The potential market capacity is: Encyclopedia of Marketing. Methods for determining the real audience

Concept and types of market capacity

When organizing own business and drawing up a business plan, it is necessary to analyze the market and possible risks. For the business to make a profit, and starting capital began to multiply, one should define such a parameter as market capacity.

Definition 1

Market capacity is the size of the market for a particular product or service, expressed in terms of total sales over an estimated period of time.

Also, market capacity is understood as the total demand for products, expressed in the purchasing power of the population. This economic parameter determines the possible potential sales turnover for a specific time period. It is measured in monetary (rubles, euros, dollars, etc.) and natural quantities (pieces), as well as in the volume of goods (liters, kilograms).

Objectives of studying and assessing market capacity:

1. market development forecast;
2. creation and launch of a new organization on the market;
3. development and implementation of a new trademark;
4. identifying new market segments and niches;
5. identifying directions for market development;
6. determination of the company's development strategy.

Note 1

To analyze changes occurring in the market, it is imperative to know the market capacity of a particular product and what share the company occupies in the market. Therefore, market capacity is the main characteristic of any market. Knowing this parameter allows you to make a decision about the advisability of entering the market, determine the assortment and pricing policy.

There are three types of market capacity:

• actual;
• accessible;
• potential.

Figure 1. Correlation between three types of market capacity. Author24 - online exchange of student works

The potential capacity of a market is understood as its size, which is based on the maximum level of development of demand for a product/service among the target audience. The maximum level of demand is the achievement of a culture of using a product to its maximum (frequent consumption and use of products by consumers).

The actual or real market capacity is based on the current level of development of demand for products/services among the population. It is determined by the current level of knowledge, consumption and use of products.

Available market capacity is the size of the market to which an enterprise claims its rights with its products in combination with certain characteristics (price, quality, distribution channel, etc.) or the level of demand that the company has all the conditions and capabilities to satisfy.

An enterprise that is able to satisfy demand, taking into account available resources and goods with certain characteristics, can lay claim to the available market capacity.

Factors influencing market capacity

Market capacity is influenced by various factors that can both stimulate the market and weaken its development, thereby limiting its capacity. These factors are divided into two groups: general and specific.

General factors include socio-economic factors that determine the market capacity of any product. This group contains:

1. volume and structure of product offerings;
2. assortment and quality of manufactured goods;
3. degree of market saturation;
4. import volumes by product or product group;
5. level of price ratio for products/services;
6. the state of the trade, sales and service network;
7. population size;
8. the achieved standard of living and needs of the population;
9. purchasing power of people;
10. demographic characteristics of the population (gender, age, social status);
11. territorial location of markets.

The state of the market depends on many processes. This is inflation, the introduction of various restrictions (embargo, sanctions, etc.), the introduction of new monetary units, the formation of commercial and other structures.

Specific factors influence the development of markets individual goods. Each market has its own factors that are unique to it. A specific factor can become decisive for the formation and development of supply and demand for specific products or service.

Market-specific factors include the following:

• market for fabrics, clothing and footwear – changes in fashion and trends, natural and climatic conditions, national traditions, etc.;
• durable goods market – achieved level of population security, growth housing construction, periods of moral and physical wear and tear, rising energy prices, etc.

Note 2

All factors that determine the development of supply and demand in the market are interconnected. Changes in some factors cause changes in others. At the same time, some factors cause transformations in both the market capacity and its structure, while others cause structural changes in the market without changing its capacity.

Methods for determining market capacity

There are various methods for determining and calculating market capacity. therefore, the results may vary.

There are three methods for assessing market capacity:

• method for assessing the total market capacity (assessment of current demand, used when introducing a new product or discontinuing obsolete products);
• method for assessing the territorial capacity of the market (used to calculate the optimal level of distribution of goods across different geographic markets);
• method for determining the capacity of the national commodity market ( own production in the country – export + import).

There are also three basic methods for calculating market capacity:

1. bottom-up method;
2. top-down method;
3. based method real sales.

It is necessary to take into account that the market consists of segments, so you should calculate the capacity of each part of the market, add the values ​​and get the total market capacity.

Note 3

The most common method is the bottom-up method. This method determines the market capacity from the perspective of current demand. Capacity is equal to the sum of all expected product purchases by consumers over an estimated period of time (usually a year).

Formulas for calculating market capacity using the bottom-up method:

$E (thousand pieces) = H × N$

$E (thousand rubles) = H × N × Tsr$

$E (thousand l) = H × N × Vav$

$E (thousand units, thousand rubles, thousand liters)$ is the market capacity in physical (in jokes), in monetary (in rubles) and volume (in liters) terms;

$Н$ – size of the market target audience;

$N$ is the rate of consumption of goods for the period;

$Tsr$ is the average cost of a unit of goods on the market;

$Vav$ is the average volume of one package of goods.

In the second method, market size is calculated based on sales data for domestic market all its participants for the calculation period (if it is impossible to cover all players, you can take only large entities).

$E = ∑ sales of \ all \ companies \ on \ the market (at \ retail \ prices)$

The method for assessing market capacity based on real sales is the study of sales of individual product categories based on real customer receipts. For analysis, only large networkers are used, which, by agreement, provide all comprehensive information. The data obtained can then be extrapolated to the entire country. This method is effectively used to estimate sales in terms of quantity, price and volume.

Determining market capacity.

Market capacity is the quantity (value) of goods that the market can absorb at certain conditions for some period of time. As a rule, market capacity is determined in terms of specific goods and services.

Market capacity is the possible volume of sales of a product/service at a certain price level. The market capacity indicator is calculated in money - i.e. this is the maximum amount that the seller(s) can receive on this market under constant circumstances (supply volume, demand level, prices, etc.). In some cases, market capacity can be expressed in in kind, but a business is usually interested not in how many pieces it can sell, but in how much money it can earn for it.

Determining market capacity

Market capacity (calculated, forecast) - value of market capacity obtained on the basis of calculation methods. Capacity measurements are variable in nature, and therefore the resulting values ​​may vary depending on the information collection methods and calculation formulas used. The simultaneous use of several approaches increases the likelihood of obtaining accurate results and, when there is a lack of information, is practically the only acceptable alternative.

Determining market capacity

The production method for determining market capacity in theory is also found under the name “based on structural characteristics market".

The total market capacity (E) will be calculated

E = P + V imp – V ex + V meas.

where P is the volume of production in the country for the period under review,

V imp and V ex are the values ​​of the volumes of imports and exports of products, respectively,

V change skl – the amount of change in the volume of warehouse stocks at the beginning and end of the period

Determining market capacity.

Determining market capacity by industry growth

The essence is to calculate the market capacity by extrapolating data on its growth over the past few or more years, provided that the macro environment is stable. Thus, the market capacity of a certain period is taken as the basis.

And multiplied by the growth factor.

E = E prsh * k growth,

Where E prsh is the capacity of the previous period, taken as the base,

k growth - growth coefficient (with 5% growth, the coefficient will be equal to 1.05).

Determining market capacity

Research Panel Index Method

It is sometimes called the "Nielsen panel method". To calculate market capacity based on a panel of sellers, using this methodology, we have the following formula

E = (∑ (Vin - V iк) + Pr i) / K n * 12/T * Ktotal, i=1, … K n,

Where Vin and V iк are the volume of warehouse stocks at the beginning and end of the study period in the i-th store

For i, sales volume in the i-th store during the study period K n number of stores included in the panel

T period for which data is collected, expressed in months

Ktot is the total number of stores selling the product under study.

Determining market capacity

Method based on product consumption rates

This technique is used for systematically purchased and quickly consumed consumer goods (for example, toothpaste). The basis of the formula is the amount of consumption during one use of the product. Then the calculation of the capacity will take the following form

E = ∑ D i * C * T i ,

D i - number of product users in the selected group,

WITH - volume of product consumption per use,

T i - frequency of circulation per year.

H arr =C*T – annual consumption rate

Determining market capacity

Method of summing primary, repeat and additional sales

Partially this method well known through the lens of repeat sales for durable goods. In this case, a simplified approach is applied, related to the service life of a unit of goods and the total quantity of goods in use, which gives

Epovt= V*(1/ T sl) ,

V- total volume of a product in use, T is the service life of this product.

Determining market capacity.

We now turn to the total market size for durable goods, using the volume of initial, repeat and additional sales.

It should be remembered that the primary sales market is summed up from those who purchase products for the first time; additional sales market - those who purchase goods

To already existing. Hence

E = Eper + Epovt + Edop

Determining market capacity

Purchasing power index method

The method is applicable mainly to assess the capacity of regional markets, provided that the capacity of the entire market is known. Thus we have

Ep = E * And ps,

Where is the capacity regional market, IPS - regional purchasing power index

market, the calculation of which takes into account shares of disposable income with weighting coefficients, retail turnover and population in relation to the country.

(∑ (Vin - V iк) + Pr i) / K n is also called the panel index. A completely similar scheme is used to carry out calculations on the consumer panel. It is worth remembering that the “research panel index method” for the same product when using seller panel techniques must be the same as the buyer panel.

Determination of shares of the enterprise.

Market share is the ratio of the sales volume of a certain product of a given organization to the total sales volume of this product carried out by all organizations operating in a given market. This indicator is key when assessing competitive position organizations.

The information basis for calculating the market share of a product of a certain brand (for simplicity, the market share of a certain brand) is the sales volume of competing products. Thus, market share is an estimate, unless it is determined by expert method by asking experts direct questions regarding their opinion on the value of this indicator for individual products.

The article provides complete visual information about how and why market capacity is calculated, and contains theoretical and practical information for independent calculations.

A little theory

Unfortunately, not all entrepreneurs are aware that the development of any business requires a careful and targeted strategic approach. Making decisions blindly can lead to significant financial losses, excess production or lost profits, decreased competitiveness and, as an extreme option, the ruin of the company. One of the main tools for making management decisions serves as knowledge about the structure and conditions of the market, its capacity. Let's give examples.

Let's say you sell goods for 200,000 rubles per month, and together with your competitors - for 800,000 rubles. But you know that the market can consume goods worth 950,000 rubles, how will you behave in this case? Surely you will start aggressive marketing policy in relation to other players in order to win the remaining market share?

Another example: your sales are 450,000 rubles/month, and together with your competitors, similar products are sold for 600,000 rubles/month. while the market can purchase a similar product for 1,000,000 rubles. What will you do with this information? Of course, expand production.

Or the third situation: your sales are 900,000 rubles/month, together with your competitors you sell for 980,000 rubles/month, and the maximum purchasing power of the market is 1,000,000 rubles/month. What does this state of affairs tell the manager? - need to invest stable income from sales to new product development or even business development.

To summarize: market capacity is the amount of a product that can actually be sold in a clearly defined market in a specific period of time. Capacity may be temporary

• daily (how much bread can one region buy in a day?),
• monthly or quarterly (how many hairdressing services will the city buy per month?),
• annual (how many tons confectionery products will eat a specific area in a year?).

And on a territorial basis, respectively, local and niche. Also, market capacity can be potential (the most probable here and now), actual (total sales volumes of all operators) and available (that part of the market that your company can conquer).

Now let’s figure out how to get this valuable information and calculate market capacity.

What data is needed to calculate market capacity?

Incoming information	Explanations
market definition and audience size (KA - number of audience)	Here we determine the territory in which the goods are sold, the number of actual or probable consumers and the form of accounting. For example, goods such as bread, cable television, toilet paper, and televisions are purchased not individually, but for the family, so the market is calculated in households. Personal consumption goods - cosmetics, clothing, piece products and items (bottled beer, cakes, toothbrushes, etc.) are calculated per person. Quantitative indicators can be obtained from free statistical sources.
degree of consumption intensity and frequency of purchases (PP - consumption frequency)	The second input figure for analysis is the frequency of purchases of a product in a certain period of time (or, as an alternative, the rate of consumption of a product per person). For example: cable television is paid once a month (monthly purchase), bread - daily, toilet paper - once 2-3 weeks (pack per family), televisions - once every 5-7 years. This kind of information can be obtained based on a consumer survey, generally accepted standards (for example, it is recommended to change a toothbrush every six months) or on an expert assessment.
average bill- average cost of the product in rubles. (SP - average price)	Not only your product is taken as a basis, but also the entire competitive line. You can calculate the average cost yourself by receiving the price lists of all competitors. Customer surveys (at what price do you usually buy this product?) are also very effective.
average volume and type of product (O - volume)	For example, if we are talking about: bread: loaf, loaf or half a loaf; cable TV - number of channels (package volume); toilet paper- roll or packaging; TVs - diagonal; carbonated drinks - bottle volume, etc. This indicator may not be used in calculations. but it is a kind of criterion for consumption volumes.

Calculation technique

Step 1: calculate the maximum potential capacity

To calculate the total potential market capacity of your product in a certain region, we use the formula:

Total potential market capacity = KA*PP*SC

Let's look at the example of a cable television provider. Input data:

Considered time interval: quarter;

Considered territorial market: city N with a population of 320,000 people;

Number of audience: 106,000 households (if there is no information on the number of households in your region, you can use Russian population statistics, according to which an average of 3 people live in one house).

Consumption frequency: 1 time per month (subscription fee), respectively, 3 purchases per quarter (if your product is purchased less frequently, then the frequency may not be expressed in whole numbers: an annual subscription to a solarium translated into a quarterly period will have a frequency of 0.25).

Average price: 180 rubles

Average volume and type of product: Basic package with 120 channels.

Let's calculate: 106,000 consumers *3 purchases per quarter*180 rub. = 57,240,000 rub. - we got the potential market capacity. i.e., such an amount can be earned by all cable television providers, provided that absolutely all apartments and houses in the city are connected. Now it is necessary to bring these figures closer to commercial realities.

Step 2: determine the audience using the product

We continue to look at the example of the capacity of the market for cable television services in a particular city. We define target audience cable TV services (survey, statistics, observations) and bring it to a certain size.

Let's say, based on the results of a survey, you see that 45% of all respondents living in your coverage area (city N with 106,000 households) use or want to use cable TV: (106,000/100)*45= 47,700 households - a quantitative indicator of your market in which all your competitors operate.

Step 3: determine the purchase period

In the case of our example, this period is a month (subscription fee). If you have consumer goods or services, then you should again proceed from the results of a survey of city residents or product consumption standards.

For example, per day per person the standard bakery products is 300 grams, respectively, per month - 9 kg. Bread is usually bought per family, so one household receives an average of 0.7-1 loaves per day (not everyone eats lunch and dinner at home).

If we talk about cosmetics, then this is an individual product. For example. Day face cream is usually packaged in 30 ml. One-time use is 0.3-0.5 ml. those. A jar of cream will last a woman for 2-3 months.

Step 4: calculate the average purchase price

To do this, you need to make a price and product range of your competitors.

For example:

We bring the price per ml to our reference jar of 30 ml and see that its average market price is 30 * 2.25 = 67.5 rubles.

Step 5: determine the share of competitors

To do this, it is necessary to conduct a serious study of the representation of competitors and their sales volumes. If we are collecting information for everyday goods, it will be enough to conduct an inventory of competitors' sales points in the city. If these are services, calculate the average flow of clients (observation, survey, purchasing data from employees, control visit). Based on practice, we can say that the simplest and most effective method obtaining information is guerrilla marketing, or, more simply put, questioning competitors’ employees.

For example, a cosmetics manufacturer may instruct its supervisors to measure the availability of competitors' products on shelves or request this information from stores. In the case of cable television, a follow-up call would work well: introduce yourself as a subscriber and ask directly how many people use the services of the provider.

Of course, the numbers will be very approximate, but this is not a problem, i.e. Marker values ​​are needed for calculation.

Step 6: calculate market capacity

To make the description clear, let's return to our cable TV. We have potential capacity, we calculated it by multiplying all households in the provider’s coverage area by the average cost of the package, and we received 57,240,000 rubles or 106,000 subscribers.

Let us remember that this is the absolute maximum of the market, beyond which it will not be able to develop under current conditions. Now let's calculate the actual capacity:

(own sales volume + shares of all competitors).

For example:

• the cable TV provider has 14,000 subscribers in its database (47% of the total volume),
• competitor A - 8,000 subscribers (27%),
• competitor B - 7,000 subscribers (23%),
• small networks - 1,000 subscribers (3%).

Total 30,000 subscribers* average price 180 rubles = 5,400,000 rubles - monthly market capacity covered.

Now consider the survey data, according to which 47,700 households seek or use cable TV services. 47,700*180 rubles (average price) = 8,586,000 rubles. - This full actual (real) market capacity.

We consider: total actual capacity 47,700 - covered capacity 30,000 = 17,700 subscribers (or 3,186,000 rubles, or 37.1%) - this is the uncovered part for which we must fight.

Step 7: calculate the available market capacity

Here we will need information about the share of each competitor. Consider:

In a realistic forecast of available market share, it is natural to assume. that its distribution will roughly correspond to the same pattern observed among competitors, i.e. the percentage share, plus or minus, will remain, which means that cable television providers can count on:

• your company - 8319 subscribers (47% of the total volume),
• competitor A - 4749 subscribers (27%),
• competitor B - 4071 subscribers (23%),
• small networks - 531 subscribers (3%).

8319*180 rub/month = 1,497,420 rub/month - this is available market share, although you can always strive to conquer 100% of the unreached part.

Under capacity market refers to the aggregate demand for products in a certain territory and at the current price level. The concept of market capacity strongly correlates with the concept of “” (you can read about market share in this article -) - the capacity indicator is a divisor when determining market share, to be more precise.

It is these two indicators that allow us to assess the dynamics of ongoing changes and the current situation on the market. It is important to understand that they only work in pairs: share without capacity will give an incorrect (or incomplete) picture, and capacity without share is an indicator that is not related to a specific organization.

How is market capacity measured?

Cost and natural measurement of the indicator is possible. In the first case, the result is expressed in units of goods, in the second - in rubles. The second option is considered more preferable, since the first does not allow assessing the company’s profit. The billing period is most often a year, because many goods (for example, ice cream) have a seasonality factor - the sales schedule of such goods when calculated, for example, by quarter, will take the form of a sinusoid, therefore, it will be problematic to determine the upward or downward movement.

Calculation technique

Market capacity is divided into two types:

Potential capacity is largely a theoretical indicator and is calculated based on the assumption that the level of consumption is maximum. Real capacity takes into account actual consumption and is used in forecasting. Some sources also talk about accessible capacity - that part that the company has not yet conquered, but can conquer.

Capacity calculation is carried out in the following steps:

• The total potential profit is determined. The formula used for this is:

where KA is the number of audiences, CP is the frequency of consumption, SP is the average price.

Consider the example of cable television.

Territory of consumption – cityN, where 999 thousand people live. There is a small aspect here due to the specifics of the product: they connect one cable TV per household, so we need to calculate the number of households. If there is no information on this indicator (which is quite possible), the Russian average is taken - 3 people per household. Consequently, there are 333 thousand households. This will be the value of CA. Purchase frequency – once a month (the user pays a monthly subscription fee). If we calculate the annual capacity, it turns out that PE = 12. Let’s take the average price of the service as 150 rubles.

How to interpret this figure? Quite simply: if every household decides to install cable television, all providers offering services in city N will be able to earn 600 million rubles per year. Naturally, such a situation is impossible - first of all, because not every consumer needs cable channels.

• Determined real audience. There are several methods for determining it - about this we'll talk below. One of the methods is a banal survey. Let us accept the condition for the problem under consideration that, based on the results of the survey, it was determined that 50% of respondents use or wish to use cable television. Thus, the potential audience is 167,000 households.

• The purchase period is determined. With our example, this is easy to do, because a person pays for cable channels once a month. The calculation is much more complicated for bread or, for example, hand cream. In the first case, you have to refer to the standard for consumption of bakery products (there is one - it is 9 kg per month per person), in the second - for packaging and one-time consumption.

• The average check is considered. At this stage, a price cut of competitors is made. Consider the following table:

Conclusion: the average cost of the service is 150 rubles per month. Our example is again quite simple to calculate - in the case, for example, with creams, we have to calculate the average cost per milligram, since the container may not be uniform in capacity.

• The shares of competitors are determined. Methods for obtaining information on competitors' sales - huge amount. One of the most effective is considered to be guerrilla, that is, surveying directly employees of a competing company; however, this method requires finding an approach to employees who, as a rule, are aware that their actions can be interpreted as opportunistic behavior and even betrayal. In the case of cable television, it is possible to use a test call, that is, posing as a potential subscriber who is at a crossroads of choice, try to find out over the phone how many people use the services of the provider. Of course, all sources other than the company’s profit and loss statement will provide only very approximate information, however, obtaining accurate data is not the goal of this stage.

• Calculating the actual capacity. Let's say we received the following data:

That turns out to be only 95,000 subscribers. Taking into account the fact that the average price of the service is 150 rubles, the covered capacity is 14,250,000 rubles. The total market capacity is determined as the product of the average price by the number of households that have expressed interest in connecting to cable TV. That is, 150 * 167000 = 25050000 is the real capacity. We can conclude that 10,800,000 rubles (the difference between the actual and covered capacity) is the uncovered part that is still available for capture.

• We calculate the available market share. To obtain information about what share of the uncovered part the analyzed company can still capture, it is necessary to determine the share of the company's current subscribers in the total capacity. In determining the available share, we assume that the distribution pattern will approximately remain the same. Let's determine the share of existing subscribers: 30,000 / 95,000 = 32%. We calculate the available share: 10800000 * 0.32 = 3456000.

Thus, the available share is approximately 3.5 million rubles, although nothing prevents the company from striving to completely conquer the unreached part.

This video briefly explains how to calculate market capacity:

Methods for determining the real audience

As mentioned earlier, before moving from calculating the potential market capacity to calculating the actual one, it is necessary to draw a conclusion about what part of potential consumers are really interested in purchasing the product (or are already using it). Already here, at the very beginning of the calculations, the company may encounter difficulties, which in the future will force it to abandon the idea of ​​​​conducting analysis at all. You can calculate your real audience using one of the following methods:

1. Surveys and questionnaires. This is cheap and cheerful, but not always effective, since the company risks receiving false information twice. Both the respondent himself and the employee conducting the survey can lie by incorrectly recording the respondent’s feedback.

1. Social media. This method is effective only for certain groups of goods, for example, mobile phones or Internet service packages. It is necessary to proceed from the fact that the pages in social networks mostly young people have. Researching, for example, the bakery market using this method will be incorrect, since bread is consumed by everyone, from old to young.

1. Testing respondents. This method involves selecting consumers (respondents) based on various criteria - family wealth, age - and recording their purchases. It is possible to use special scanner cards: the respondent presents such a card when making a purchase, after which the receipt data appears in the company’s database.

Of the methods described above, the third is the most accurate, however, its use is possible only in those countries where trade automation (presence of pin pads) is at a very high level.

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The main task of market research is to determine the market capacity.

Market capacity is the existing or potential volume of sales of a product over a certain period of time.

The capacity of the commodity market is understood as the possible volume of sales of goods (specific products of the enterprise) at a given level and ratio of different prices. Market capacity is characterized by the size of population demand and the amount of product supply. At each moment of time, the market has quantitative and qualitative certainty, i.e. its volume is expressed in value and physical indicators of the goods sold, and consequently, the goods purchased.

To determine the capacity of national commodity markets When preparing and conducting expert operations, the concept of “visible” consumption of goods is used, i.e. own production of goods in the country minus exports and with the addition of imports of similar goods.

Or = Vв + Vi - Ve

Or - market volume

Vв - production volume

Vi - volume of imports

Ve - export volume

Market capacity is measured in physical and/or monetary terms.

Two levels of market capacity should be distinguished:

1. potential

2. real.

The actual market capacity is the first level.

Potential capacity denotes the maximum possible sales volume in a market situation when all potential customers purchase goods based on the maximum level of their consumption. Real Capacity assessed as the achievement of actual or projected sales volume of the analyzed product.(2)

Methodology for studying market capacity

The practice of marketing research shows that data on the market capacity of certain goods and the share occupied by individual manufacturers are currently of great interest to the manufacturers themselves. They are necessary both to expand the position of a company that already has a strong position in the market, and to penetrate the market of a new company or brand.

The need for such information has already been formed: today there are many organizations that conduct this kind of research. marketing research. However, after reading reports and articles on such studies, numerous questions arise both about the methodology of conducting and about writing the reports. Therefore, I would like to raise the question of the correctness of using certain methods to study market capacity and the most common, in our opinion, errors. We think that this kind of discussion will be interesting and useful to specialists working in this field.

Studying market capacity or market demand involves determining the sales volume in a designated market of a certain brand of product or a set of brands of product for a specific period of time. (3)

The study of these parameters is usually carried out in five main areas:

1. analysis of secondary information;

2. production and sales of products;

3. costs and consumer behavior;

4. calculation of capacity based on consumption rates for a given type of product;

5. determination of capacity based on “reduction” of sales volumes (when the known market capacity in one region is the basis for calculating market capacity in another region by adjusting it using reduction factors).

Consider:

1. Analysis of secondary information . Includes analysis of all documentation that may contain information about the market we are interested in and may be useful in marketing activities: statistical data, government data, market reviews, specialized magazines and articles, Internet data, etc. However, the information obtained in this way most often turns out to be incomplete and quite difficult to use when practical application and often of dubious reliability. (4)

2. Market research from the standpoint of production and sales of products. Includes research into manufacturing, wholesale and retail. Information obtained from this source allows us to determine real sales volumes and representation of manufacturers and brands. Given that the number of sellers is smaller than the number of buyers, such research is often carried out more quickly and costs less than consumer research. The problem is how accurate the information provided by manufacturers or sellers will be, and how representative the surveyed sample of sellers will be of the general population (the entire mass of those operating in the market). retail outlets, selling products).

3. Costs and consumer behavior. We study either the costs that consumers made for the products we are interested in over a certain period of time, or the frequency of purchases and volumes of purchased products together with the average retail price sales or consumption rates for a given product. At the same time, the study allows us to raise a wide layer of materials concerning the behavior and motivation of consumers: their attitude towards a particular brand, the volume of a one-time purchase, the frequency of purchasing a product, the expected price of a product, the degree of brand distinctiveness, brand loyalty, motivation for choosing a particular brand goods, etc. The question of the accuracy of such information is how accurately and truthfully buyers will reproduce their consumption data.

4. Calculation of capacity based on consumption rates for a given type of product . This approach is used, as a rule, for food products, raw materials and consumables. The statistical basis for calculations is the annual consumption rates per capita and the total population. Thus, the final capacity figure is obtained by multiplying the consumption rate per inhabitant by the value of the total population.

5. Determination of market capacity based on “reduction” of sales volumes. A similar calculation method is used mainly by companies with significant experience in individual geographic markets. The calculations use data on the actual volume of product sales in one region and factors that determine sales. Using the latter, the coefficients of bringing sales of one region to another are determined (coefficients of bringing the population, average wages, urbanization, prices, consumption patterns, etc.).

Conducting research on manufacturers and sellers of products to obtain market data is quite common for marketing company, however, there are errors here too.

As experience shows, one of the most common mistakes is failure to ensure representativeness of the sample.

Identification of cause-and-effect relationships in the market under study is carried out on the basis of systematization and analysis of data. Systematization of data consists of constructing grouped and analytical tables, time series of analyzed indicators, graphs, diagrams, etc. This is the preparatory stage of information analysis for its quantitative and qualitative assessment.

Processing and analysis is carried out using known methods, namely grouping, index and graphical methods, construction and analysis of time series. Cause-and-effect relationships and dependencies are established as a result of correlation and regression analysis of time series.

Ultimately, a description of the cause-and-effect relationships caused by the interaction of various factors will make it possible to build a development model in the market and determine its capacity.