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Stages of economic forecasting. The general forecasting procedure - the main stages. By timing, forecasts are

Forecasting, like any economic activity, is carried out on the basis of ordered rules and focuses on solving the target tasks arising from the purpose of entrepreneurship. Predictive studies are needed to make sure that the goals set by the enterprise are realistic and favorable for the enterprise.

Forecasting - this is a system of quantitative and qualitative pre-planning surveys aimed at finding out the possible state and results of the enterprise's activities in the future, on the basis of which the possibility (probability) of achieving the goals set is determined. Usually, forecasts indicate the probable degree of possible deviation from certain goals, depending on the method of future actions and the influence of various external scientific, technical, natural, climatic, socio-economic and political factors. Forecasts take into account the requirements of the plan, but are an independent form of foreseeing the objective process and the possible final result of the implementation of the set goal in terms of time (years, months) and resources expressed in money.

The forecasting process has a number of stages:

First stage- determination of the socio-economic order on the part of society for manufactured products and the identification of market demand for these products;

scientific and technical forecasting, which determines the probable natural-real state of the predicted object;

economic forecasting, the tasks are:

anticipation of the possible availability and distribution of resources in various sectors of the economy and directions in which the enterprise can operate;

determination of the lower and upper limits of the results obtained for the invested labor and capital for the selected predictive objects;

assessment of the maximum possible amount of resources, the allocation of which for the development of the enterprise in the chosen target direction is justified in order to solve the corresponding economic and scientific and technical problem, etc.

Most general indicators, which should give a forecast, are:

the probability of achieving the set goal within the direction considered in the forecast;

capital investments required for the program as a whole and at each stage of the forecast period;

labor costs (in man-hours) in each separate segment of the forecast period with the allocation of costs by occupational category;

current production costs at each stage of the forecast period with the allocation of costs at various stages of the life cycle of products;

the profit of the enterprise received as a result of achievement of an object in view.

Practical task of forecasting, as one of the elements of economic management, is to determine the reality and expediency of the planned strategy. Therefore, forecasting has a significant similarity with planning. However planning is the process of making and practical implementation of managerial decisions, and forecasting– formation of possible prerequisites for making such decisions. Plan and forecast- these are not two alternative approaches to establishing the prospects for economic and technical development, but mutually complementary stages in the development of economic plans with the determining role of the plan as the main tool for managing the organization. Therefore, in all cases, a transition from the predicted indicators to the planned ones should be ensured, taking into account their differences.

The directive nature of planning implies its targeting, and forecasting may not correspond to the current organizational and economic structure of the enterprise and may not have a specific administrative address. The nature of planning is aimed at overcoming the probabilistic nature of economic development. The process of developing the plan is variant in nature, but the approved plan is a developed directive development option that is subject to practical implementation. The forecast is based on foresight and is alternative (variant), not only as a development method, but also as an end result.

The main function of the forecast is the substantiation of the possible state of the object in the future and the determination of alternative ways and deadlines for achieving the goal. The forecast is probabilistic in nature, but has a certain degree of certainty. In practice, a forecast is a pre-planning document that fixes the likely degree of achievement of the set goal, depending on the scale and method of future actions.

To forecasting functions also include:

quantitative and qualitative trend analysis;

probable alternative change in the future development of the enterprise, taking into account the prevailing trends and goals;

assessment of the possibilities and consequences of active influence on the foreseeable processes and trends.

The forecast is the basis for developing a strategic plan and organizing enterprise management. Therefore, it covers:

analysis of the development of the industry of the predicted direction of production, its characteristics and the current state of supply and demand;

the main macro-technical and organizational-economic problems and the timing of their solution in the industry, the country and abroad;

availability of materials, technology and equipment suitable for the manufacture of predicted products;

the expected volume of production of the target product for the enterprise from competitors and the future demand for it in the markets;

the expected cost of development and production of this product and its market price;

the power necessary for the efficient manufacture of new target products;

the need for labor resources and their availability, taking into account changes in the structure of personnel, their qualifications and the expected growth in labor productivity;

identification of promising technical and economic solutions for the enterprise, already prepared, but not widely used in practice;

assessment of the importance of ongoing research, requiring costs for solving future technical and economic problems.

Depending on the internal and external situation, as well as the goals that the management of the enterprise determines, two approaches to developing forecasts: genetic (research) and target (normative).

Genetic Prediction consists in identifying economic and production-technical laws and possibilities of a given direction of production based on the natural logic of development inherent in this direction; assessment of possible changes in the range, characteristics and volume of products; determination of achievable values of economic and technical parameters and indicators of new products and the timing of their release.

Target forecasting is aimed at formulating and concretizing the long-term goals for the development of this enterprise and determining the necessary funds and deadlines for solving a separate complex and all the tasks taken together for restructuring production, creating and mastering the production of new products with the necessary technical and economic indicators in the required volumes. The basis of this forecast is the setting goal and its required future parameters, on the basis of which the goal is achieved and possible paths of movement from the present to the future are determined.

Compilation and coordination of forecasts based on these two approaches helps to obtain the most complete material for determining the policy of the enterprise.

By deadline distinguish forecasts:

operational- with a period of up to 3 - 6 months from the start of the forecast countdown;

short-term- up to one year;

medium-term- up to 2 - 3 years;

long-term- for a period of up to 10 - 20 years or more.

As a rule, the longer the period for which the forecast is made, the greater the deviation of the actual data from the forecast in the future may be.

All forecasting methods can be divided into passive and active. Passive forecast is based on the study of economic processes with a rather pronounced inertia. Active(or target) is based on a system of models and techniques that take into account the possibility of influencing the overall course of economic processes.

The most famous and common forecasting methods are:

expert opinions, which are based on the ordered opinions of highly qualified experts;

extrapolation or statistical methods based on the processing of retrospective data about the object of forecasting and the dissemination of past trends to the future;

modeling methods, i.e., the construction of a structural, physical or mathematical model that adequately reflects the most significant regularities in the behavior of the forecasting object and their relationship with external factors.

Expert Methods predictions are divided into:

methods of individual expert assessment and assessment of the type of interview;

methods of the commission (collective discussion), including "brainstorming";

methods of collective expert evaluation - expertise.

Expert Methods are currently the most common due to their relative simplicity and mobility. On their basis, the vast majority of forecasts are made.

Extrapolation methods are reduced to the processing of available data on the object of forecasting for the past and the dissemination of the trend discovered in the past to the future.

Modeling methods are the most complex way of forecasting, and consist of a variety of approaches to forecasting complex processes and phenomena. These methods may overlap with extrapolation and expert methods.

Forecasts are developed not only for the enterprise as a whole, but also for individual facilities: workshops, branches, individual products and technologies. In this case, the methods may be different. Often applied script methods- a business game, when, with the help of simulation models, possible prospects for the development of complex phenomena with numerous interrelations are considered in order to form a general view of the set of problems and processes related to the object under consideration.

The reliability of forecasting is largely determined by the completeness and reliability of the information used, which the enterprise must accumulate and systematize in a data bank.

Forecasting, especially long-term forecasting, is an obligatory component of determining the goals of an enterprise, developing a strategy and tactics for its activities, planning, especially long-term planning, and preparing targeted functional programs for market development, investment, and innovation.

5. Planning is a means of strategic management

The essence of strategic management consists in choosing the strategic goal of the enterprise and the formation and distribution of material, labor and financial resources within the enterprise, focused on achieving the strategic goal and effectively responding to current changes and new external trends.

An enterprise may have not one, but several strategic goals. For example:

mastering the production of a fundamentally new product that has no direct analogues;

the establishment in certain markets of a monopoly on the sale of its products;

expanding the specialization of the enterprise and sales markets to a safe level so that it is not threatened by a sales crisis in any one area of \u200b\u200bproduction.

The main reference point for all components of strategic management is the ratio "enterprise - environment - situation".

Strategic management includes two distinct but mutually complementary processes - strategy formulation and strategy implementation.

Strategy formulation- is a direct process of strategic regulation, which includes:

assessment of the potential chances of achieving the goal;

possible alternative goals;

assessment of the action of internal and external factors associated with the achievement of the goal;

the choice and final formulation of the goal, i.e. the adoption of the strategy.

Strategy implementation, in contrast to its formulation, it includes a number of organizational and administrative, integrating, coordinating and control actions, as a result of which the enterprise gradually modifies its structure, resources and ultimate goal, focusing on the patterns of future behavior outlined by the strategy.

In this way, strategic management includes: strategic planning, current tasks that are directly related to the implementation of the strategy and act as a control and corrective element between strategic planning and plan execution control, and strategic control.

6. Business plan: principles and technique of drawing up, structure

The concept of "business plan" was introduced into the economic life of Russian enterprises very quickly. Entrepreneurship schematically represents a constant process of decision-making, their implementation and analysis of results. The basis for making effective, rational and optimal decisions is the planning of the company's actions.

Business plan- this is a progressive form of planning, which allows you to see the tasks assigned to the company in a comprehensive manner, in the interconnection and interconnection of all sections and aspects of the plan. it first function business plan. The second most important function business plan - attraction of investments for the implementation of investment and innovation projects.

Thus, a business plan is necessary:

for planning the socio-economic activities of the organization for the future;

to attract foreign investment - loans, credits, shareholders, shareholders.

Business plan- this is a document on the basis of which an investor or lender forms his opinion about the company and decides on the provision of funds to the borrower.

The business plan must convince the lender of the reliability of the company and the guarantee of repayment of the loan and interest on it within the terms specified in the contract, because. In the process of analyzing a business plan, the lender considers the company's activities from the point of view of reliability and sustainability, and the investor - from the point of view of return on investment.

The business plan should be well designed, easy to understand, easy to read and understand. Many firms apply for financial resources, so the competition between them for obtaining investments begins with the presentability of the business plan, with its design, appearance, cover, drawings, etc.

The most important principle of modern marketing is the orientation of the company not on the product, but on the market and meeting the needs of the consumer. Therefore, it is necessary to reflect in the business plan the benefits that the consumer will receive in comparison with the products of competitors, and which will create a competitive advantage for the company in the market: quality, time savings, money savings, convenience, complexity, guarantees, after-sales support, etc.

In the business plan, it is necessary to emphasize universality, uniqueness, market advantages (the latest equipment, technology, favorable geographical location, highly qualified personnel, etc.). It is especially necessary to reflect the human factor in a favorable way: who is the owner, the composition of managers, their professionalism, and the high efficiency of their work.

The success of a business plan largely depends on the ability to show positive results for the future development of the company in the event of investment, supported by economic calculations, greater reliability of the company and its staff, high profits and profitability of the project.

business plan must have:

title page, which must contain:

name of the project and its cost;

the full official name of the company, under which it appears in the registration documents, the brand name of the company;

organizational and legal form;

the legal address of the company indicated in the registration documents;

company postal address;

surname, name, patronymic and positions of the company's management, contact numbers;

serial number of the copy of the business plan;

business plan confidentiality stamp.

summary- a summary of the business plan on several pages (the company, its products, market place, resources, suppliers, customers, market opportunities, financial picture with the calculation of the necessary funds, directions for their use and expected profit, alternative options in case of success and failure ), the main purpose of which is to intrigue, arouse interest and attract the attention of the investor. It depends on the quality of the resume whether the investor will read the business plan or not, the resume should “smell of money”;

the main part of the business plan;

glossary - dictionary of special terms (technical, economic, etc.);

accompanying documents(attachment: registration document, articles of association, patents, licenses, financial documents and analysis of economic activities for the previous five years and the reporting year, reports, balance sheets, break-even point calculations, booklets, drawings, samples, copies of agreements and contracts, opinions of independent auditors, insurance contracts, recommendations, conclusions, etc.).

Approximate structure of the main part of the business plan

1. Analysis of the industry, market, enterprise, its products:

analysis and review of the industry, markets, the results of its testing;

description of the enterprise, its place in the industry, competitiveness, personnel;

description of the product, the need for it and the demand for it, the importance and special consumer properties, uniqueness, life cycle.

2. Management and ownership:

structure of governing bodies;

board of directors, key managers, their brief description;

owners, their share in the capital.

3. Production plan:

calculation of production capacities;

description of production technology;

description of the organization of production, resources, personnel policy;

calculation of possible risks and ways out of them.

4. Marketing plan:

marketing strategy - goals and plan to conquer the market;

description of the main competitors, miscalculation of their strengths and weaknesses;

pricing strategy and pricing policy;

a system for promoting products on the market;

5. Financial plan:

analysis of the actual financial position of the company;

plan and forecast of financial receipts, broken down by time intervals;

plan and forecast of future expenses;

analysis of income and expenses, profit and loss;

calculation of own sources and necessary borrowed and attracted investments.

The planning and reporting forms (according to international requirements for drawing up a business plan) include:

operational plans and reports for each period and for each group of goods;

plans and reports on income and expenses for the production of goods (services), profits - losses for each type of goods;

cash flow plan and report, which shows the receipt and expenditure of money in the course of the company's production activities;

balance sheet of the enterprise, summing up the results of activities;

break-even analysis of commercial activities using formulas and graphs.

Chapter 8. PRODUCTION PROGRAM OF THE ENTERPRISE

Science-based forecasting is an important tool of modern management. It is used both for strategic planning of the development of individual enterprises and for the development of long-term socio-economic programs at the state level. The structure and steps of this process are closely related to the methodology and the adopted model.

Definition

Forecasting is a system of theoretically substantiated ideas about the possible future states of an object and about the directions of its development. This concept is similar to the term hypothesis, but, unlike the latter, it is based on quantitative indicators and has greater reliability. A common feature of these two concepts is that they explore an object or process that does not yet exist.

Applied forecasting techniques were actively developed in the 70s. XX century, and the boom of their use abroad continues to this day. This is mainly due to a new direction in research - global issues, the main task of which is to solve the world's resource, demographic and environmental problems.

Forecasting is a science that has a close relationship with statistics and its analytical methods. In carrying out the analysis, the achievements of mathematics, natural and other sciences are widely used.

Forecasting and planning complement each other in various variations. In most cases, a forecast is developed before a plan is created. He can also follow the plan - to determine the possible consequences. In large-scale studies (at the state or regional level), the forecast can act as the plan itself.

Goals

The main task of forecasting is to identify effective ways to manage socio-economic processes in society or the economic and technical development of an enterprise.

The methodological bases for achieving these goals are as follows:

analysis of trends in the development of the economy and technology;
anticipation of various options;
comparison of existing trends and goals;
assessment of the possible consequences of the adopted economic decisions.

Forecast methods

Forecasting is carried out according to a certain methodology, which is understood as a system of indicators and approaches to the object under study, the logic of research. Other parameters also depend on which method is chosen - how many forecasting stages will be carried out and what their content will be.

Among the huge number of forecasting methods, the following main groups can be distinguished:

1. Individual expert assessments:

Interview - information is obtained during the conversation (formalized and non-formalized, preparatory and independent, directed and non-directed).
Questionnaire survey (individual, group, mass, full-time and correspondence questioning).
Development of a predictive scenario (used in the areas of management activities).
Analytical method - building a tree of goals (for assessing hierarchical or structural processes).

2. Collective based on obtaining an agreed opinion in a group of experts:

meetings;
"round tables";
"Delphi";
"brainstorm";
court method.

3. Formalized methods based on the use of mathematical evaluation methods:

extrapolation;
math modeling;
morphological method and others.

4. Complex techniques that combine several of the above:

"double tree" (used for basic research and R&D);
predictive graph;
"Pattern" and others.

A correctly chosen forecasting method significantly affects its errors. For example, strategic planning does not use the method of extrapolation (foresight beyond experimental data or the distribution of properties from one subject area to another).

Stages

The sequence of forecasting stages in the general case is the work carried out according to the following scheme:

Training.
Analysis of internal and external conditions in retrospect.
Development of options for the development of events along an alternative path.
Expertise.
Selection of a suitable model.
Her assessment.
Analysis of the quality of the expertise (a priori and a posteriori).
Implementation of predictive developments, their control and adjustment (if necessary).

Below is a description of the main stages of forecasting and their characteristics.

Preparatory stage

At the first stage, the following questions are solved:

Pre-forecast orientation (formulation of the object of study, statement of the problem, determination of goals and objectives, primary modeling, formulation of working hypotheses).
Information and organizational preparation.
Formulation of the assignment for the forecast.
Preparation of computer support.

At the staging stage of forecasting, the performers who must carry out the forecast are also determined. This group may consist of competent employees responsible for organizational work and information support, and also includes an expert commission.

The following points are documented:

prediction decision;
the composition of the working commissions;
work schedule;
analytical review on the problem under study;
contracts or other agreements with specialists involved in forecasting.

Analysis

At the second, analytical stage of forecasting, the following types of work are carried out:

research of information about the object in retrospect;
separation of qualitative and quantitative indicators;
analysis of internal conditions (in relation to an enterprise, this can be: its organizational structure, technologies, personnel, production culture and other qualitative parameters);
study and assessment of external conditions (interaction with business partners, suppliers, competitors and consumers, the general state of the economy and society).

In the process of analysis, the current state of the object is diagnosed and the trends of its further development are determined, the main problems and contradictions are identified.

Alternatives

The stage of identifying other, most probable options for the development of an object is one of the key stages of forecasting. The accuracy of the forecast and, accordingly, the effectiveness of decisions made on its basis depend on the correctness of their determination.

At this stage, the following works are performed:

development of a list of alternative development options;
exclusion of those processes that in a given period have a probability of implementation below the threshold value;
detailed study of each additional option.

Expertise

Based on the available information and previous analysis, an expert study of an object, process or situation is carried out. The result of this forecasting stage is a reasonable conclusion and determination of scenarios according to which development will be most likely.

Examination can be carried out in various ways:

interviewing;
questioning;
one-time or multi-round survey of experts;
anonymous or open exchange of information and other means.

Model selection

A forecasting model is a simplified description of an object or process under study, which allows you to obtain the necessary information about its future state, directions for achieving such a state, and about the interconnections of individual elements of the system. It is chosen based on the research method.

In economics, there are several types of such models:

functional, describing the operation of the main components;
models characterized by methods of economic physics (determination of mathematical relationships between various variables of the production process);
expert (special formulas for processing expert assessments);
economic, based on determining the dependencies between the economic indicators of the predicted system;
procedural (describing managerial interactions and their order).

There are also other classifications of models:

According to the aspects reflected in them - industrial and social.
Models designed to describe income, consumption, demographic processes.
Economic models of various levels (long-term for forecasting economic development, intersectoral, sectoral, production).

In predictive models, the following forms of describing phenomena are distinguished:

text;
graphical (extrapolation methods);
network (graphs);
construction of block diagrams;
matrix (tables);
analytical (formulas).

The model is formed using the following methods:

phenomenological (direct study and observation of occurring phenomena);
deductive (selection of details from the general model);
inductive (generalization from particular phenomena).

After selecting the model, a forecast is made for certain periods. The results obtained are compared with currently known information.

Quality control

The stage of verification of the forecast, or verification of its reliability, is carried out on the basis of previous experience (a posteriori) or independently of it (a priori). Quality assessment is done using the following criteria: accuracy (scatter of predictive trajectories), reliability (probability of the selected option), reliability (measure of process uncertainty). To assess the deviation of forecast criteria from their actual values, such a concept as forecast errors is used.

In the process of controlling, the results are also compared with other models, and recommendations are developed for managing an object or process, if such an impact can have an impact on the development of events.

There are 2 methods for quality assessment:

Differential, in which clear criteria are used (defining the clarity of setting a forecast task, the timeliness of stage-by-stage work, the professional level of performers, the reliability of information sources).
Integral (generalized estimate).

Main Factors

The following main factors influence the accuracy of the forecast:

competence of the expert group;
the quality of the prepared information;
accuracy of measurement of economic data;
the level of methods and procedures used in forecasting;
correct choice of model;
consistency of methodological approaches between different specialists.

Often large errors also arise due to the fact that the features of the conditions under which this model is used are not taken into account.

Implementation

The last stage of forecasting is the implementation of the forecast and monitoring the progress of its implementation. If critical deviations are identified that can significantly affect the further development of events, the forecast is corrected.

The level of adoption of corrective decisions may be different. If they are insignificant, then the adjustment is carried out by the analytical group, which is responsible for developing the forecast. In some cases, experts are involved in this work.

The practice of political forecasting varied and different:

1. For goals and directions.

2. Over time.

3.Behind the grounds.

4. For tools. According to the main goals of political activity, forecasts

may be aimed at:

Identification of the main trends in international relations;

Knowledge of the mechanism of emergence and evolution of possible international conflicts;

Forecast of the result of the election campaign;

Establishing the dynamics of the influence of the main political forces in a particular country;

Determining the degree of popularity of political leaders and their influence on the change in the political situation in a particular country;

Analysis of the possible consequences of one or another political decision.

The basis of political forecasting strong different.

Different types of statistical information;

Sociological research data;

Interrogation of public thought;

Mass media materials;

intelligence data;

Historical, psychological, economic, ethnographic research;

Knowledge of the factors that influence the course of political processes.

By timing, forecasts are:

1. Short-term - up to 5 years.

2. Medium-term - from 5 to 15 years.

3. Long-term - up to 30 years.

Naturally, with an increase in the period, the degree of reliability of the occurrence of events or processes that are assumed decreases. Toolkit of political forecasting includes:

Different types of surveys;

Qualitative and quantitative methods for evaluating public thought survey data;

For processing large data arrays, the following is used:

Modern computer technology;

A special mathematical apparatus, the effectiveness of which is becoming more and more obvious.

Making a political forecast

It is a system of phased actions, among which are:

Structural analysis of the relevant political system, identification of its components, determination of the nature of the links, the relationship between them;

Selection of the main factors, quantitative expression, comparison of their significance;

Identification of the main trends aimed at the development of processes operating in the system;

Extrapolation (imaginary continuation) of these processes, synthesis of these trajectories in their interaction;

Compilation of a comprehensive forecast for the development of the political system.

Forecasting methods in politics

Traditionally widely used in political forecasting:

1. extrapolation method(an imaginary continuation into the future of certain existing political processes).

The use of this method is based on the fact that most political phenomena are actually processes, that is, phenomena that last in time and have their own trajectory of movement, which can be established by knowing the chain of past and present events.

2. analogy method. It is actively used in political forecasting based on similarity of conditions which caused this or that event in the past, allows us to draw a conclusion about the possibility of an event in the future.

The analogy method can be used in forecasting just right for predicting events or individual phenomena.

3. Scenario method provides a description of possible future events in a region or around the world. It is used, first of all, to describe the picture of the development of conflict situations, in the preparation of political decisions designed for a more or less long term.

Drawing up scenarios is always associated with an assessment of events and trends in their deployment, and the assessment expresses a subjective attitude towards the phenomenon on the part of the one who does it. Therefore, there may be several scenarios that relate to the prediction of the same phenomenon. The choice of one or another scenario requires the inclusion of an expert assessment in the forecasting activity, which is obtained by polling scientists.

4.Modeling method turns out to be extremely useful in political analysis and forecasting.

Political forecasting- the process of developing a scientifically based judgment about a possible scenario for the development of political events in the future, alternative ways and terms for its implementation, as well as identifying specific recommendations for the use of practical measures in real-life conditions.

Areas of use:

1.Economic and political.

2. Socio-political.

3.State-legal.

4. Political and ideological.

5. Military-political.

6. Foreign policy.

7. Internal political.

Basic principles:

1. Consistency.

2. Consistency.

3. Continuity.

4. Credibility.

5.Optimality

6. Alternative.

7. Profitability.

8. Analogy.

Forecasts are divided into:

2.Regulatory.

Beyond the warning period:

Operative - up to 1 month.

Short term - from 1 month to 1 year.

Medium-term - from 1 to 5 years.

Long-term - from 5 to 15 years.

Extra-long-term - for a period of more than 15 years.

For spheres:

1. Internal political.

2. Foreign policy.

The main stages of political forecasting:

1. Forward-looking orientation.

2. Building a basic model.

3. Collection of forecast background data.

5. Evaluation of the reliability and accuracy of the forecast.

6. Building a search model.

The main methods of political forecasting:

1. Behind the sign of the information base:

factual;

expert;

combined.

2. According to the principle of information processing:

statistical;

analogies;

direct expert assessments;

expert assessments with feedback;

leading

3. Behind the sign of the implementation apparatus:

Extrapolation;

Interpolation;

Factor analysis;

Correlation analysis;

Mathematical analogies;

Historical analogies;

Expert questioning;

Expert analysis.

Political situation

The totality and result of factors and conditions that express the correlation and alignment of socio-political forces, as well as the state of political relations, directly related to the achievement of political goals, the satisfaction of the needs of political subjects.

Structure:

The subjects of the political situation, their alignment and balance of power;

Real life circumstances, specific political processes, phenomena and development trends;

Political interests and whole.

Characteristics:

Complexity;

scale;

Dynamism;

Variety of trends;

A large number of forms of manifestation.

Main types:

cooperative;

confrontational;

Cooperative-confrontational (mixed).

Methodology for analyzing the internal political situation:

Definition of subjects of political relations;

analysis of the qualitative and quantitative composition of policy subjects

Analysis of the goals and interests of policy subjects;

Analysis of real processes and phenomena in various spheres of public life, identification of trends in their development;

Analysis of the state of the economy;

Analysis of the state of social-class and national relations;

Analysis of public consciousness, cultural life;

Analysis of the criminal situation in the country;

Analysis of the internal military-political situation;

Analysis of the legitimacy of political power;

Assessment of the political situation in the country;

Forecast of the development of the political situation.

Methodology for analyzing the international (regional) political situation:

Determining the poles of power in the world (region);

Determination of centers of power at the poles;

Analysis and evaluation of military potentials of centers of power;

Analysis and assessment of the internal political situation in the centers of power;

Assessment of the international (regional) political situation;

Development of a forecast for the development of the international (regional) political situation.

The basic processes that ensured the globalization of the 21st century are:

1.Commercialization - the consistent formation of global markets for goods, services, work, capital.

2. Bureaucratization - the evolution of bureaucracies: from agrarian empires to absolute monarchies, from absolute monarchies to constitutional monarchies; republican structure and forms of democratic control over the bureaucracy.

3. Collectivization - different forms of social mobilization that use the mechanisms of social regulation and self-regulation.

Democratization - different forms of social mobilization that use the mechanisms of social regulation and self-regulation

5. Rationalization - the emergence of experimental science of the New Age, its paradigmization (Newtonian mechanics), the emergence of scientific technologies, social design and social sciences, applied scientific ^-scientific-scientific-natural-science, technical and social research, social engineering, scientific programming, system management, informatization. Scheme of political globalization:

State sovereignty - the absence of sovereign states; multiple centers of power at the global, local and intermediate

Problem solving – solving local problems in the context of a global community;

International organizations are powerful and dominant in relation to national organizations;

Political culture is a planetary overcoming of the dominance of state-centric values.

Organizations operate in conditions of uncertainty, however, despite this, managers must make those decisions that will affect the future activities of the company and make the most correct decisions. Since forecasting procedures, regardless of their type, whether they are qualitative or quantitative, are justified, this is precisely the reason to rely on data obtained from forecasts, and not on others obtained in an unreasonable way.

The ratio of the use of quantitative and qualitative methods in forecasting has changed significantly in recent years, due to the spread of computers, earlier, before the emergence of a serious mathematical apparatus for forecasting, the manager's assessment, often of an intuitive nature, was the only possible way to get any assumptions about the nature of observed events in the future. Thanks to the work related to the quantitative methods of forecasting by Makridakis, it became clear that the use of those forecasts that are based only on qualitative estimates cannot be as accurate as those that have a mathematical justification for the obtained values. Also, in the long term, the use of qualitative forecasting methods is significantly more expensive than the use of software based on quantitative approaches.

However, accuracy in forecasting cannot be achieved only by using appropriate programs. In such a situation, we will only receive information that, without proper knowledge and understanding, even if it is accurate, may be completely useless for the needs of the company, on the other hand, a manager who ignores all possible quantitative analysis techniques. These examples serve to show that the use of only one approach can be an overly categorical move by a manager and ultimately lead to negative consequences for the entire organization.

Software and computers have become a completely integral part of any organization, regardless of its size or direction, and whether it is private or public, because every company needs a planning procedure. Moreover, it is important to understand that forecasts are used by the company in almost all its strategically important departments, such as: financial, marketing, recruiting, logistics and many others to make informed decisions in the face of uncertainty.

There are various classifications according to the types of forecasts that can be considered depending on the time perspective of forecasting, and according to their position they occupy in the macro or micro continuum, also, as already mentioned, a division can be made by classifying forecasts as quantitative or qualitative. types of forecasts, depending on what goals are set for a particular department, or a specific manager, different approaches to forecasting will be used. Long-term forecasting is typical for the strategic department of an enterprise, usually forecasts of this type are the main need of senior management, which determines the prospects for the development of the organization, on the contrary, short-term forecasts should be used by operational departments that need data to make urgent decisions. The use of short-term forecasts is carried out at the level of middle and lower management, which are responsible for making decisions at a particular moment for the organization.

At the initial stage of choosing a method, it is required to determine the degree of detail, that is, to understand which of the macro or micro forecasts we need, the next step will be to determine the time perspective for which the forecast should be calculated, and the final step will be to determine the factor of using quantitative or qualitative estimates, or determining their ratio in making the final decision. The ability to analyze forecasting methods when choosing one of them for forecasting purposes should allow the manager to simplify the decision-making procedure. The fundamental requirements will not be the possible complexity of the mathematical apparatus, but the exact and understandable result of the forecast, which can be interpreted for the manager to make decisions, it is also important to note that in addition to the above, forecasting is used as an opportunity to indirectly influence profitability, so the procedure for carrying out cost-effective.

The forecasting process is an extrapolation of previous observations to get some idea of what the situation will look like in the future. Understanding this fact leads to the fact that the forecasting apparatus analyzes and processes the data that have occurred and are indistinguishable from the conditions of the future, but this is not always true, since the calculation of the performance indicators of workers based only on their assessments when applying for a position will not be accurate, since it is possible to change these indicators, therefore, the forecasting process can be divided into several components:

- Data collection
- Data reduction or compaction
- Model building and evaluation
- Extrapolation of the selected model
- Evaluation of the received forecast

The first step involves obtaining the correct data, as well as conducting the necessary validation and validation of the data obtained. This stage is the most important for the entire subsequent forecasting procedure, since without proper data validation, we can make a forecast for incorrect data, respectively, resulting in a result that is inconsistent with real indicators.

The second stage may be optional, but very often it is not possible to make a correct forecast without it. There may be situations when, at the second stage, it becomes clear to a specialist in making forecasts that the initial data obtained for making a forecast are collected in insufficient quantities or in excess. Both options do not allow to build an accurate forecast, if in the case of an insufficient amount of data this seems obvious, then in the second case data may have been collected that do not relate to the subject of forecasting under study, thereby only increasing the number of forecast errors and reducing its accuracy. Also at this stage, the data is checked for relevance to the context, because if we are going to build a forecast for sales of electric cars, then it is advisable to take data for the last 5 years, and not for 50, in the second case, we will get an inaccurate forecast due to inconsistency with the context of the problem under consideration .

The third stage can be described as the construction of a forecast model and its evaluation, the essence of this stage is the choice of a specific forecasting model that will extrapolate previous observations using a given algorithm. At this stage, the manager should be aware that the simpler the presented forecasting model, the easier it will be for understanding its results, which is the most important factor in decision making by top management. This means that simpler models present understandable results that are heavily used in decision making.

The fourth stage is to transfer the selected forecasting model to future periods, which implies obtaining specific forecast values, and at this stage, forecast modeling is performed for already observed data to assess the accuracy of the forecast, thus forecast errors will be obtained. However, the direct analysis of the obtained deviations in the course of the forecasting procedure for events that have already taken place will be considered in the fifth stage.

The fifth stage is the final stage. At this stage, the obtained forecast values are evaluated, the forecast errors are evaluated. To estimate the forecast error, various techniques are used, which involve the addition of the absolute values of the forecast, which, depending on the estimation technique, can remain both the sum of forecast deviations and divided by the number of observed errors, in order to find the average forecast error. There are also methods that rely on the sum of squared errors.

The main part of forecasting is based on fundamental statistical concepts, and they will be considered in this part of the chapter. Basically, statistical indicators are used to give a more detailed idea of the structure of data in the general population. The purpose of these procedures in statistics is to be able to describe a large amount of data using some of the most important, key values. The vast majority of statistics describe an array by averaging the values of observations. The most common procedure is to find the sample mean, which is determined by adding all available observations divided by the number of observations:

Along with the frequent use of the sample mean, in the process of determining the tendency of data to group around the mean, the standard deviation indicator is used:

In this equation, we have the sum of the squared differences between the observations and their mean .

The mean and standard deviation are considered to be one of the most important characteristics when describing a population data set. Their main advantage is that they are quite simple to calculate and provide meaningful characteristics of observational data. Also, along with using the standard deviation and finding the sample mean, a median search procedure is used to determine the central value from the data under consideration. The median is the value that divides the sample into two parts, one less than the other, and the other greater than the median. The range is used to roughly estimate the sample variance, to calculate the range it is required to subtract the smallest value from the largest value in the sample.

The correlation coefficient can be used to examine the presence of a linear relationship in a data set between two quantities, as well as to determine the strength of this relationship. This coefficient is measured from -1 to 1. The minimum value of the correlation coefficient equal to -1 shows that the considered values have a perfect negative relationship, in this case, an increase in one will lead to a decrease in the other, on the other hand, a coefficient equal to +1 will indicate the presence of a perfect positive relationship between two values. If the correlation coefficient is 0, then there is no linear dependence. The correlation coefficient can be found by the formula:

When using the correlation coefficient, several critical points should be taken into account, the first thing to pay attention to is that the correlation coefficient shows data on the presence of a relationship between two quantities, however, it cannot be used as a means in determining the causal relationship between factors, such Thus, it would be incorrect to say that if there is a correlation between the values, then this means the influence of one factor on the other, since a change in two values \u200b\u200bcan be caused by a change in a third factor that is not included in the analysis of the correlation coefficient. In this case, the decision on the presence of a causal relationship between the values is made by the expert, since in real life the price of products in St. another, in this example, prices will depend on the economic situation in the country.

Secondly, the correlation coefficient is aimed at determining the presence of a linear relationship, while if the calculation of the coefficient shows that the linear relationship is 0 or is within a low correlation, then it will be wrong to assume that there is absolutely no relationship between the variables, since the quantities under consideration , may be subject to non-linear dependence .

The stage representing the collection of data, checking them for reliability, is one of the most difficult of all forecasting stages, because if an error is made at this stage, it will be extremely difficult to notice its presence in subsequent calculations, so incorrect input data is given at the output incorrect forecast values that are not relevant to the forecast value. The accuracy of the forecast is largely determined by the accuracy of the data that will be used in building the forecasting model. Due to the great development of the Internet, almost all the necessary indicators for making macro forecasts for states have appeared in the public domain, there is also enough information to make forecasts as part of the development of the organization, however, the presence of a large amount of information in the public domain does not always favorably affect the accuracy of the forecast, since the factors that are included in the forecasting model should be directly related to the object under study. In order to assess whether the data you are looking for will be useful in finding a solution for a particular problem, you can use the check according to the following four criteria:

a) Accuracy and reliability of the source data.

Compliance with this criterion implies the use of data that are obtained from reliable sources of information, and also requires that the data correspond to the context of the object under study.

b) Significance of the data.

The data will reflect the analyzed circumstances.

c) Data consistency.

In this case, it means that in the event of a change in the data for the object for which they were collected, appropriate adjustments must be made to maintain the consistency of the new data with the historical structure.

d) Timing.

This criterion allows you to check the data for their chronological correspondence, so data that meets this criterion is the most preferable for making a forecast, it should also be noted here that there may be too little data, which means that there is not enough historical background, but it is also important to understand that using too much data accumulated over time can damage the accuracy of the forecast due to possible low relevance in the context of the predicted object.

Two categories of data can be considered the main ones in making forecasts. The first ones are a set of data that were collected at a particular point in time, it can be data for various periods of time: hours, weeks, years, decades, and so on. The second category of data shows data that has been collected over time. The first type of data is called cross-sectional, their main task is to find out the relationships within the population under study, in order to extrapolate the results obtained to the general population. Data that has been collected over time is called a time series, usually for this data there are the same intervals in time at which data about these objects are collected.

A quantitative forecasting model is used in time series forecasting, the following indicators are used to indicate the value at a particular point in time, the forecast value and the forecast error:

When estimating the forecast error, several methods are used, most of which consist in averaging some error functions and actual values. To calculate the forecast error, the difference between the actual value and the forecast value obtained for a given point in time is used.

The most common method for calculating the forecast error is to add the absolute values of the forecast error and divide by the number of observations. This method is called Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD). The use of this technique for estimating the forecast error is possible if the specialist who measures the forecast error tries to obtain in the same units as the original series. The error of the mean absolute deviation is measured by the formula:

The next way to estimate the prediction error is the Mean Squared Error (MSE), which consists in squaring each prediction error and then summing all the squared errors, the sum of which is divided by the number of observations. This technique, due to its peculiarity of squaring errors, is necessary in order to draw the attention of a specialist to large errors made by the model in forecasting. In this case, when comparing two methods, one of which gives average errors, and the other gives small, but significant deviations peak, the first method may be preferable. The root-mean-square forecast error is calculated by the formula:

However, the calculation of the absolute values of errors is not always preferable, since the calculation of the average absolute error in percent allows us to estimate the magnitude of the discrepancy between the predicted value and the actual data as a percentage. The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is calculated by calculating the absolute value of the error at each particular moment and dividing by the actual value observed in a given period of time, the sum of these actions for all forecast positions is summed up and divided by the number of forecast observations. A significant advantage of this approach is that if the original series contains large values, then in the end we will get a forecast estimate in percent, the value of which will not exceed three digits. The calculation of this indicator of forecast error assessment, the average absolute percentage error is made according to the formula:

The Mean Percentage Error (MPE) method helps to determine whether there is a bias in the forecast values, whether the resulting forecast is constantly underestimated or overestimated. The calculation of the average percentage error occurs by identifying the forecast error at each point in time, followed by dividing the found error by the actual value characterizing the given period, then summing the results of previous actions and dividing by the number of observations allows us to estimate the forecast error of the average percentage error methods. To analyze this indicator, it is necessary to understand that a too large positive percentage value obtained means that the method is constantly underestimating, that is, the forecast values are less than the actual ones, if the forecast value is large negative, this means that the forecasting method under consideration, for which the evaluation of forecast errors is carried out sequentially re-evaluating. The formula that describes the process of finding the average percentage error is:

The decision to choose one or another forecasting method is often based on the estimation of forecast errors, which are obtained when calculating such indicators as MAD, MSE, MAPE, MPE, the correctly chosen method will give the smallest deviation from the actual values, that is, it will be the most accurate in predicting future indicators.