchasing power of the population is determined by current income, savings and price levels.

Demographic factors is the population, its density; territorial distribution; age structure, fertility, mortality; the number of marriages and divorces; ethnic and religious structure of the population. There are many demographic indicators - all are not listed here. It is rather difficult to influence their development at the level of an individual entrepreneur, but it is necessary to track their change. After all, the market as a combination of real and potential buyers has a demographic fundamental basis. One of the leading demographic trends is the change in the age structure of the population, which is expressed in an increase in the proportion of older people and a decrease in the proportion of young people. This trend is typical for all countries of Europe, many countries of Asia and America. It is also characteristic of Russia.

Peter Drucker great importance attached to demographic factors, believing that there is nothing more stupid than ignoring demographics. The main suggestion is that the composition of the population is inherently unstable and subject to sudden, drastic changes. And this is the primary external factor that is analyzed and considered by those who make the decision, whether they are businessmen or politicians.

Sociocultural factors - this is the level of cultural development, forms of cultures, features of cultural and moral values of consumer groups, the degree of exposure of public consciousness to the influence of external factors. The cultural environment includes institutions that influence the core values, preferences, and behavioral norms of a society.

Scientific and technical factors - these are the pace and scale of scientific, technical and technological changes, the intensity of innovations, the innovative potential of the organization and its main competitors, the requirements for the safety of innovations, the amount of R&D costs, and the qualifications of personnel.

natural factors - natural resources of the country (region), prospects for their use, the degree of provision of national production with the main types of raw materials and fuel, the influence of state bodies on the intensity of resource consumption, the level of environmental pollution in general and in individual regions.

An organization needs to study the factors of the macro environment, predict their dynamics for a strategic perspective, and adjust its internal factors to this dynamic. At the same time, the organization may not have a direct impact on the factors of the macroenvironment, except for adaptation to the forms of their manifestation. For example, an organization can create demand in the market, manage demand, create new needs, which is a direct impact on such a factor. external environment like consumers.

Strategic management should ensure that the organization interacts with the marketing environment in such a way that would allow the organization to maintain the potential at the level necessary to achieve its goals, and would enable it to survive in the long term.

The definition of the vision, mission and goals of the organization, considered as one of the processes of strategic management, consists of three stages, each of which requires a lot of and extremely responsible work.

The first step is to create vision of the organization - an ideal picture of the future of the organization, rather than the goal itself, but a look at "what the organization is going to do in the future and what it wants to achieve." Strategic vision - a perspective look at the direction of the organization's development, the basic concept of what the organization is trying to do, what it is striving for. A strategic vision is necessary for the management of the organization to remove all doubts about the long-term prospects for the development of the organization. Well founded strategic vision required condition providing strategic leadership. It is impossible to develop a successful organization development strategy without defining the concept of your business.

The second stage is the formation mission of the organization, which in a concentrated form expresses the meaning of the existence of the organization, its purpose. The purpose (mission) of the organization is the answer to the question: "What is our activity, and what will we do?", which is offered to the company's clients. The formulation of the mission emphasizes the main content and directions of the organization. The mission gives the organization originality, fills the work of people with a special meaning.

The next step is to define long-term tactical goals. Long-term goals are results to be achieved either within the next three to five years, or continuously achieved year after year.

And this part of strategic management ends with the establishment short term operational goals. Short-term goals are the immediate goals of the organization. They are aimed at improving the performance of the organization and reflect how quickly management is trying to achieve long-term goals. The formation of the mission and the establishment of the organization's goals lead to the fact that it becomes clear why the organization functions and what it strives for.

Once the vision, mission and goals are defined, the next step is analysis And choice of strategy. At this stage, a decision is made about how, by what means, the organization will achieve its goals. The strategy development process is rightfully considered the heart of strategic management. Defining a strategy is not about drawing up a plan of action. Defining a strategy is deciding what to do with a particular business or product, how and in what direction to develop an organization, what place to occupy in the market, etc.

I. Ansoff, considering the distinctive features of the strategy, he gives the following definition of the strategy and its landmark (vision): the landmark is the goal that the organization seeks to achieve, and the strategy is a means to achieve the goal.

Strategy - the process of establishing a connection between an organization and its environment, consisting in the implementation of selected goals and in attempts to achieve the desired state of relations with the environment through the allocation of resources, allowing the organization and its units to operate effectively and efficiently.

The strategy can be seen as the main link between what the organization wants to achieve - its goals, and the course of action chosen to achieve these goals. The strategy should become a "thread of time", linking the past and the future, and at the same time marking the path to development. Strategy is a manager's tool for achieving strategic goals.

The definition of strategy fundamentally depends on the specific situation in which the organization finds itself. However, there are certain general approaches to the formulation of the strategy and some of the frameworks within which the strategies fit.

When choosing an organization's strategy, management is faced with three main questions related to the organization's position in the market: what business to stop, what business to continue, what business to move into? This means that the strategy focuses on what the organization does and does not do, what is more important and what is less important in the current activities of the organization.

One of the leading theorists and experts in the field of strategic management, M. Porter, believes that there are three main areas for developing a strategy for the organization's behavior in the market.

The first area is related to leadership in cost minimization production. This type of strategy is related to the fact that the organization achieves the lowest costs of production and sale of its products. As a result, it can win a larger market share due to lower prices for similar products. This basic strategy relies on performance and is usually tied to existing experience. It involves careful control of fixed costs. Investments in production are aimed at the implementation of experience, a thorough study of the design of new products. Marketing does not play a big role and is aimed at lowering sales and advertising costs. The focus of the entire strategy is low costs compared to competitors. Cost-saving leadership provides strong protection, as the effect of competition is experienced by the least efficient organizations.

The second area of strategy development relates to specialization in product manufacturing. An organization can achieve leadership in the production of its products only by carrying out highly specialized production and marketing. This leads to the fact that buyers choose this brand even at a fairly high price. Organizations pursuing this type of strategy must have high R&D capacity, high quality designers, an excellent product quality assurance system, and a strong marketing system.

The goal of this strategy is to better meet the needs of the selected target market segment than competitors. Such a strategy can be based on both differentiation and cost leadership, or both, but only within the target market segment.

The third area of strategy definition relates to fixing a certain market segment and concentration of the organization's efforts in this market segment. In this case, the organization does not seek to work on the entire market, but works on its well-defined segment, clarifying in detail the needs of the market for products of a certain type. In this case, the organization may seek to reduce costs, or pursue a policy of specialization in the production of the product. It is also possible to combine these two approaches. However, in order to carry out a strategy of the third type, an organization must necessarily build its activities primarily on an analysis of the needs of customers in a certain market segment, i.e. in its intentions, it must proceed not from the needs of the market in general, but from the needs of well-defined or further specific customers.

The purpose of such a strategy is to give the product distinctive features that are important to the buyer and distinguish the product from competitors' offers. The organization seeks to create a situation of monopolistic competition in which, due to its distinctive features, it has significant market power.

The peculiarity of the process of implementing the strategy is that it is not a process of its implementation, but only creates the basis for implementing the strategy and achieving the company's goals. The main task of the strategy execution phase is to create the necessary prerequisites for the successful implementation of the strategy. Thus, the implementation of the strategy is the implementation of strategic changes in the organization, transferring it to a state in which the organization will be ready to implement the strategy.

There are six tasks for implementing the strategy:

1) creation of a workable organizational structure;
2) the direction of a sufficient amount of resources in strategically important areas and business units;
3) development and implementation of measures to support the strategy;
4) creation of internal support systems that contribute to the improvement of work;
5) implementation of the personnel motivation policy;
6) development of a reward system.

The end result of the functioning of the organization largely depends on the effective implementation of its strategy.

The implementation of the organization's strategy is carried out within the existing organizational structure. The leader of the organization should understand how the existing structure can help or hinder the successful implementation of the strategy. The number of levels of management in an organization or the slow change of these levels in accordance with new conditions can make it difficult to successfully implement the strategy.

Therefore, in some cases, the formal organizational structure is subject to change.

In addition, it is necessary to clearly define which levels of management and who exactly in the organization will be responsible for the implementation of various tasks. Radical strategic changes and reorientation of the enterprise, as a rule, are carried out CEO, while ordinary strategic change can be carried out by middle management.

For the successful implementation of the strategy, the level of informal relations in the organization is of great importance, i.e. level organizational culture. For example, if regional managers know each other well and consult on implementation issues, such informal relationships will help to quickly achieve strategic goals.

There are several types of approach to the implementation of the strategy: team approach, coordination approach, cultural approach, cross approach.

As part of team approach the manager concentrates his efforts on the formulation of strategy, applying strict logic and analysis. A leader or top manager can either develop a strategy on their own or lead a group of strategists who are tasked with determining the best course of action for the respective organization. After the best strategy is chosen, subordinates receive information about it and an order to ensure the implementation of the strategy by order. In this case, the manager does not play an active role in the implementation of the strategy. However, to ensure the successful implementation and use of this approach, three conditions must be met:

1) it is necessary to have accurate and timely information about the marketing environment of the organization;
2) the marketing environment of the enterprise must be sufficiently stable;
3) the leader or manager who formulates the strategy must be free from subjective preferences and political influences, otherwise it will affect the content of the strategy.

At coordinating approach to strategy implementation The top manager gathers a group of managers to brainstorm to formulate and implement the strategy. In this case, the executive manager plays the role of facilitator, who uses his understanding of the dynamics of the group to ensure that only sound ideas are discussed and analyzed.

cultural approach occurs through the inclusion in the work of the lower levels of the organization. In this approach, the manager leads the organization, acquainting its members with his perception of the main task, and allows the staff to independently choose the course of action that could correspond to this task. After formulating the strategy, the leader begins to play the role of a coach, outlining general directions, but at the same time encouraging individual decisions on operational issues of implementing the strategy.

Leader choosing cross approach to the implementation of the strategy, is simultaneously involved in the formulation and implementation of the strategy. However, the manager himself does not solve these problems, but directs his subordinates to independently formulate, justify and implement the strategy.

Professor at Harvard Business School Thomas Bonoma believes that in order to successfully implement a strategy, a manager needs to master four main types of execution skills.

Interaction skills or interactive skills are expressed in the manager's ability to manage his own behavior and the behavior of others in order to achieve the goal. Depending on the level of strategic change required to implement the strategy, managers need to influence others both within their organization and outside of it. T. Bonoma argues that someone who has the ability to feel how others feel and has good bargaining skills is the best implementer.

Distribution skills reflect the manager's ability to effectively plan events, time, budget Money and other resources. Capable managers avoid investing excessive resources in well-tested programs and know that risky programs often require large investments.

Tracking Skills consist in the effective use of information by the manager to correct any situations and problems that arise during the implementation process. Good implementers create effective system feedback to analyze the process of implementing the strategy and emerging problems.

Organization skills are related to the manager's ability to create a new informal organization or network for each problem that arises.

Good implementers know all the people in the organization (and outside it) who, by reason of mutual disposition, sympathy, or some other affection, can help to the best of their ability. In other words, good implementers are able to use the informal organization of the team to ensure the effective completion of the task.

Thus, the implementation of a strategy often requires managers who have the specific skills needed to overcome obstacles and achieve their goals. Throughout the implementation process, managers must continually assess how well the strategy is being implemented.

In addition, at the stage of evaluating the results of the implementation of the strategy, the manager should already clearly understand the level of strategic change that needs to be achieved.

Evaluation and control of the implementation of the strategy are the logically final process carried out in strategic management. This process provides a stable feedback between the progress of the process of achieving goals and the actual goals facing the organization.

The assessment of the chosen strategy consists in the analysis of the correctness of the choice of the main factors that determine the possibility of implementing the strategy. The main criterion for evaluating the chosen strategy is the answer to the question: will it lead to the company achieving its goals? If the strategy meets the goals of the organization, its further evaluation is carried out in the following areas:

compliance of the chosen strategy with the state and requirements of the environment. It is checked to what extent the strategy is linked to the requirements of the main subjects of the environment, to what extent the factors of market dynamics and the dynamics of the development of the product life cycle are taken into account, whether the implementation of the strategy will lead to the emergence of new competitive advantages, etc.;
compliance of the chosen strategy with the potential and capabilities of the organization. In this case, it is assessed to what extent the chosen strategy is linked to other strategies, whether the strategy corresponds to the capabilities of the staff, whether the existing structure allows the strategy to be successfully implemented, whether the strategy implementation program has been verified in time, etc.;
the acceptability of the risk embodied in the strategy. Risk justification is assessed in three areas: are the prerequisites underlying the choice of strategy realistic; what negative consequences for the organization can lead to the failure of the strategy; justifies the possible positive result the risk of loss from failure to implement the strategy.

Monitoring the implementation of the strategy is the final stage of the strategic management process.

Strategic control - this is a special kind of organizational control, which consists in monitoring the process of strategic management and evaluating it to ensure proper functioning. Strategic control is designed to enable the management of the organization to solve the problems of the organization by observing the process of strategic management, as well as to determine the correctness of the course of the strategic management process, and evaluate its effectiveness. In fact, strategic control is carried out to implement all the plans outlined by strategic management.

Strategy implementation control - this is a kind of feedback mechanism that allows you to make the necessary adjustments at each stage of strategic management.

Strategic control is aimed at finding out to what extent the implementation of the strategy leads to the achievement of the organization's goals. This fundamentally distinguishes strategic control from managerial or operational control, since it is not interested in the correct implementation of the strategy or the correct execution of individual works, functions and operations. Strategic control is focused on finding out whether it is possible to implement the adopted strategy in the future, and whether its implementation will lead to the achievement of the set goals.

Special methods and techniques of strategic analysis will help managers evaluate and rank various types of business, focus on decisive problems and directions and ultimately ensure the sustainable development of the enterprise in the long term.

Students, graduate students, young scientists who use the knowledge base in their studies and work will be very grateful to you.

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Introduction

The construction corporation specializes in residential construction and includes five businesses (branches) operating independently in various regional markets. Corporate governance structure - divisional. Model of formation of strategies in a corporation - traditional multi-level (corporate level, business level, functional and operational).

Currently, the actual problem of any organization is the development of a development strategy, since it is the developed strategy that allows the company to survive in the competition in the long term.

The strategy is understood as a general program of actions that identifies the priorities of problems and resources to achieve the main goal.

There is no single strategy for all companies, since each company is unique in its own way. The process of developing a strategy depends on the position of the company in the market, the dynamics of its development, its potential, the behavior of competitors, the characteristics of the goods produced, the state of the economy. The strategy breaks down into many competitive actions and business approaches on which the successful management of the firm depends. In a general sense, the strategic management plan of the company is aimed at strengthening its position, satisfying customers and achieving its goals. Managers develop strategies to determine in which direction the firm will develop, and make informed decisions when choosing a course of action. The choice of a specific strategy by managers means that out of all the possible development paths and modes of action that open up to the company, one direction has been decided in which it will develop.

In this course project, only corporate strategies and business strategies are considered. Strategy development begins with an analysis of the state of the external and internal environment, carried out in each of the departments. The results and annual reports are sent to the corporate headquarters, where, after studying all the information, a corporate strategy is developed and adopted. It includes the general strategic line of the corporation, strategic decisions regarding each existing and newly created business unit (branches), decisions on the redistribution of investment resources between departments.

As part of the strategic corporate plan, the management of the department forms a business strategy that is aimed at achieving a certain competitive position in the market. The business strategy includes a product-market strategy, a competitive strategy, an integration / disintegration strategy, and other areas.

The purpose of this course project is to consolidate theoretical material and acquire skills in developing an organization's development strategy.

The aim of this course project is:

Study of existing methods of strategic analysis and choice;

Understanding the process of strategic management, its components in interconnection;

The study of the typology of strategies, the practice of their application.

In addition, this project includes the development of a strategy for a specific resource of the organization - personnel. Since the personnel is the main resource of the company, which determines, first of all, the success of the entire organization. This strategy should be inextricably linked with the strategy of the organization, its goals and objectives.

The survival of organizations, let alone their prosperity, depends primarily on whether they have their own strategy, and also on whether they can consistently put this strategy into practice through specific activities.

1. Strategic analysis of the external macro environment (SLEPT-analysis)

Analysis of the external environment is a necessary process by which, when developing a strategic plan, external factors can be controlled in order to determine the possibility of growth of the company or the threat to it.

Analysis of the macro environment includes:

1) identification of social, economic, legal, political and technological factors that characterize it;

2) assessment of the state of each factor;

3) determination of trends of change (for factors that strongly affect the activities of the organization, a detailed analysis and forecasting is advisable);

4) assessment of the nature of the impact on the organization.

The population of Russia in January-August 2003 decreased by 555.8 thousand people, or 0.4%, and amounted to 144.4 million people by September 1. The reduction in numbers is due to the natural attrition of Russians.

In Russia, the birth rate has dropped significantly. In January-October 2003, the number of births was 1251.5 thousand people, and the number of deaths was 1976.8 thousand people. In the same period of 2002, 1175 thousand people were born, 1936.4 thousand people died. In comparison with 2002, in Russia in 2003 both the birth rate and the death rate increased. At the same time, the birth rate grew at a higher rate (7.1% growth against 1.9%).

The economically active population of Russia by the end of November 2003 amounted to 71.4 million people, or about 50% of the total population of the country. 65.2 million people, or 91.4% of the economically active population, were employed in the economy and 6.2 million people (8.6%) were unemployed.

In Novosibirsk, the number of officially registered unemployed by the end of 2003 amounted to 7,140 people. The level of registered unemployment was 0.85% of the working-age population of working age.

In the third quarter of 2003, 21.9% of Russians, or 31.2 million people, had incomes below the subsistence level, while in the second quarter - 23.3% (33.2 million), and in the first quarter - 26.1 % (37.2 million).

The subsistence level of the population of Russia in the third quarter of 2003 amounted to 2121 rubles. per person per month (in the second quarter - 2137 rubles), including for the able-bodied population - 2318 rubles, for pensioners - 1612 rubles, for children - 2089 rubles.

The real disposable money income of the Russian population in 2003 increased by 14.5% compared to 2002. The average monthly nominal salary in 2003 was 5,512 rubles.

A survey of the population showed that every sixth considers himself absolutely poor. According to sociologists, every third Russian (36%) classified himself as relatively poor. 33% of people considered themselves to be of average income. Every eighth Russian (12%) can be considered relatively rich. And, finally, 1% were relatively rich people who can afford to buy quite expensive things - an apartment, a summer house, and more.

The adoption of the Land Code as a whole does not play a big role in relation to urban housing construction. Cancellation of real estate licenses has two different aspects. On the one hand, the cancellation of the license will cause an increase in real estate firms, which will lead to fierce competition in this business area, as well as to a decrease in real estate margins and, as a result, to some reduction in prices for construction products, which stimulates demand for it. On the other hand, the abundance of real estate companies can lead to distrust of the population in such a way of buying real estate, as a result, if a company sells its properties through such agencies, there is a decrease in demand, if not, then it incurs additional sales costs.

GDP and volumes industrial production over the past four years, labor productivity - by more than 30%, investment in fixed assets - by 45%. In terms of economic development rates, Russia is 2.3 times ahead of the group of developed countries of the world, and in terms of investment growth rates - 6 times.

In 2003, inflation did not exceed 12%, and in the coming period it will not exceed 10%. There has been an increase in the savings of the population, primarily in rubles, which indicates the restoration of confidence in the national currency. Inflation in Russia in January 2004 was 1.8% compared to 2.4% in January 2003, and inflation in February 2003 was at 1.6%.

The Ministry of Finance submitted for approval to the Government of the Russian Federation a new chapter of the Tax Code on the tax on property of citizens. Under the bill, the maximum tax rate will be reduced from 2% to 0.1%, but the amount of payment will be calculated from market value apartments.

In 2003, the budget was executed with a surplus equal to 1.5% of GDP. For the period from December 19 to December 26, 2003, Russia's gold and foreign exchange reserves increased by $3.3 billion, and in percentage terms by 4.4% - from $74.5 billion to $77.8 billion.

Mortgage lending is a new trend in Russia. The Law “On Construction Savings Banks” was put into effect, which regulates and regulates the process of preliminary accumulation of funds for the construction and purchase of housing.

According to the "Association of Russian Banks" in 2001, mortgage loans were issued in Russia for 56 million dollars. In 2002, already 260 million dollars, and in 2003 there was a predicted doubling - the total volume of loans issued amounted to about 500 million dollars. .

According to the technological process index, Russia ranks 51st among the countries of the world. The technological factor is in many ways the most influential on the activities of a construction organization, on its technologies.

Priority areas for the development of science, engineering and technology:

Information and telecommunication technologies and electronics;

Space and aviation technologies;

New materials and chemical technologies;

New transport technologies;

Production technologies;

Technologies of living systems;

Ecology and rational nature management, etc.

Innovative activity in Russia is low. advanced products and technological processes in industry account for 9.6%. At the same time, according to independent experts, Russia has one of the best scientific and technological potential in the world. However, Russian scientific developments either go abroad for nothing or remain unclaimed.

This factor plays an important role in the analysis of the external environment of the organization. The use of innovations in construction accelerates the process of building construction, reduces costs and increases labor productivity. As a result, the quality of the final product is improved.

climatic factors

The climate of Novosibirsk and its suburbs is continental. Due to the long duration of the cold period, the activity of construction firms increases sharply in the warm season.

The region is well endowed with natural resources. There are deposits of cement raw materials, therefore, production is developed building materials, in other respects, this is typical not only for this region, but also for nearby regions, which means that there should be no interruptions in the supply of raw materials.

The impact assessment and significance of each factor are presented in Table 1.1.

Table 1.1

Name of factors			Weigh. grade
Social Increasing the money income of the population
Rising unemployment
Fertility decline
Growth in labor productivity

Low Presence of a unified legislative framework
The effectiveness of the legislative framework in construction
Law and Licensing
Small business support
Cancellation of real estate licenses

Economic Growth
Reducing the rate of inflation
Investment growth
Budget surplus
The growth of the exchange rate $
Mortgage growth


Economic stability
Joining the World Trade Organization
Approximation of legislative acts to international standards

Technological Low innovation activity
Implementation new technology and technology
Multidirectional development of science, engineering and technology

strategic management business

2.1.1 Characteristics and main indicators of the business area

Industry strategic analysis is an analysis of the external microenvironment, the immediate environment of the company. First of all, it is the analysis of the competitive environment. However, it is impossible without understanding what business area the company belongs to and what features of this business area are inherent.

Our business is related to the production of economic housing in the "working" areas and the outskirts. Construction is carried out according to standard projects. The material from which buildings are built is a panel or a monolith. Number of rooms from 1 to 4. The area of apartments is from 27 to 100 m2. The presence of a balcony in the amount of 0-1 pcs., 1 bathroom, central heating and water supply, natural ventilation.

Let's move on to a direct analysis of the competitive business environment, based on the data in Table 1. Initial data for the analysis of the external environment from the task to the course project.

The GNP growth rate according to 2004 and 2005 data appears unchanged at 1.05. The inflation index is also unchanged in these years and is at the level of 1.05. As mentioned above, the products of the target market are economy class apartments.

For 2004, the indicator had a value equal to 3453125 thousand rubles, multiply this value by the inflation index of 2004 equal to 1.05 and get a value equal to 3625781.25 thousand rubles: 3453125 * 1.05 = 3625781.2 thousand rubles .

For 2004, the indicator had a value equal to 3288690 thousand rubles, we multiply this value by the inflation index of 2005 and by the inflation index of 2006, equal to 1.05 and we get a value equal to 3625780.7 thousand rubles:

3288690 * 1.05 * 1.05 = 3625780.7 thousand rubles

The size of the market in the 2006 forecast year is calculated by multiplying the demand forecast for 2006 (apartments) by the average price of an apartment in 2005 (thousand rubles): 3757*630 = 2366910 thousand rubles. Thus, it can be seen that the size of the market is constantly growing.

For 2004: 3625781.25 / 3625780.7 = 1

For 2005: 3453125/3625781.25 = 0.95

For 2006: 3625780.7 / 3453125 = 1.04.

Let us also calculate the coefficient of the dynamics of the growth rate.

For 2004: 1.08 / 1= 0.92

For 2005: 1.04 / 1.05 = 0.99

We summarize the data obtained in table 2.1.

Table 2.1

We see that the growth rate is decreasing compared to 2004, in 2005 it was 1.05, so we assume that 2005 is at the stage of maturity, where the growth rate is 1.05. In the previous 2004, the growth rate was 0.95 and it was at the deployment stage, where the growth rate of the market size is more than 1.05. In 2006, the stage of maturity is also predicted.

The maturity stage refers to the stable stages of the life cycle. At the stage of maturity, the growth rate of the market is approximately equal to the growth rate of GNP. At this stage, investment needs are minimal, and financial flows become positive; profitable businesses at these stages are "cash generators".

There are two different scenarios of competition at the stage of maturity. The most typical scenario is a non-crowding struggle (the actions of competitors are aimed at maintaining existing positions, or at leaving for newly created segments, a slight strengthening of positions due to market growth). The second scenario is a crowding out struggle, which can be of a price and non-price nature. In the first case, one of the market participants begins to reduce prices in the hope of crowding out competitors. The latter reduce prices after it, or lose ground, leaving the market in general or in specific segments. In a price war, the competitor that wins either has the lowest costs or the largest financial reserves that allow them to sustain losses for a long time.

Non-price crowding-out competition is typical for markets with low price elasticity of demand, it implies fierce competition by improving the real quality properties of the product, or virtual properties (image and prestige, properties based on the consumer's faith and conviction).

Construction products are products for which the period of consumption significantly exceeds the period of production.

Let us define such an indicator as the ratio of demand potential and demand forecast. The demand forecast for 2006 (apartments) was 3757. The demand forecast indicator is usually less than the demand potential, since the demand potential characterizes the maximum number of apartments that consumers would like to purchase in a certain period of time, even if reality does not yet allow this. While the demand forecast indicator gives a much more realistic estimate of demand, it characterizes the number of apartments that can be purchased in the next year.

The value of the indicator is 12, which characterizes the market as promising, i.e. The market will enter the decomposition stage by the end of 2017. Can grow at maturity.

Next, let's analyze how important the market is for a corporation. Let us determine the market share of business No. 1 in the total size of all markets of the corporation. To do this, we divide the market size (thousand rubles) of business No. 1 (2004) by the total size of the corporation's markets:

It can be concluded that the strategic importance of the market in which the business in question is located, in the aggregate size of all markets of the corporation, is very low.

Let's calculate the number of apartments under construction approximately for each competitor in the market. To do this, we divide the value of the demand forecast for 2006 (apartments) by the number of competitors in the market in 2005. The number of competitors in the market in 2005 is 8, while in 2003 their number was 3, and in 2004 - 4.

So 3757 / 7 = 536.6 is about 537 apartments for each competitor.

Thus, if houses are built with 3 - 4 entrances with 28 - 42 apartments each, each of the market participants should build about 4 houses per year.

The industry average profitability is defined as the ratio of the total profit of all enterprises in the industry to the total costs of all enterprises in the industry, that is, Pr i / Zi. It is reasonable to compare it with the regional average.

In 2003, the value of the industry average profitability was 28%, in 2004 there was an increase in its value to 32% and in 2005 it remained at the same level, and the average regional level of profitability from 2002 to 2004 is 44%, which indicates high competition in industries. Moreover, there was an increase in the number of competitors from 3 - in 2003, 4 - in 2004, and in 2005 there were 8 of them, which indicates the concentration of the market, increased competition.

Consider also such an indicator as the spread of profitability of competitors, which in 2005 is 8%. When evaluating it, it is necessary to take into account the competitive situation in the market.

Due to the fact that the number of market segments increased: in 2003 - 1, in 2004 - 5, which changed and by 2005 amounted to 5 - the market is very differentiated with a large number of segments.

The actions of competitors that have significant profitability advantages can be quite active. But the actions of competitors located in less profitable segments and seeking to move to other market segments can also be active.

But in this case, the spread of profitability is 8%, with an average level of 30%, this allows us to say that there is a sharp struggle in the market and the market itself is not stable.

It is also necessary to consider such an indicator as the average share of subcontracting in the total amount of work,%.

The economic feasibility of subcontracting is due to:

the need to use complex or expensive equipment

Increasing quality requirements that require exceptional competencies

Impossibility of using own subdivisions with high time load (insufficient amount of work, short duration of specialized operations in time).

The average share of subcontracting is at the level of 44%, which is the norm, since for most firms the share of subcontracting is at the level of 20-25%. The limit value reaches 50 - 60%. The higher the class of housing, the greater the share of subcontracting used. The average share of auxiliary production in the cost price reflects the level of vertical backward integration.

At the saturation stage, a high level of integration is a problem because significant associated capital investment increases exit barriers, risk levels and, as a result, competition.

Let's define the strategic advantages and limitations of vertical integration. The only significant reason to invest in vertical integration is to strengthen the company's competitive position. Until vertical integration generates sufficient cost savings to pay off additional investments or results in a competitive advantage, it is not justified in terms of either profit or strategy.

Backward integration creates cost savings only when sufficient output is required to achieve economies of scale that are at least as good as those of other suppliers, and when the supplier's production efficiency can be achieved or exceeded. Backward integration is especially advantageous when suppliers have close profit margins, when products supplied are a major cost item, and when personnel with the required technological expertise are available.

Vertical integration back can create a competitive advantage based on differentiation, when a company uses its capabilities that could not be used before, bring to the market a higher quality product or service, expand the scope of services provided to consumers, or otherwise improve performance characteristics of its final product.

Backward integration can also reduce a company's operational uncertainty associated with reliance on major component suppliers and reduce a company's exposure to large suppliers that are willing to raise prices at every opportunity. Stockpiling, fixed-price contracts, multiple suppliers, long-term partnerships, or back-up suppliers are not always attractive ways to reduce supply uncertainty or facilitate relationships with major suppliers.

However, vertical backward integration also has significant drawbacks. First, it leads to an increase in the company's investment in the industry, increases entrepreneurial risk (suddenly the entire industry enters a period of stagnation), and often takes financial resources from other more valuable areas for investment. A vertically integrated company must invest in protecting its current investments in technology and manufacturing, even as they become obsolete. Because of high cost abandoning such investments before they are fully amortized, integrated companies tend to adopt new technologies more slowly than partially integrated or fully unintegrated companies.

Second, backward integration leads to a company's dependence on its own structures and sources of supply (which may later become more expensive than external supplies), which can make it less flexible to meet customer needs for more diverse products.

Third, vertical integration can create problems of balancing production at each stage of the production cycle. The most optimal scales at each link in the cost chain can differ significantly from each other.

Fourth, backward integration often requires specialists with completely different qualifications and different entrepreneurial capabilities.

In our case, the average share of ancillary industries in the cost is growing, and by 2005 becomes equal to 0. The absence of ancillary production products is explained by the fact that the volume of work is relatively small, and also by the fact that the construction technology is a panel, the creation of our own plant for the production of panels requires a very large investment. At the same time, the Herfindahl-Hirschmann index of the base material market is at the level of 6536, which indicates the market's tendency to monopoly.

Let's evaluate another important indicator - the average capacity utilization (AWP), %, is defined as the ratio of the market size to the total production capacity of all competitors.

The norm of this coefficient: 85 - 90%. In our case, the value of the indicator is at the level of - 90%.

We also consider such indicators characterizing the state of the market as price elasticity of demand and changes in average prices, rubles per 1 sq. m. m. The change in average prices is cleared of the influence of inflation, that is, real price changes are displayed. In our case, in the market in 2005 there is a slight change in average prices per 1 sq. m. m. With all the above characteristics, we note that the price elasticity of demand in the market is high. Price elasticity of demand is expressed by the degree of sensitivity, or sensitivity, of consumers to changes in the price of products. In our case, high elasticity is characterized by the fact that consumers are sensitive to changes in product prices, that is, a significant change in price leads to a large change in the number of purchases, which is explained by the reaction of consumers to a greater extent to the price level of the offered housing.

Next, consider such indicators as the number of competitors in the market and the Herfindahl-Hirschman index. The minimum value of the index is related to the number of competitors and is observed if they all share the market equally. In this case, it is defined in the following way:

IHmin = 10000 / n,

where n is the number of competitors in the market.

IC is defined as the sum of the squares of the shares of competitors in the market, and if the shares of competitors are equal, then the share is Di = 100% / n. The maximum value of IC = 10,000 is observed in the case of a monopoly. When perfect competition THEM will seek to stab. If MI is more than 6300, the market can be considered close to monopolistic (concentration in one hand > 75%). If MI is more than 4200, there are some tendencies towards concentration on the market (concentration in one hand is around 50 - 60% of the market). The most typical situation is with IC< 4200 (не достигая низких величин), что характеризуется олигополистической конкуренцией на рынке.

In our case, in 2003 IR = 3300, in 2004 - 2700, in 2005 - 2050, which is typical for market concentration.

Let's calculate Хmin:

in 2003: 10000 / 3 = 3333; in 2004: 10000 / 4 = 2500; in 2005: 10000 / 8 = 1250.

Let's summarize the obtained indicators in table 2.2

Table 2.2

Number of competitors	Number of segments	Ratio	Characteristics have grown (conclusion)
			Oligopoly, high shares of leaders, significant influence of leaders on smaller competitors, competition in segments.
			Oligopoly, growth in the number of competitors, reduced concentration, significant influence of leaders on smaller competitors, competition in segments.
			Oligopoly, concentration increases due to the fact that the market is divided by two large firms (76.1%), competition in segments.

In 2003, 2004, 2005, there is a clear excess of IC over the level of ICmin, which indicates the presence of several main competitors on the market, which occupy a large part of the market, while the shares of the rest remain insignificant. This is also confirmed by data on the business share of 1 corporation at 30.1%, and the share of its largest competitor at 46%.

In 2003, 2004, 2005, the ratio of the number of competitors and segments is observed > 1, which characterizes the increased level of segmentation. One competitor accounts for 1 - 2 segments. Either a broad differentiation strategy or a niche strategy (most likely for less significant market competitors) can be applied.

Next, let's move on to assessing the next characteristic of the market, which is the main technology / wall material used in the market. The main construction technology of our business is panel construction. Prefabricated housing construction has remained a housing construction strategy in our country for almost half a century, so it is not surprising that panel houses today form the basis of the housing stock. Over time, the old series were replaced by new developments of MNIITEP. Innovations mainly affected the layouts of apartments, specifications exterior panels, but the essence of the technology itself remains the same. It was not possible to avoid the traditional flaws for "types". First of all, this applies to unsealed gaps between the panels, through which moisture and cold penetrate into the room. Low sound insulation (you can hear the speech in the neighboring apartment) also cannot please the new settlers. The situation is the same with the ceiling height - 2.64-2.75 m. Nevertheless, apartments in panel houses are well bought. The only reason is the relatively low price. Apartments in them have a smaller area than in monolithic ones. Accordingly, with a difference in the cost of a square meter of only 10-20%, an apartment in a "socket" is cheaper by 30-40%. An additional argument is an inexpensive repair. For typical housing there is no concept of "free planning", and all interior partitions have already been installed, walls and ceilings have a flat surface. New settlers save on the construction of walls and their alignment.

There are no technological changes in the industry. Competitors-leaders adhere to a strategy of broad differentiation, the hallmark of which is the release of a wide range of products for different consumers, products are different from those of competitors, prices are usually slightly higher.

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PEST analysis is a tool for assessing the external environment of an enterprise based on 4 groups of factors:

Political factors ( P). Assess how the political environment affects the company's activities? How stable is it? Are major changes possible?
Economic factors ( E). What is the state of the economy of the market in which the company is positioned?
Socio-cultural ( S). Changes in the demographic state, mentality, level of education, market preferences of the company.
Technological factors ( T). At what level is technical progress? The development of technology directly affects the state of the market.

For this approach to be useful, factors need to be assessed in the long term. It is this vision of the future that helps the company form a viable strategy.

The results of PEST analysis are convenient to use for SWOT analysis.

SWOT analysis is a universal tool for strategic planning. It is based on the systematization and segmentation of information about the internal and external environment of the company. The object can also be a specific product or service.

In the course of the analysis, the company is evaluated from the position of 4 groups of factors:

strengths ( S). Characteristics that distinguish the company from competitors and help to earn.
Weak sides ( W). What slows down the company prevents growth.
Possibilities ( O). Favorable environmental factors that should be used for growth in the future.
Threats ( T). Negative factors external environment that may hinder development and prevent future profits.

This approach allows you to visually assess all the opportunities and risks of the organization's development. Involve company employees who are familiar with business processes in the analysis. Their experience will make the overall picture as complete and informative as possible.

Market size (in prices corresponding to the task year)

Market size in 2004 prices, thousand rubles

Market Growth Rate

Coef. growth dynamics

Life cycle stage

Deployment stage

maturity stage

maturity stage

All companies are like living organisms and go through the same life cycle stages. Understanding the current stage of the enterprise helps to form a strategy for its management and development.

The Adizes life cycle model is divided into 10 stages. According to his theory, the company will have problems at every stage of the life cycle. Problems are divided into 2 types:

Normal. Natural for the current stage of the life cycle. The solution of which helps the company grow and move to the next level of development.
Anomalous. Something that should not have happened at this stage. Require immediate and immediate intervention. Because they can lead to braking and a drop in efficiency.

The age of the company in the concept of Adizes does not correspond to the real age of the company. With the right approach to management, the “Stability” stage can last forever.

In the article, we have analyzed only a part of the strategic analysis tools. Don't try to use everything at once. Start with the most understandable and comfortable to use. Finish what you start to see real results. At the same time, do not forget to return to the analysis and revise the strategy at least once a year.

Analysis of the business environment is the initial process of strategic planning, during which the organization collects and processes the information necessary for making strategic decisions. Moreover, without such information, the organization cannot set strategic development goals.

3 main components of business environment analysis

1. Analysis of the macro environment

2. Analysis of the immediate environment of the organization

3. Analysis of the internal potential of the company

The first 2 elements are related to the external environment. Their main task is to determine what opportunities and what strategic issues may expect the company in the future.

Analysis of the macro environment includes an analysis of the main environmental factors that the organization cannot influence.

It is necessary to accurately determine the possibilities of analyzing the macro environment. Analysis of the macroenvironment is not aimed at an accurate prediction of the future state of environmental factors.

Strategic analysis of the macro environment allows :

1. Help the organization understand current and potential changes and evaluate the direction of their development, as well as assess how current or future events may affect the operation of the enterprise. Moreover, this analysis allows assess the degree of risk in making certain decisions.

2. Allows you to provide important information or initial prerequisites for making major strategic decisions.

3. Regular analysis of the factors of the external environment allows you to form strategic mindset leaders and economists.

The main task is to identify the most significant changes that have already occurred or may occur, assess the degree of their impact on the organization and develop solutions to take advantage of favorable changes or counteract negative changes in the external environment.

In the course of the macro environment analysis must take into account such Aspects How:

1. Redundancy available to the organization information on the state of numerous environmental factors, despite the fact that most of these factors cannot be directly taken into account in the process of developing a strategy

2. Not enough useful information, which allows predicting future changes, since most of the available materials are unsuitable for evaluation and decision making

3. Information received heterogeneous, obtained in different periods of time, is characterized by varying degrees of reliability, generalization and specification, which significantly complicates its use. Example: sell expensive clothes. You can find out how demand changes even monthly. But we lack specificity. Let's say we even found studies on the clothing market. But our clothes are expensive. If we don't pay for research, more often than not, we'll find that the information is out of date.

Abroad, a significant amount is given to the analysis of the macro environment. Since the end of the 50s. analysis tools are being developed and many countries are using at least some elements of the strategic analysis of the macro environment.

As the main methods of strategic analysis of the macro environment are used:

1. PEST analysis . It consists in identifying and evaluating individual factors of the macro environment on the results of the current or future activities of the organization. Assumes a grouping of environmental factors into 4 blocks.

Policy.

Economy.

Society.

Technology.

The specific list of factors to be assessed is determined by the organization itself. Political factors are studied with the aim of clarifying for the organization the intentions of the state regarding the development of society, the economy, as well as obtaining an idea of the means by which public authorities are pursuing or will be pursuing their state policy. In particular, the state of legal support, state regulation (antimonopoly, customs, etc.) is studied, political stability is assessed, the possibility of adjusting the main decisions taken by legislative and executive bodies.

Economic forces are evaluated in order to study the order of formation and distribution of resources. Considered as the main element of pest analysis. Studied, in particular, the exchange rate of the national currency, general characteristics economic situation, resource prices, inflation rate, unemployment rate, refinancing rate, cyclical changes, structural changes and more.

Social environment. The impact on the activities of the organization of the most important social phenomena is analyzed. In particular, population size, age structure, geographical distribution (even distribution by districts of 1 city), family composition, ethnic set, income levels, work, education, leisure, lifestyles, consumption, social values.

Analysis technological components allows foreseeing the opportunities associated with the development of science, innovative solutions, technologies in order to timely abandon outdated equipment and solutions. Recently added more ecological And institutional factors.

The order of the pest analysis:

a. Study and monitoring macro environment in order to detect actual or potential changes in selected areas

b. Grade significance changes for the organization, market and industry

c. A detailed analysis of each relevant change and an assessment of how some changes reinforce or undermine the actions of others other factors.

d. Identifying possible action companies in order to prevent the severe consequences caused by adverse changes and to maximize the use of favorable changes in the macro environment.

In the first step, organizations initially monitor a large number of factors to identify signs of strategically significant change. If such changes are identified, their deeper study or monitoring is carried out, including identifying the causes of the change, dynamics and possible consequences. In the process of learning, the organization is faced with information that reflects future changes in the environment in different ways. If the information sufficiently fully reflects the current state or future changes in factors indicate strong signals . If such information is not available, but indirect changes are observed, then one speaks of decision-making based on weak signals . In conditions of stable development, the absence of serious changes in the external environment, the organization pays more attention to strong signals, and weak ones can be ignored. In times of crisis or sudden changes, there is no time and high risk to wait for strong signals, so decisions are made based on weak signals.

At the second stage, the influence of each selected factor on:

internal activities organizations, i.e. impact on key indicators, strategy, competitive advantages, volume and structure of resources

· markets where the company operates, i.e. on the volume, structure, segments of buyers and features of the resource market

· Influence at industry where the company operates, i.e. on competitors, suppliers, etc. (increasing the rent rate, renting is bad, own space is good, because it’s bad for competitors)

The assessment is carried out in the context scale of change(affects the entire industry or a segment?), direction (improvement or deterioration in performance?), speed of change, degree of intensity of impact.

At the third stage, an assessment is made of the interrelationships of factors

On last step possible actions are considered.

PEST parsing favors sooner qualitative assessments than quantitative. Quantification is likely to be inaccurate. + Identification of cause-and-effect relationships. A report is drawn up, where the results are summarized in a common vision of the assessed changes and perspectives for analysis. Based on the results of the PEST analysis, it can be issued EFAS form :

How to complete the EFAS form:

1) determined by the result of PEST analysis 5-10 the most significant opportunities and threats external environment;

2) each factor is assigned a certain weight value based on a comparison of their impact on the performance of the organization

3) given organization readiness assessment respond to identified changes in environmental factors, i.e. exploit favorable changes or counteract threats. The ability to respond is assessed on a 5-point scale (0 - lack of readiness, 5 - complete readiness)

4) determined weighted estimate each factor and the total sum ( weighted average) for all opportunities and threats. The resulting assessment allows you to get an idea of the degree of readiness of the organization in changing environmental factors. If the weighted average score is low (close to 0.1.2), then the organization not ready to take into account environmental factors, and accordingly risks of loss increase substantially. Under these conditions, organizations are forced to abandon rather risky strategic decisions. If the weighted average is high, then the organization may function flexibly on the market and can afford incl. and more risky decisions.

2. Scenario Analysis.

Appeared in the 70s. Later PEST analysis. First applied in the practice of Shell (oil refining). Today, scenario analysis is considered as one of the most important tools for planning activities in an uncertain environment. Applies government organizations, in military science, etc.

Staff games in the late 40s. Developed development scenarios. A German attack was expected.

Scenario - a certain model of the future, which consistently describes the possible course of events taking into account probabilities their implementation.

The script contains the most important factors, and taking into account cause-and-effect relationships, it is estimated further development industry, market, company itself. As a rule, several scenarios are compiled, the implementation of which is possible under certain assumptions.

The Ministry of Economy uses scenario analysis in our country. Widely used in Russia and abroad. A scenario for the development of the state of the economy of a particular country, depending on changes in some factors (from inflation - in our country, changes in oil prices, changes in the exchange rate).

For example, the Higher School of Economics (in the Russian Federation) if the price of fuel is $ 90, then the Russian Federation can reach such and such performance indicators. GDP growth, real income growth. if $70, then the inflows, the outflow of foreign investments, stock prices, stock quotes, etc. are calculated.

The scenario is always based on one and several key assumptions.

Scenario analysis does not aim to accurately predict the future. Yes, this is impossible, because. All events are probabilistic. The main task is to develop an action plan and assess the prospects for the development of the company. The most probable scenario is taken as the basis for the development of any actions, less probable scenarios can be considered as alternatives that are accepted for development in the event of corresponding changes in environmental factors.

The key uncertainty factor in the world is what will happen to the euro. Greece's exit from the Eurozone, etc. Many probabilities that no one can predict. But the largest banks have long been working on scenarios based on various factors (if Greece exits the Eurozone, etc.). Now banks are working according to the scenario of saving the euro.

There are different scenario analysis methods:

1) quantitative methods (involving the construction economic and mathematical models)

2) qualitative methods (based on the prediction of qualitative changes)

a. intuitive method(pays special attention to qualitative changes by building logical chains of events)

b. peer review method(Delphi method) - a series of interviews are conducted among experts to assess the most likely changes

c. cross-impact analysis- involves working with experts, but they are invited to evaluate not only possible changes, but also the very probabilities of such changes, which allows the scenario to more accurately determine the likelihood of an event occurring and take this into account when developing a strategy.

IN In 1977, after the introduction of scenario analysis by Shell, it rose from 6th place in terms of production to 2nd.

Findings from the Fortune 1000 study

1977 - 16% used scenario analysis

1982 - 32%

1985 - 50%

_____________________________________________________________________________________

Economic and mathematical methods and models

UDC 65.012.123

HER. Abushova, S.B. Suloeva

METHODS AND MODELS OF MODERN STRATEGIC ANALYSIS

E.E. Abushova, S.B. Suloeva METHODS AND MODELS OF MODERN STRATEGIC ANALYSIS

The main definitions are considered and methods and models are proposed that can be used in the system of modern strategic analysis.

ENVIRONMENT ANALYSIS; MACRO ENVIRONMENT; MICRO ENVIRONMENT; INTERNAL ENVIRONMENT; STRATEGIC DECISIONS; PORTER MODEL.

In this article the basic definitions are considered and methods and models are proposed that can be used in the system of contemporary strategic analysis.

ANALYSIS OF THE ENVIRONMENT; MACRO ENVIRONMENT; MICRO ENVIRONMENT; INTERNAL ENVIRONMENT; STRATEGIC DECISION; MODEL OF PORTER.

In modern market conditions dynamically changing environment, fierce competition and unpredictability of economic actions of subjects of market relations, the solution of only current problems becomes ineffective for the enterprise. More and more relevant are issues related to the strategic development of the enterprise and the adoption of strategic management decisions. For right choice and making strategic management decisions, developing an effective enterprise strategy and leveling the negative impact of environmental factors, it is necessary to have sufficient “the right information at the right time”. In this regard, the conduct of a strategic analysis is now becoming simply necessary.

With the help of what methods and models is it preferable to conduct a strategic analysis in order to comprehensively assess the factors of the external and internal environment that affect the activities of the enterprise, to identify key factors success and take effective

management decisions on the choice of strategy - the solution of these issues and ask ourselves in this article.

Review modern methods. Strategic environmental analysis is the initial process of strategic management that provides the basis for defining the mission, goals of the firm and developing strategy. Analysis of the environment involves the study of its three components: macroenvironment, microenvironment and the internal environment of the organization. The analysis of the macro- and microenvironment is aimed at identifying the opportunities and threats of the external environment. The result of the analysis is the identification of key success factors.

Key success factors (KSF) are controlled variables common to all enterprises in the industry, the implementation of which makes it possible to improve the competitive position of the enterprise in the industry. The key success factors may include consumer properties of the product, experience and knowledge, competitive opportunities, success in the market, as well as specific areas of the enterprise, allowing it to

successfully compete with competitors and achieve success. In the process of strategic analysis, the KFU of this industry are first identified, after which measures are developed to master the most important of them in order to succeed in this field of activity.

An analysis of the internal environment reveals those opportunities, the potential that a company can count on in the competition in the process of achieving its goals, as well as the weaknesses of the organization. As a result, the company's core business capabilities or core competencies should be identified.

Competence - the properties that all or most enterprises in the industry possess, necessary for participation or survival in it. Competencies include skills, technology, know-how, etc.

Core competence - key properties specific to a particular enterprise, unique or at least rare, difficult to copy, which are the main reason for competitive advantage. Unlike physical assets, core competencies are not destroyed when used or shared, but are developed.

Thanks to its core competencies, the company has the ability to produce products that customers value more than competitors' products. This is achieved through the best knowledge, possession of information, the presence of skills that surpass those of competitors, the use of the latest technologies, the presence of appropriate relationships between structural divisions, networks created by the company and gained reputation .

Strategic analysis is expressed in the procedure for searching and selecting strategic alternatives. According to the prevailing ideas, strategic analysis aims to find in each process the most stable patterns and trends that can play a role in the future, and to predict production indicators based on them. economic activity. The most important tasks of strategic analysis are the justification of the

strategic plans, assessment of their expected implementation, as well as providing information for making strategic management decisions.

As a result of the analysis of the activity, the enterprise needs to find out what position it is in, as well as how achievable the strategic goals will be. Since we are talking about strategic goals, the focus is on the external conditions of activity, namely, first of all, an analysis is made of the attractiveness of the external environment, the behavior of competitors and consumers.

External review should be performed at the level of the organization as a whole. Carrying out such diagnostics at the highest corporate level not only avoids duplication of work, but also helps ensure that strategic decisions at all levels of the organization are made based on the same vision of the outside world.

Internal strategic analysis should be carried out at the level where control over the resources of the company is exercised, and where decisions are actually made about their effective use.

The main purpose of diagnosing the current situation is to identify constraints and opportunities that need to be taken into account when planning for the future. For this purpose, the analysis of the past situation is of little value. Need information about current moment and about likely changes during the period indicated by the planning horizon. It is also important that the situation is assessed in the context of competitive relations.

The external environment is a set of external subjects and factors that actively influence the position, prospects and effectiveness of the organization. The external environment of the enterprise is usually divided into macro and micro environment.

The macroenvironment includes socio-demographic, technological, economic and political factors. The nature of these factors is such that companies are unable to influence them. There is no need to analyze every facet of the macro environment.

Moreover, it is impossible to do it in full. Therefore, in real life, the area of interest for organizations narrows down to a “meaningful external macro environment”. A meaningful macro environment defines the boundaries of the general environment in terms of analytical purposes. They are based on key aspects that significantly affect a particular organization. Therefore, under the macroenvironment we mean its significant part.

The microenvironment is the environment that directly surrounds the company, i.e. those areas with which the organization interacts or which it itself influences. The microenvironment contains competitors, suppliers, customers of the company, as well as the resources necessary for the successful operation of organizations.

The internal environment of the enterprise - a set of characteristics of the organization and internal actors that affect the position and prospects of the company.

To analyze and predict the development of the macro environment, we recommend using PEST (STEP) - analysis, the purpose of which is to track (monitor) changes in the macro environment in four key areas: P - Political (political and legal), E - Economic (economic), S - Sociocultural (social -cultural), T - Technologcalforces (technological) and identifying trends, events that are not under the control of the enterprise, but that affect the results of strategic decisions.

Caution should be exercised when analyzing the macro environment, as the macro environment is by its very nature a very complex phenomenon. The speed at which changes occur in it is constantly increasing, and changes are turbulent and often unpredictable. Therefore, when analyzing the macro environment, we recommend:

Take into account the limitations and inaccuracies of the analysis;

Conduct analysis on a regular basis;

Constantly update sources of information and improve analysis techniques;

Use information in conjunction with other data.

For the analysis of the microenvironment, the five-factor model of Porter or the resource model is most often used.

At the same time, it should be borne in mind that the resource model is more complex than the Porter model, but it allows you to get a more complete picture of the analysis, understand the nature of competition within the industry and markets, assess the threat posed by competitors operating in other industries, assess your potential for new industries and markets.

The disadvantages of Porter's model include the following:

Internal and external analysis in interaction are not considered;

Companies are assumed to be competitive and non-cooperative;

More attention is paid to the markets for goods and services than to those markets in which the firm acquires resources;

It is not recognized that companies, as a result of their activities, by strengthening their competencies and creating new ones, can change their own competitive environment;

It does not take into account the fact that firms operating outside the industry and market of the organization under consideration can pose a significant competitive threat if they have similar core competencies and distinctive features;

It is not taken into account that strengthening existing and creating new competencies can allow a company to become competitive outside its existing markets;

The five factors are assumed to have the same effect on all competitors in the industry. In fact, the strength of the factors is different for different firms. The model implies that if, for example, the possibilities of suppliers are large, then this situation will be true for all firms in the industry. In fact, supplier opportunities may vary for companies in the industry. Large firms will be exposed to less supplier risk than smaller firms. Firms with well-known trademarks will be less affected by buyers and substitute products than firms with less well-known brands;

Commodities and resource markets are inadequately described. Purchasing power and supplier power refers to the markets in which firms sell

their goods and receive resources. However, the conditions for both types of markets are somewhat more complex than Porter's model implies.

We recommend that you carry out internal analysis using the value chain according to M. Porter. The value chain is single system main and auxiliary activities of an organization that seeks to increase the consumer value of the product and at the same time to reduce its own costs due to the best organization all processes and internal activities at the enterprise. In addition, the value chain also focuses on the processes taking place outside the firm, i.e., each firm is considered in the context of a common chain of activities that create value (value).

1. Analysis of production and economic activities.

2. Analysis of the property complex of the enterprise

3. The financial analysis enterprise activities.

Additionally, when analyzing the internal environment of an enterprise, following methods:

situational analysis;

Desk research (work with accounting documents, statistical and other internal company information);

Observations and surveys of employees of the enterprise using special methods (diagnostic interviews);

Teamwork methods (“brainstorming”, conferences, etc.);

Expert assessments;

Mathematical methods (trend analysis, factor analysis, calculation of averages, calculation of special coefficients).

One of the main methods used to study the environment and recommended for strategic analysis is SWOT analysis. The informational value of the results of a SWOT analysis depends primarily on the ability of analysts to give the evaluated criteria the right estimates and the creativity of the planning team.

To assess competitive positions, we recommend drawing up maps of strategic groups. A strategic group of competitors is a set of competing firms in a particular industry that have common features. Such features can be similar competition strategies, identical market positions, similar products, distribution channels, service and other elements of marketing.

To summarize the results of the work on the analysis of strategic factors of the macro- and microenvironment, it is recommended to use a special form "Summary of the analysis of external strategic factors" (External Strategic Factors Analysis Summary - EFAS). This form allows not only to reveal threats and opportunities, but to evaluate them in terms of the importance for the organization of taking into account each of the identified threats and opportunities in the strategy of its behavior.

Thus, as a result of solving the problem, those areas of the business and its external environment that are critically important for the implementation of the goals and objectives of the organization are identified. Further, on the basis of the information received, the key success factors and core competencies of the enterprise are identified, since in accordance with them the choice of strategy takes place in the future.

All of the above allows you to get a fairly clear idea of the strengths and weaknesses of the enterprise, the opportunities and threats of the external environment. But in addition to this, in order to obtain a complete picture of the analysis of the enterprise’s activities, as well as for the further development of a strategy, it is necessary to determine not only the identified “symptoms”, but also their sources and specific causes. To do this, we recommend using the "Ishikawa" diagram in combination with "why-analysis" and "how-analysis".

For effective use this instrument we propose to create a working group, which will include both managers involved in the development of the strategy, and specialists in strategic management accounting for the mutual exchange of information during the " brainstorming". Working with a diagram resembling the skeleton of a fish boils down to the following: the problem to be solved is written on the right, and on the ends of the branches -

specific consequences that the organization faces. To the left, the main groups of causes are distinguished, and even further - the causes themselves that cause the problems under study (Fig. 1). To identify the causes leading to the appearance of the effect, we use the technique of "why - analysis". Its essence lies in the fact that at each stage it is necessary to raise the question "why?" to each factor until the relationship of causes is clarified. Similar to the “why-analysis”, a “how-analysis” is carried out to obtain an appropriate answer to the question of achieving the planned state, which can become a specific recommendation for action. Then, among all the problems, the main ones are singled out, the resolution of which can form the basis of the developed strategy.

When applying the proposed tool, it is impossible to formulate what information is needed, because in each case there will be different problems, their causes and, accordingly, different recommendations. However, in our opinion, the information obtained in the course of conducting a strategic analysis of the enterprise's operating environment will be sufficient to use a set of these tools.

Further, we propose to modify the classical Porter model to the model of seven forces of competition (Fig. 2), modified to describe the maximum of parameters acting on the firm in the long run to reflect the relationship between supply and demand.

The elements of the schema are:

1. The fight against direct competitors (or the central ring of competition), the nature of which is determined by the intensity, specific forms of competition and the degree of interdependence of rivals.

2. Parameters of demand. Demand is characterized by buyers with a set of benefits and needs. A firm achieves a competitive advantage in demand if it is able to serve the largest share of the absolute market potential.

3. Factors of production - labor resources(quantity, qualification and cost of labor), physical resources (quantity, quality, availability and cost of land, forest resources, etc.), climatic resources, geographical location, financial resources, knowledge resource (the sum of scientific, technical and market information), infrastructure (type, quality of infrastructure available and fees for using it).

4. Technologies and means of production. Technological change is the most dynamic of the seven forces of competition, since a more advanced technology over time replaces the technology that dominates at the moment, and this is the basis for asserting the existence of a product life cycle and competitive advantage due to the emergence, growth, gradual saturation of a derivative need and its decline due to the change of technologies.

Consequence Consequence

Rice. 1. Ishikawa Diagram

Threat of lack of consumers

Threat of adverse influence

Influence groups

Technology and means of production

The threat of new technologies

Competitors in the business area

Rivalry between direct competitors

The threat of the emergence of substitute products;

threat of lack of complementary goods

Related and supporting SPs

Rice. 2. Model of the seven forces of competition

5. Potential competitors and their strategies. It is a threat that the firm must strive to reduce and against which it must protect itself by creating barriers to entry.

6. Groups of influence (GV) - contact audiences that can put pressure on the organization both in the direction of expanding activities and changing it, and even force them to abandon it.

7. Related and supporting business zones (ZX) - zones in which firms can interact with each other in the process of forming a value chain, as well as zones dealing with complementary products.

8. Random events - processes that the company's management cannot predict and manage. These are natural changes, force majeure circumstances,

the role of the human factor, unpredictable changes in supply and demand, etc.

Such a scheme is, in our opinion, the most acceptable, since it takes into account all the factors that operate both in the short and long term, and does not contradict the generally accepted provisions on competition. In the short run, it comes down to competition in the field of supply between direct competitors, since the role of supporting and related industries is reduced to the threat of the influence of products and brands of substitutes; the role of production factors is reduced to the threat of losing suppliers or increasing prices for the supplied resources; the influence of the organization on demand is reduced only to pricing policy, technology and means of production, the role of government and GW remain constant; fight against potential competitors

tami comes down only to the establishment of entry barriers to the SZH. Thus, the competitive struggle model is reduced to Porter's simple scheme of industry competition. If we consider competition between countries, then we reach the macroeconomic level, at which the role of the government is only influencing, not decisive, since competition between countries depends primarily on their economic development. The role of technology and means of production can be attributed to random factors, since they are created not by the country, but by the subjects operating within it. As characteristics of other determinants (demand, factors of production, related and supporting industries, competitors and their strategies), aggregated macroeconomic variables are considered. Considering the scheme of the seven forces of competition for an enterprise, the researcher understands the main difficulty in constructing theories of competition, especially in the long run - the close interconnection and interdependence of all components. The scheme of seven forces is a system, the components of which are in numerous connections, partly determined, and partly stochastic.

The choice of strategy is a rather complicated decision, on which the further work of the entire enterprise largely depends. Therefore, as a result of strategic analysis, we must obtain information that is clear, objective, timely and allows not only to choose a strategic alternative, but also to be able to correct it in the future. We propose to use not only separately existing tools, models and methods, but also their combinations. So, we recommend a set of tools for use, which we will call the “matrix kit”.

The algorithm for using the "matrix set" is shown in Fig. 3.

Based on the information obtained during the strategic analysis of the company's activities, we compile the traditional BCG matrix. This requires data on the market growth rate (GRTav), as well as the relative market share (RSH) of each strategic area of the economy.

vovanie (SZH). For convenience, we depict each SZH as a circle, the diameter of which will be proportional, for example, to revenue. You will get a scatter diagram that will allow you to get a fairly complete picture of the position of the company.

At the second step, we build a modified BCG matrix, which allows, on the one hand, to preserve the main advantages of the traditional model, including simplicity of visual perception and familiar terminology, and on the other hand, to use quantitative information in its construction, which is absolutely always available, accurate, reliable and minimal. by cost, i.e. internal information of the enterprise.

As a characteristic of each product group (horizontal axis of the modified matrix), the parameter K is proposed - “the share of SZH in total volume sales of the enterprise" during the base period (the most typical period is 1 year).

As the second characteristic of the product group (the vertical axis of the matrix), the parameter T is proposed - "the share of SZH in the rate of change in the sales volume of the enterprise" during the base period along a linear or any other trend.

The next step is to identify trends in relative market share. This is necessary in order to assess for the considered SBAs in which direction they “move” along the BCG matrix for a more accurate choice of strategy. We propose to break this step into two parts and build two matrices that focus on different factors. Thus, the Growth / Growth matrix focuses on the market and demand, while the value map pays more attention to the analysis of buyers and competitors. In addition, the "Growth / Growth" matrix allows you to identify the trend in the change in the ODR at the present time, and the value map - in the future.

The Growth/Growth matrix compares the growth trends that are observed in the market as a whole with the growth dynamics of the company, the growth in the production of a certain product of the company or a certain SBA.

INFORMATION DATABASE FOR STRATEGIC ANALYSIS

I. Traditional WSO matria

II. Modified matria BSO

SNF, - >7)

[k,™) (kg ]

III.I. Matria "Growth / Growth-

1dr - DRsch / No) if

III, II. value map

VI Complex matrix BCv

Goals, tasks

Choosing a strategic alternative

SZH y * 3 * dug ODR

V. Reflection of cesium, tasks

Current forecast

SZH SNF ODR

IV. Forecast ttdeniy......

Rice. 3. Algorithm for using the matrix kit

To build the matrix, information is required on the market growth rate, on the revenue growth rate (the K parameter is calculated, as when constructing the modified BCG matrix), the size of the SZH area (which was also calculated when constructing the BCG matrices). The result is a picture, analyzing which we can draw the following conclusions:

If the business has grown at a faster rate than the market in recent years, it will be a circle to the lower right of the diagonal line;

If the business grew at the same rate as the market, then the center of the circle would be on the diagonal;

If the business grew more slowly than the market as a whole, then the circles will be located on the left above the diagonal.

where 1dr r is the index of change in market share,

taking into account market influence; GRTg - market growth rate on the z-th SZH.

If the index value is greater than 1, the SBA increases the market share, if the index is less than 1, the SBA loses the market share, if the index is 1, the SBA retains the market share.

As already mentioned, in order to predict the trend of changes in the ODR in the future, we have developed a method that should help determine whether it is worth increasing the market share using an aggressive strategy, or if the achieved market share of a given product should be stopped and expanded only through the manufacture of modified products. In other words, is our market share “deserved”, or is our share much smaller?

First, a value map is built to determine a “fair” market share based on data on competitive advantage each z-th SBA at the price (^CP), data on the competitive advantage of each z-th SBA

by quality). The latter may be

found based on the values of the customer satisfaction index (1y k). However, unlike a similar indicator used at the stage of strategic analysis, the index should be interpreted, firstly, for each z-th SBA, and not for the enterprise as a whole, and secondly, when choosing assessment factors, the emphasis should be on the quality .

It is the price and quality criteria that were chosen to build the matrix, since they are the main ones when buying a product. Therefore, in order to determine a fair market share, we must look to the opinion of the buyers so that the assessment is objective and reflects everything that affects the purchase of this product.

A value map is built for each SZH separately. All major competitors must be considered. The indicators of price (Pc) and quality (QC) of all competing enterprises are evaluated on a ten-point scale. Further, SZH of all firms are plotted on the coordinate grid of the graph (Fig. 4). The diagonal line in the figure is the line of correspondence between price and quality.

The niche that we will choose will be limited by the income of the consumer, on the graph this corresponds to the assessment of the price of the goods. The buyer we are looking at will definitely not buy a cheap low quality item or an overpriced item. Therefore, all products that fall outside the niche are not considered as competitors, since our consumer will not buy them anyway. In the figure, these are goods B and 0.

In addition, the niche could be limited by the line of technology, since the basis of quality is determined by the manufacturing technology, and it is almost the same for similar products of our companies. Firms with very high technologies sell products at a high price, which does not correspond to the income of our consumers.

But in this model there is a condition that products with very high quality can be cheap, and therefore there are no restrictions on quality, and all competitors strive for maximum customer satisfaction and minimum prices. They tend to hit some ideal area in the upper left corner.

Quality (OK)

Yainim tknmvgsh 1

1 2 3 4 5 6 / 10 9 in 7 6 5 4

Rice. 4. Value Map

All goods that fall on the same line running parallel to the diagonal are equally competitive.

In order to determine the "fair" market share, let's number the x-axis in reverse order from 10 to 1:

Osh \u003d 11 - Ots,

DRsp IC = DGg

DR£ DRReal

where Оц, is the modified estimate of the price of the product

SZH of the 1st enterprise;

Ots; - evaluation of the price of the SZH product of the th enterprise.

The position of each point (П,) is defined as the sum of the abscissa and ordinate axes:

P \u003d Ok, + ots, \u003d Ok, + (11 - Ots,), (3)

where P, is the position of the SZH of the th enterprise; Ok, - evaluation of the quality of the product SZH, the th enterprise.

Let us determine the “fair” market share of each SZH using the formula

where DR^pr is the "fair" market share of SZH, the th enterprise.

where IdPr is the market share change index, taking into account the influence of customers and competitors; DR™r - "fair" market share £th

SZH enterprises; DRreal - real share

market z-th SZH enterprises.

If the index value is greater than 1, the company will be successful, increasing its market share. Conversely, if the indicator is less than 1, then without targeted actions, the market share of this SBA will tend to decrease.

The next step is to forecast development trends. In other words, on the basis of the identified trends and analysis of the situation, it is necessary to assess how the current situation of the SBA will change without the targeted efforts of the enterprise on them. Forecast of change in market growth rates (OKTau) has already been obtained in the course of strategic analysis

Analytical model of strategic analysis

Stage of strategic analysis Forms of presentation of information Tools used

Collection, accounting and analysis of information about the macro environment Graphs, tables STER-analysis

Collection, accounting and analysis of information about the microenvironment Graphs, tables Resource model, model of the five forces of competition, improved model of the seven forces of competition, "matrix kit"

Collection, recording and analysis of information about the internal environment Graphs, tables Value chain, situational analysis, desk research, etc.

Generalization and comprehensive presentation of analysis information Profile of the enterprise environment, modified profile, map of strategic groups, EBAZ form, matrices of opportunities and threats SWOT analysis, benchmarking, mapping of strategic groups

Identification of the causes of events identified in the previous step Ishikawa diagram Compilation of the Ishikawa diagram

enterprise activities. Also, the trend of changing the market share of SZH for today (1DRg) and in the future (ICRg) was determined. Further based on the forecast

we graphically depict on the BSO matrix the “shift” of the SZH.

Information about goals, quantified in tasks, usually obtained at the goal-setting stage, is reflected in the SSR matrix to visualize “what we want to achieve” for each SBA.

Combining all of the above in one complex SSR matrix, we provide the obtained data to managers for the preliminary selection of strategic alternatives for each SBA.

Using the proposed set of strategic analysis methods will allow you to select preliminary strategies.

In conclusion, summarizing all of the above, we offer in tabular form an analytical model of strategic analysis, which includes a set of possible forms of information presentation and a set of tools that regulate at what stages of strategic analysis which existing or improved models are recommended to be used.

So, we have considered and proposed for use in the system of strategic analysis various methods and models, both existing and improved and developed by us, that meet the requirements modern conditions activities of enterprises, aimed at solving specific problems of strategic management, providing the ability to adapt the enterprise to changes in the conditions of the external and internal environment.

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ABUSHOVA Ekaterina Evgenievna - Associate Professor of the Department of Economics and Management in Mechanical Engineering, St. Petersburg State Polytechnic University, Candidate economic sciences, assistant professor.

195251, st. Politekhnicheskaya, 29, St. Petersburg, Russia. Email: [email protected]

ABUSHOVA Ekaterina E. - St. Petersburg State Polytechnic University.

195251 Politechnicheskaya str. 29.St. Petersburg. Russia. Email: [email protected]

SULOEVA Svetlana Borisovna - Professor of the Department of Economics and Management in Mechanical Engineering, St. Petersburg State Polytechnic University, Doctor of Economics, Professor.

195251, st. Politekhnicheskaya, 29, St. Petersburg, Russia. Email: [email protected]

SULOEVA Svetlana B. - St. Petersburg State Polytechnic University.

195251 Politechnicheskaya str. 29.St. Petersburg. Russia. Email: [email protected]

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