“Complete surprise”: sales of electronics collapsed in Russia. The development of online retail in Russia The fall of retail

decline retail turnover for the period of 2015 and 2016 amounted to almost 20% - the Russian market has never known such a fall. Against the background of the collapsed effective demand and the intensification of the struggle for the consumer in retail, there have been trends that will certainly have an impact on the development of the market in the very near future.

More government checks

Amendments to the Law on Trade and regulations left their mark on the relationship of the players with each other and with the state. structures. In 2017, the process of adaptation to work in the new legal environment will continue, which affects both suppliers and sellers.

On behalf of the government, from January 1, 2017, the territorial bodies of the FAS conducted large-scale inspections of the readiness of companies to work under the new norms of the Law “On Trade” and requested tens of thousands of pages of contracts and reports from companies relating to 2015, 2016 and early 2017. The emphasis was placed on large federal networks. “Companies are quite ready to work in the new conditions, although not all contracts with suppliers have been renegotiated for a variety of reasons, from a review of the network strategy to the inability to find the right interaction formula that satisfies both parties in a short time,” said Sergey Kuznetsov, director of the Union of Independent Networks of Russia.

Feds vs. Regionals: Fight Intensifies

The territorial expansion of chains, aimed at capturing market share, has led to the fact that in large cities, stores of federal and regional chains closely coexist and compete for consumers. Local trading companies believe that in their region they manage the network more effectively and know the consumer better.

However, federal networks due to their volumes have the opportunity to sell separate categories goods are 30-40% cheaper. Local companies have to make a difficult choice - to sell individual products at a loss, not to sell them at all, or to look for replacements for them. And it is far from always possible to find an adequate replacement for large federal manufacturers.

“The thesis that competition is getting tougher has been heard all the time, but this year it is worth changing the term, as competition has become tougher than ever, and this will have to be reckoned with,” notes Ivan Fedyakov, CEO INFOline.

Industry leaders are trying to capture the market

The market leaders have become even bigger. According to preliminary data from INFOLine's annual rating of retail chains, in 2016 the top 100 Russian retail accounts for a third of the total retail turnover. At the same time, 10 players consolidated more than half of the revenue attributable to the top 100, which is 4 trillion rubles.

There is a revival in wide retail. The consumer is stocking up on New Year's assortment on the eve of the holidays. However, this picture is not as rosy as it might seem at first glance. Prices are rising, purchasing power is falling, and it will not get better - these are the forecasts of the participants in the key link in the trade chain - distributors.

Karolina Kuznetsova, regional manager of the trading company "Global Trading": “Even compared to 2016, sales have declined. Of course, before the New Year, our customers try to buy goods, but they do not make such large stocks as before the crisis. Moreover, many of those who used to buy 20 tons each, today take 2-3 tons of goods, respectively, we had to stop cooperation with such customers, which became unprofitable for us. We work at very low prices and at the same time give a large volume, which means that the priority is the customer who is able to pay for the whole container.

Before the New Year, there is traditionally a growing demand for canned fruits and vegetables, fish, cereals, primarily rice. But, again, customers buy a little more product than during the year - maybe one percent.

Evgenia Dodulina, Commercial Director trading company "Prodservice": “We specialize in the meat trade - this is a product that, in principle, is always present on the consumer’s table, no matter what the year is, and for the vast majority, holidays are unthinkable without it. But I can’t talk about the New Year’s surge, which we expected and which was always present in sales during this period.”

Natalya Merzlyakova, head of the Eleon trading company: “This has never happened to us - even in the last crisis of 2008-2009. Compared to 2012-2014. Demand has doubled. If in 2012 before the holidays I could not leave work for a minute, today I have a lot of free time. And every year sales are getting weaker.”

The economy must be economical

The decline in sales is observed along the entire length of the distribution chain - from manufacturers to retail shelves, and this trend has been going on for almost four years. Experts say: the consumer continues to become poor, sales continue to fall, and accordingly, the market is being rebuilt towards the economy segment.

Karolina Kuznetsova: “The product range has changed quite a lot. The demand for the economy segment is growing during the year retail chains most of them asked for it. So, for example, one of our customers left canned saury of the middle price segment for economy. Therefore, the manufacturer also adapts to the market. Of course, Dobroflot will not produce very low-cost products under its own brand, but today some new, cheap brands are being created - for example, Neptune, that is, manufacturers bring such goods into a separate segment and every year they try to expand the line.

As the economy continues to slow down, the assortment of general retailers would become more democratic if the delivery of products was not marked by an increase in Russian Railways tariffs.

“Our products have risen in price due to the increase in Russian Railways tariffs - by about 3 rubles per kg,” notes Evgenia Dodulina.

At the same time, according to experts, the meat industry was affected by the rejection of Brazilian imports. From December 1, Rosselkhoznadzor temporarily restricted the import of pork and beef products from Brazil - the department found a banned growth stimulant - ractopamine in the goods. But distributors and retailers believe that this ban rests on big politics. And, as was already the case with the closure of Turkish, American import routes, someone's business tied to Brazilian products suffered. But a number Russian manufacturers received winning positions.

2018 will be marked by austerity, experts say — even more stringent, given that the costs of logistics, utilities, etc. are growing, while the real incomes of the population are falling.

Evgenia Dodulina: “Look around and you will see that the market has already changed. Companies began to save, and to a large extent this affects personnel policy. Orientation - to more qualified personnel, and it is important that these personnel are engaged in work for 8 hours of working time. Weak companies closed down, strong ones, on the contrary, began to think about how to develop further. In the Far East, such budget chains with reduced prices as "Radius" and the Novosibirsk chain "Svetofor" appeared. Remember, there were none before the crisis.”

The market will no longer be the same, at least in 2018-2019. - exactly, experts warn, despite the promising news that "the Central Bank believed in the future of the Russian economy." And while Elvira Nibiullina declares that “the economy is stable, it can and should grow faster,” the consumer buys the cheapest champagne for New Year's table Fortunately, today he has a variety of choices.

“The most budgetary champagne today can be purchased in the region of 150 rubles. These are mainly sparkling wines of Russian production,” says Olga Shilova, Deputy General Director of ZAO Pacific Food Company.

In obese years 2012-2014. there was no such range. Today he appeared, in accordance with the Italian proverb, which in the Russian version sounds like "Roberto loved olives, and now he loves potatoes on onion sauce."

Marina Ostanina, General Director of the trading company "Rusimport - Primorye": “We note with regret that New Year's budgets are being cut. Corporate events are becoming more budgetary, and in many companies they are simply cancelled. In addition, it cannot be discounted that if earlier it was a widespread tradition to celebrate the holiday at home, with the family, today many of our citizens have changed their priorities and fly to warm countries, which means they are taking with them money that they could spend here. Compared to last year, the demand for New Year's gifts and toys has decreased in stores. The same applies to alcohol. Of course, some of the stable consumers remain, but just as a 20% drop in sales occurred 2 years ago, these figures remain approximately at the same level. People have reduced the cost of consuming alcohol.”

Julia PIVNENKO

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Development of online retail in Russia

Yandex.Market and GfK Rus have prepared another study on the development of the e-commerce market in Russia. The study is based on a survey of 2,823 Russian online shoppers aged 16 to 55 living in cities with a population of 100,000 or more. The survey was conducted in September 2017. Full version the report can be downloaded.

The number of online shoppers in Russia continues to grow rapidly. According to GfK Rus estimates for the spring of 2017, almost every third Russian aged 16 to 55 has bought goods online over the past six months. Over the year, this figure has grown by 20%, and since the spring of 2014 - by more than three quarters.

Where do they buy

Nine out of ten respondents over the past year, from September 2016 to September 2017, made purchases in Russian online stores. The proportion of buyers ordering goods in their city is growing - apparently, there are more local stores, and they are expanding their assortment. Sellers in small towns reserves for growth remain - if 91% of the surveyed Muscovites shop in Moscow stores, then in cities with a population of 100,000 to 500,000 people, only 56% of residents use the services of local stores.

About two-thirds of respondents have bought goods abroad in the last 12 months - this indicator has not changed much compared to last year. The audience of foreign online stores continues to refocus on China. This is especially noticeable in cities with a population of 500,000 to 800,000 people. Here, the share of those who make purchases on Chinese sites has grown from 58% to 66% since last year. In general, than smaller city, the more popular Chinese stores there - and the less its residents shop in other countries.

Buyers choose foreign online stores primarily because of lower prices - this reason was named among the main ones by 76% of respondents. Other common motives are a wider assortment (33%) and the opportunity to find goods that are not available in Russia (32%). The main reasons for not buying abroad are - long terms delivery (39% of respondents) and fear of becoming a victim of fraud (27%).

What do they buy

The top products by the number of online buyers have not changed in recent years. Both in Russian and foreign online stores, most of the respondents order clothes and shoes. In addition to clothes, in Russia many people buy small household appliances and cosmetics, in China - smartphones and goods for children, in other countries - cosmetics and, again, children's goods.

Average check

For the last year average check in the online store grew to 6,410 rubles, which is almost 1,000 rubles more than a year ago. The growth affected both Russian and foreign stores. For Russian and Chinese sites, this is the first noticeable increase in the last three years, while in stores in other countries, the average check has been steadily increasing since at least 2014.

Computers remain the main device for online shopping, but their popularity is gradually declining. Over the past year, approximately 20% of purchases were made from phones and tablets. The share of orders from tablets remains stable at about 5%, while the share of smartphones has grown by 70% since last year and almost seven times since 2014.

Most of the purchases made in Russian online stores with mobile devices, was issued on the websites of sellers. People used mobile applications only in 27% of cases. With foreign stores, the situation is reversed: 80% of purchases from smartphones and tablets were made through applications.

Discounts, promotions, spontaneous purchases

In Russian online stores, the share of discounted purchases is steadily growing, but so far remains lower than in foreign ones. Perhaps for this reason, unplanned purchases are more often made abroad. At the same time, the share of stock purchases in Russian stores twice as high as in Chinese, and a quarter higher than in stores in other countries.

Based on Vend's Retail Trends and Forecasts 2017 report. Like the 2016 edition, it reveals the trends and issues (including personalization, in-store experiences, and advances in payment technology) that are having a significant impact on the retail industry.

1. Retailers that improve product quality, transparency, and stability will thrive

Because online today you can find any information, buyers no longer agree to be in the dark about the products they buy.

The rise of transparent, environmentally conscious companies such as Warby Parker and Everlane in recent years has initiated a radical change in the industry. retail. We expect this trend to pick up pace.

Consumers are becoming more and more interested in where their money goes, rather than just the product they buy with that money. It is no longer enough to simply sell high-quality products without any information about their background.

On the contrary, buyers have reached out to retailers who show all the internal mechanisms of their work. Everlane, for example, discloses the cost of manufacturing its products: materials, labor, duties, and markup. They also include information about the factories where the goods are made, add photos and videos of workers and themselves. In this way, Everlane customers know exactly what was spent on the production of the product they are about to purchase and can feel the satisfaction of the preparation and morale involved in their purchase.

Several factors are at play in this trend: the worldwide transition to sustainable development, the desire of consumers to be more ethically conscious in their purchasing decisions, and a greater interest in supporting brands with a "strong identity consciousness".

Example. Recently, a client of Vend, Bread and Butter Letter, a New Zealand-based vintage clothing and home goods boutique that sells exclusively New Zealand-made goods, told us: “We have noticed that our customers are increasingly asking serious questions: where do the goods come from, what are they made. We also noticed that people are more likely to refuse our paper bags and bring their own!”

Until July 27, IKEA Centers Russia is looking for innovative retail solutions. If you have the technology to make shopping in mall more comfortable!

2. Stores that provide a unique in-store experience will thrive

In 2017, retailers will rule the roost by providing unique in-store experiences. Finally, the only way Convincing a customer to come to your store instead of shopping online is to give them an experience they can't get anywhere else.

When we hear “in-store experiences” in relation to retail, most of us think big: we think of the fact that Urban Outfitters buys Pizzeria Vetri to incorporate into their stores, or smart fitting rooms at Rebecca Minkoff.

But this is only one aspect of the two directions of the shopping experience trend. And what is the other? Finding ways to catch up and surpass the convenience of online shopping.

Most retailers are attempting to do this by creating an omnichannel shopping experience - in other words, bringing the benefits of the online world to brick-and-mortar physical stores.

Take, for example, Crate + Barrel. A home improvement store recently tested a program called Mobile Cart. Shoppers browsed the racks using the store-provided tablets, could use them to scan barcodes and learn more about products, add items to their wishlist, and get help from sales assistants when choosing items.

The in-store experience is becoming increasingly important for customers and we expect more retailers to invest in such initiatives.

3. All retailers will implement mobile payments

Mobile payments are the way of the (coming) future. Until the end of 2017, retailers who have not yet implemented them will make every effort to do so.

According to forecasts by the end of 2016, the number of mobile payment users worldwide will reach 447.9 million. TechCrunch estimates that 70% of all US mobile users in 2017 will make at least one mobile payment. Mobile payments are expected to reach $60 billion overall in 2017, and Business Insider writes that mobile payments will reach $503 billion in sales by 2020.

It's clear where the retail industry is heading in terms of payments - at least for now.

Retailers that do not implement mobile payment solutions soon will be left behind. per.] and risk losing their sales volumes, and this can mean losing a lot of money.

We can bet that all retailers will jump on this train by implementing mobile payment systems that suit them best, such as mobile POS systems, custom payment mobile applications(like Kohl's Pay) or third party solutions (like Apple Pay).

In 2017, the development of contactless transactions - be it a contactless card or a mobile device with a digital wallet - will accelerate. We are seeing robust double-digit growth in contactless transactions in Canada. The US will also be stimulating this growth due to its transition to EMV. Businesses that process transactions should think ahead and find a solution that supports contactless capabilities to upgrade their EMV systems in the future.

Consumers like touch and a business must prepare to excel in this area. With the continued adoption of Apple Pay, Android Pay, and Samsung Pay in North America and around the world, the importance of contactless payments will grow. Consumers will expect opportunities in whatever way they want, and businesses will need to evolve with changing customer expectations.

4. Small shops are coming; big ones go

The evolution of consumer preferences will push even more chain retailers to focus on smaller stores.

When it comes to store size, in 2017 less means more. We're already seeing changes with retail giants like Target, Best Buy and IKEA investing in small-format stores to meet consumers' desire for more controlled merchandise.

To better understand why shoppers are leaving big-box stores, we need to look at another big retail trend: the importance of convenience and accessibility. When people can shop online and have their purchases delivered directly to their homes within hours, they need to be promised a quick and easy shopping experience to entice them to go to a physical store.

Shoppers no longer want to waste valuable time wandering through the endless aisles of hefty hypermarkets. On the contrary, they want simplicity and efficiency in the form of small shops with a specialty selection.

Small shops have other advantages as well. They require less cost to open and maintain, and they take up less space in an urban environment, allowing retailers to capitalize on the potential of densely populated centers.

5. Personalization will become more important for consumers

Sure, Nike is big and financially successful, so they have the resources to push personalization to its limits, but smaller retailers can take advantage of this trend too.

Ideas? Targeting content (using means such as purchase histories) to users based on their preferences, using location technologies such as beacons to display personalized offers on customers' mobile devices. Small shops have other advantages as well. They require less cost to open and maintain, and they take up less space in an urban environment, allowing retailers to capitalize on the potential of densely populated centers.

Consumers are starting to expect more from retailer loyalty programs. They want more personalization and offers that money can't buy. According to a Virtual Incentives survey, 56% of consumers said that receiving personal bonuses would improve brand perception.

The means of gaining access to customer data that makes these personalized bonuses and offers possible are typically loyalty programs. Consumers are increasingly willing to give access to personal data for honest loyalty offers or personalized incentives. According to Accenture, 54% of consumers say they are willing to share personal information and shopping preferences with retailers in order to receive personal offers(growth from 33% in 2014).

In 2017, retailers will see the benefits of this amazing new technology, which makes it easy to collect customer information, and are aware of the need to use this data to create more personalized loyalty programs and offers, instead of past generic and boring options.

6. Same day delivery will come to the fore

Free shipping to modern world It's no longer just an option, but a requirement. Name new game? Speed.

Consumers may no longer want to go to physical stores themselves, but still want the immediate enjoyment of being able to take their purchases home immediately. The best way to ensure this - same day delivery of the order.

Take iPic Theaters for example. The company's website greets visitors with the headline "Your Best Night Out" - and they really mean it. iPic combines the classic movie experience with luxurious seating, cocktails, and award-winning gourmet restaurants. Customers can even order food and drinks from their seats while watching a movie.

These innovative concepts provide enough incentives for people to take a trip to a physical location, so we'll see even more of this next year.

9. Information is still an essential component of retail success

More retailers will use every part of the process, from the supply chain to the post-purchase stage.

Retailers who make data-driven decisions will outperform those who don't. More and more merchants are recognizing this - which is why we think companies will double down on data collection and analysis.

JustFab is one example of a company that puts their customer data to good use. To learn more about your community, a retailer fashion clothes conducts style surveys and then makes recommendations based on individual preferences. JustFab also carefully tracks the products that each member of their program reviews, rejects and buys, and uses this data to suggest choices.

Using information to personalize the interaction with each customer is just the beginning. Data analysis also plays an important role behind the scenes, especially when it comes to inventory management and distribution. Retailers rely on data to predict demand and make critical inventory control decisions.

1. Stores that prioritize product quality, openness and continuous development will prosper

Today, you can easily find any information on the Internet, so the buyer will not be special work find out absolutely everything about the product of interest. Buyers prefer those stores that show the kitchen of their business, for example, they talk in detail about what makes up the price of their product: raw materials, staff, taxes, markup. They give information about the plants and factories where these products are produced, accompanying all this with photographs and videos, showing their employees.

2. Stores that have unique product expertise will thrive

The only thing that motivates a customer to make a purchase in a retail store and not on the Internet is knowledge about the product, which he will not get anywhere else. Most retail store owners are trying to build an omnichannel shopping experience - moving all the convenience of online shopping to retail stores.

For example, an American chain store household appliances Crate and Barrel recently tested a program in which shoppers browse shelves using store-provided tablets. Customers can use the tablet to scan the barcode and get Additional information about products, add them to wish lists, and get help from the seller in order assembly.

3. All retailers will accept payments from mobile devices

This is the future. In 2017, those retail store owners who are not yet using this technology will certainly do so. Stores that are not going to follow this trend will fall behind and risk losing a lot of money.

Store owners will receive payments from mobile devices, choosing the technology that suits them best: mPOS systems, various mobile applications or Apple Pay.

4. The format of a small store will be popular, a large one will not.

Consumer preferences will push large retailers to focus on smaller stores.

In 2017, the area of ​​stores will decrease. In the US, this is already evident in such giants as Target, Best Buy and IKEA. They invested in small format stores to make it more convenient and convenient for customers to choose goods.

To understand why shoppers don't go to big stores, you need to know another big trend in retail: the importance of convenience and accessibility. When people can shop online and receive home delivery within hours, only the convenience of shopping can lure them to an offline store.

The client no longer wants to spend precious time walking through the endless areas of huge stores. He needs to buy quickly, in small stores with a good and verified assortment.

There are other advantages of small stores: lower startup and management costs, as well as the ability to integrate into the urban infrastructure of large cities due to compactness.

5. Personalization is becoming more important for consumers

According to Accenture Interactive, 56% of consumers will choose a store that knows their name.

Personalization in retail has been going on for years. Unfortunately, such a tool as referring to the client by name (for example, in e-mail), is outdated and customers will not be surprised by this. At the moment, the owners are looking for new opportunities for personalization.

For example, targeting customers through the purchase history. On the mobile phone personalized offers are sent to them when special program determines by the geolocation of the smartphone that the client is near the store.

6. Same day delivery is getting more and more popular.

Free shipping is understandable. What else? Speed!

People may not want to go to the store, but they still need something urgently. Exit - delivery on the day of order.

A recent study by Temando found that 80% of surveyed shoppers want same-day delivery; 61% of respondents want their purchases to be delivered even faster - within 1-3 hours from the moment the order is created.

making such a delivery is not the cheapest option for retail, as there are a number of issues that will have to be resolved: ensuring the constant availability of goods, procurement and logistics.

But it is clear that the demand for fast delivery there is. And store owners will have to do something to meet expectations.

7. Store owners will continue to invest in omnichannel

Omnichannel is now the norm. Stores that choose an omnichannel strategy will be successful - it's something that won't let you down.

They sell through social networks, for example, through Instagram. Take advantage of various apps like Snapchat to give customers a behind-the-scenes look at the store's processes, thereby increasing loyalty. In the future, it is the presence of several sales channels that will distinguish a successful store from a ruined one.

8. Retailtainment - the combination of entertainment and sales - will spread in the industry

Retail, as the name suggests, is a combination of retail and entertainment - some store owners tend to sell in an original, fun, unconventional way, and this greatly increases sales.

For example, the American cinema iPic combines a classic cinema with luxurious seats, signature cocktail menus, and a gourmet gourmet restaurant. Visitors can order food and drinks directly from the cinema hall while watching a movie.

This approach encourages people to go somewhere, and not sit at home on the Internet. That is why in 2017 retail will be used more and more actively.

9. Statistics are still very important for successful trading.

All more shops will use the accumulated data to analyze all trade processes: from the analysis of the supply chain of goods to the process of repeat sales.

Stores that make decisions based on data analysis will be more successful. More and more entrepreneurs are realizing that this is necessary.

Data analysis is also important for the back office of the store, especially in terms of inventory management and merchandising. Store owners rely on sales data to forecast demand and manage inventory.

10. Specialty stores will be more in demand than department stores.

Specialty stores focus on specific product categories, such as beauty products. In 2017, buyers are interested in the original assortment and local brands.

Specialized stores, as a rule, are very attentive to the assortment - they sell designer goods, handmade. They also look more modern than old-school department stores. The millennial generation, of course, chooses a trendy format.

Specialty stores also have good product expertise, they have more qualified personnel, the best prices and personal service. This is their advantage over department stores.

By the way, department stores still do not die out. Well-known network giants have quite strongly revised their approach to doing business and strive to look no worse than specialized ones. outlets. However, the future still belongs to small shops.

11. Retail will increasingly use apps, services and third-party services

The number of retail apps will grow and store owners will use them to stay competitive.

It's no secret that consumers today expect a lot from stores. In addition to the fact that sales must be conducted in several channels (retail, online, through social networks), people want to receive their purchases very quickly and in a way that is convenient - either self-pickup or same-day delivery. This is quite difficult to organize, so the owners will use specialized solutions and applications, refer to courier services to deliver orders quickly.

12. Shops and technology will become one

In order to interest the client and be in demand, store owners will introduce even more technologies into their business.

In 2017, technology will become a way to attract customers to offline stores and create a successful multi-channel business: artificial intelligence, augmented and virtual reality, the Internet of things.

For example, with the help of augmented reality tools, buyers will be able to understand how to use a particular product. There are "smart" fitting rooms, touch screens in showcases.

Small and medium business will implement loyalty programs, use storefronts and other solutions that will bring sales to a new level.

2017 is the time for those who strive to improve every aspect of the customer experience and personalize sales.