Volume of retail space per 1000 inhabitants. Availability of retail space. Calculation of the minimum provision of the population with the area of ​​local shopping facilities

24.08.2017

Company expertsRRG calculated the future supply of retail space in Moscow for 2019. Also, during the analysis, the most promising territories for the development of shopping centers were identified, and the volume of areas that can be effectively built in each of the megaclusters was calculated.

Main conclusions of the study:

The provision of retail space in the Central Megacluster by 2019 will be about 765 sq. m. m. per 1 thousand people. The supply of retail to clusters within the boundaries of the Central Megacluster is the highest: Lubyanka - 1230 sq. m, Arbat – 1117 sq. m, Moscow City – 1101 sq. m, Tverskoy – 825 sq. m, Tagansky – 820 sq. m. But taking into account the specifics of the location, powerful “daytime” traffic, and the demand for retail in the central part of the city, it is possible to increase the supply in the megacluster to 1,500 sq. m. m per thousand inhabitants. The central megacluster should be considered separately from other megaclusters, since it is characterized by a very high concentration of the “daytime” population, most of them office employees and tourist traffic.

In second place after the Central megacluster comes Kutuzovsky with an indicator of 661 sq. m. The level of its provision will increase due to the opening of the Vegas Kuntsevo shopping center of the Crocus Group company. Next in the ranking are the Volokolamsk, Leningrad and Warsaw megaclusters. Relatively low retail saturation will be recorded in such megaclusters as Shosse Entuziastov, Shchelkovsky, Volgogradsky, Dmitrovsky, Leninsky.

If we predict the provision of megaclusters with the largest super-regional format (shopping centers with a GLA of 80 thousand sq. m), then Zelenogradsky will be in the top leaders - 300 sq. m. m per 1 thousand people, Leningradsky - 294 sq. m, Volokolamsky - 208.5 sq. m, Yaroslavsky - 207.5 sq. m, Warsaw megaclusters – 164.5 sq. m.

If we evaluate the future retail supply of clusters (with the exception of those included in the Central megacluster), then the maximum indicators will be demonstrated by the Yaroslavsky, Yuzhny Port, Matushkino-Savelki, Krylatskoye, Davydkovo, Mozhaisky, Kuntsevo, Khodynka, Matveevskoye, Fili clusters.

RRG specialists adopted the 600 sq. mark as a conditional saturation point for retail real estate for Moscow and nearby cities in the region. meters per 1 thousand people. In a number of clusters, especially in the East and South-East, South-West of the city, the retail supply is below the level of 300 sq. m. m per thousand people. Thus, retail saturation in Novogireevo is 167 sq. m per thousand people, Ivanovskoye cluster – 178 sq. m, Preobrazhensky – 179 sq. m.

The most promising for development are 4 megaclusters: in the Volgogradsky megacluster, about 360 thousand sq. m can be realized. m of retail real estate, in Shchelkovsky - 280 thousand, Leninsky - 255 thousand sq. m. m, Shosse_Entuziastov – 215 thousand sq. m. At the same time, developers have already begun to actively develop the Leninsky megacluster: the Horus group has begun construction of the Salaris shopping center with a rental area of ​​105 thousand sq. m. m, Crocus Group plans to build the Vegas shopping center on Kievskoe Highway.

Table 3. Prospective supply of retail space to the population of Moscow MEGACLUsters by 2019, sq. m. m per 1 thousand inhabitants

	Megacluster
	Central
	Kutuzovsky
	Volokolamsky
	Leningradsky
	Varshavsky
	Zelenogradsky
	Kashirsky	1 million 136 thousand
	Yaroslavsky
	Leninist	1 million 700 thousand
	Dmitrovsky	1 million 156 thousand
	Volgogradsky	1 million 409 thousand
	Shchelkovsky
	Highway Enthusiasts

Source: company dataRRG

Table 4. TOP-20 Prospective provision of retail space for the population of Moscow CLUSTERS by 2019, sq. m per 1 thousand inhabitants

	Cluster	Megacluster	Population by 2019	Availability of retail space, sq. m / 1 thousand inhabitants
	Yaroslavsky	Yaroslavsky
	South Port	Kashirsky
	Matushkino-Savelki	Zelenogradsky
	Krylatskoe	Kutuzovsky
	Davydkovo	Kutuzovsky
	Mozhaisky	Kutuzovsky
		Kutuzovsky
		Leningradsky
	Matveevskoe	Kutuzovsky
		Kutuzovsky
		Volokolamsky
	Tushino Yuzhnoye	Volokolamsky
	Academic	Leninist
	Maryina Roshcha	Dmitrovsky
	Troparevo	Leninist
	Northern Chertanovo	Varshavsky
	Sokolniki	Shchelkovsky
		Volokolamsky
	Teply Stan	Leninist
		Leningradsky

Source: company dataRRG

Table 5. Top 20: Moscow Clusters Promising for Retail Real Estate Development

	Cluster	Megacluster	Population by 2019	Availability of retail space, sq. m / 1 thousand inhabitants
	Novogireevo	Highway Enthusiasts
	Ivanovskoe	Highway Enthusiasts
	Preobrazhensky	Shchelkovsky
	Printers	Volgogradsky
	Lyubertsy Fields	Volgogradsky
	Novo-Peredelkino	Leninist
	Izmailovsky	Shchelkovsky
		Zelenogradsky
	Golyanovo	Shchelkovsky
	Kuzminki	Volgogradsky
		Volgogradsky
	Northern Veshnyaki	Highway Enthusiasts
		Volgogradsky
	Western Maryino	Volgogradsky
	Alekseevsky	Yaroslavsky
	Western Biryulyovo	Varshavsky
	Zhulebino	Volgogradsky
	Tsaritsyno	Kashirsky
	Volzhsky	Volgogradsky
	Medvedkovo	Yaroslavsky

Rationale for calculating standards for the provision of population with area of ​​retail facilities

When developing a methodology for calculating the standards for providing the population with retail space, the current regulatory legal framework in Russia and abroad was studied, an analysis of the trade infrastructure of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation was carried out, and the influence of economic, demographic and social factors on the population's need for retail space.

Foreign experience in planning the development of retail trade is based on certain standards. In France, the design of new residential buildings involves the construction of 2 square meters. m of shop space per apartment. In the UK, regulations determine the required number of shops per 1000 inhabitants and the number of people per store. In the USA, standards determine the number of retail establishments per 1000 residents or the required length of street frontage allocated for shops, calculated in linear meters per conditional population.

In Hungary, turnover per square meter is taken as the calculation indicator. m of retail space, which is extrapolated for a period of 3-5 years. In the Czech Republic, the calculation is based on determining the volume of retail turnover through long-term forecasting of the need for retail space and the number of sales employees. In Poland, when planning a retail network, a productivity indicator is used, expressed in the amount of turnover realized per 1 square. m of retail space. In Romania, a similar methodology for planning the need for retail space is used. Additionally, to check the need, a control calculation is made - they determine the standard retail space per 1000 residents for the future for a given city by dividing the entire retail space by the population of the city in the future.

In the Republic of Ukraine, standards are expressed by the minimum size of retail space per 1000 people. It is 423 sq. m for all types of retail trade enterprises, including 169 sq. m for everyday goods and 254 sq. m - for non-food products. In Belarus, standards for providing the population with retail space of 260 square meters have been approved. m per 1000 inhabitants in regional centers, in rural areas - 220 sq. m.

The all-Union standard for the provision of retail space per 1,000 inhabitants, previously in force in the USSR, was 230 square meters. m (90 sq. m for food and 140 sq. m for non-food products). However, this figure is significantly lower than the average European and North American level (650 sq. m) and the US level (1200 sq. m).

One of the latest documents adopted in the USSR is Construction Norms and Rules (SNiP) 2.07.01-89 “Urban Planning. Planning and development of urban and rural settlements”, approved by Decree of the USSR State Construction Committee dated January 1, 2001 No. 78. It provides for the norms for the retail space of stores in urban settlements - 280 square meters. m per 1000 people (including food - 100 sq. m, non-food - 180 sq. m), in rural settlements - 300 sq. m. m (including food – 100 sq. m, non-food – 200 sq. m)

The USSR standards developed during the period of centralized economic management cannot meet the changed socio-economic conditions of life of the population of modern Russia. USSR standards were established based on the economic capabilities of the country at a particular stage, and not on the real need to provide the population with a retail trading network.

In order to develop a methodology for calculating standards for the provision of population with the area of ​​retail facilities, the Russian State University of Trade and Economics conducted a study in the cities of Kemerovo, Ivanovo, Orenburg, Chelyabinsk, Samara, South Sakhalinsk. These settlements were selected to analyze the standards for the maximum permissible time that buyers agree to spend on purchasing various categories of goods, to identify regional specifics and the degree of satisfaction of residents of these cities with the provision of retail space.

The total sample size was four thousand people; the questionnaire survey involved citizens with different levels of income in the age range from 18 to 70 years.

The sociological survey questionnaire made it possible to identify the financial situation of the respondents; average purchase frequency; the acceptable amount of time that the respondent agrees to spend on purchasing goods; identifying the level of aspirations during the purchase process; purchasing activity of the population in the process of purchasing durable goods, as well as preference for places of their sale.

As part of the study, the average frequency of purchases of the proposed categories of food products was determined. When purchasing food products, pedestrian accessibility of the store is important for the population - over 12% of respondents prefer to buy without spending a long time searching, choosing and queuing in the store. For example, respondents are willing to spend up to 5 minutes choosing bread and bakery products, and 15 minutes or longer choosing meat and meat products.

After studying economic, socio-demographic, organizational, administrative and other factors, a quantitative and qualitative assessment of the population’s needs for retail space was made and an empirical formula was derived for calculating the standard of provision of the population with retail space, which depends on the average number of visits to places of sale of a certain product group in day, the norm of the sales area required to serve one customer, as well as the maximum allowable time that the buyer agrees to spend on purchasing a certain product:

		standard for the provision of retail space (sq. m per 1000 people);
		average number of visits to points of sale of the i-product group per day (times);
		the norm of the sales floor area required to serve one customer (for comfortable customer service, the area required for the free movement of the trolley around the sales floor and the installation of sales equipment is taken into account - 16 sq. m);
		the maximum allowable time that the buyer agrees to spend on purchasing an i-group product (hour);
		number of product groups under consideration (i=1,2,….N).

In the course of calculating the basic indicators, an analysis of 23 product groups was carried out. Calculations of the general standard Ro and composite standards Roprod And Ronon-food are shown in Table 1.

Table 1. Calculation of the general standard for the provision of area of ​​retail facilities for the Russian Federation and its component values ​​for food and non-food products

Name of product groups	The maximum allowable time that the buyer agrees to spend on purchasing the goods i-groups (h)	Average number of visits to points of sale i-product group per day (times)	Standard requirements for retail space for i-product group (sq. m per 1000 people)
Bread and bakery products
Groceries
Confectionery
Meat and meat products
Fish and fish products
Milk and dairy products
Gastronomic goods
Wine and vodka products, soft drinks, beer and ice cream
Vegetables and fruits
Other food products
Total for food products:			795,47
Household goods and household chemicals
Haberdashery and perfumery
Household appliances
Computer equipment, televisions and radio products
Stationery and toys
Printed products
	0,001
Other non-food products
Total for non-food products:			542,51
Total:

The data for calculating the minimum standards for the need for retail space are adjusted to the maximum possible purchase complexity coefficient, which is the average number of items purchased during one store visit.

In food trade, the maximum possible value of the coefficient is taken to be 5.0, in non-food trade - 1.5. Taking into account these amendments, comfortable standards for the provision of population with the area of ​​retail facilities, averaged for the Russian Federation, have the following values:

Roprod= 795.47/5 = 159 sq. m per 1000 people;

Ronon-food=542.51/1.5 = 362 sq. m per 1000 people.

General standard:

Ro= Roprod+ Ronon-food= 521 sq. m per 1000 people.

According to experts, there are currently approximately 500 square meters of retail space per thousand Russians, while the norm is 1,200 square meters - this is the lowest figure in Europe after Ukraine. 5

There are 21,200 retail outlets in the ******* region, of which 17,056 are stationary. The structure of the stationary network includes 157 shopping centers and complexes, 16,899 stores. The total retail area is 2,695.2 thousand square meters. m. The volume of retail space increased by 187.7 thousand sq. m. m.

The provision of retail space in 2009 in the ******* region increased from 570 to 613 sq. m. m per 1 thousand inhabitants.

In the regional center, this figure is very close to the figure of 900–990 square meters of retail space per thousand people.

Thus, the indicator provision of regional cities with retail space significantly lower than in the regional center and is 469 meters per thousand people.

******* the region lags behind neighboring regions in the availability of high-quality retail space; in 2007, the level of provision of the population with retail space of all categories in the city of Perm was 452.8 sq.m. per 1000 inhabitants. This is higher than the social norm of 260 sq.m. per 1000 inhabitants, but lower than in neighboring regions and significantly lower than European standards - 1000 sq.m. per 1000 inhabitants.

In 2008, the regional government launched the project “Trading Platforms. Development of a logistics cluster and high-quality retail space in the ******* region.” According to the authorities, it should provide the region with high-quality retail space. They, in turn, will create all the conditions to satisfy the consumer demand of residents and guests of the ****** region, develop the retail trade and service sector markets, create conditions for the formation of a competitive environment, and increase investment in trade and related industries. This project also helps to bring the trade and logistics infrastructure of the region closer to the European level.

1. State regulation of the industry

During the crisis, the participation of the Government of the Russian Federation, including representatives of the Ministry of Industry and Trade of Russia, in the dialogue between trading enterprises and the banking sector helped stabilize the situation in the trading industry.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation, as a relevant department, has taken a comprehensive approach to the development of the trade industry in Russia.

In April 2009, the Government of the Russian Federation approved a program of measures for the development of trade prepared by the Ministry of Industry and Trade of Russia and other interested departments, the main activities of which were the adoption of the law “On the fundamentals of state regulation of trade activities in the Russian Federation” and the development of a Strategy for the development of trade in the Russian Federation for 2010– 2015

Designed to ensure legal regulation of the industry, the law “On the Fundamentals of State Regulation of Trade Activities in the Russian Federation” affects seven main areas:

ensuring a single economic space throughout the country;

division of powers between government bodies;

elimination of administrative barriers to trade;

correction of increasingly complex relationships between domestic food producers and trade organizations in order to form fair trade practices that comply with market conditions;

development of modern trade infrastructure in the Russian Federation;

small business support;

promoting the development of commodity production.

One of the main directions of development of the industry is to expand the variety of forms and formats of trading activities, which will maintain a high level of competition and will help ensure the geographical and price accessibility of goods for the population.

The Trade Law was approved on December 25 by the Federation Council. The document comes into force on February 1, 2010.

The law introduces restrictions on deferred payments to suppliers depending on the category of products: 10 days for products with a ten-day shelf life, 30 days for products with a 30-day shelf life, and 45 days for all other products, including alcoholic beverages produced in Russia.

According to the law, retailers are prohibited from including in the supply agreement any rewards from suppliers other than a volume discount of a maximum of 10% of the purchase price of the goods.

In addition, the law contains an antimonopoly amendment prohibiting the growth of chains in regions where they have occupied more than 25% of the retail market; it comes into force on February 1 in the constituent entities of the Federation, and on July 1 - in municipal areas and urban districts.

November 10, 2016

Malls.Ru publishes material dedicated to the most shopping-centered cities in Russia.

Over the past five years, the Russian market of quality shopping centers has expanded by more than 7 million square meters of space. More than a third of new construction in the last three years has been provided by the Moscow market. At the same time, the bulk of new supply in 2017-2018 will be generated by growing regional markets.

Many large shopping center projects will be launched in regional markets before the end of 2016, and record growth rates are forecast over the coming years, especially in cities with a population of 300 thousand or more that were not yet sufficiently saturated with quality facilities during the first wave development of regional centers by developers.

Today Moscow ranks fourth in terms of provision of high-quality retail space with an indicator of about 450 thousand sq.m per 1000 residents. This is the 10th indicator in Europe, although in terms of total supply the Russian capital has long surpassed all European megacities - London by 2.5 times, Berlin by 5 times, Barcelona by 7 times. Today, 11 Russian cities are in the top 20 most populated European cities with shopping centers (with a population of 1 million or more inhabitants).

At the same time, security in cities with a population of over a million is today estimated at an average of 366 sq.m per thousand inhabitants, and in cities with a population of less than a thousand people - at 261 sq.m per thousand inhabitants.

Where do retail real estate developers direct their main investments and which Russian cities remain the most in demand in recent years? Malls.Ru has identified the top 10 main directions.

Top 10 most popular cities for shopping center developers

The largest shopping center in southern Russia is often not included in Russian and European rankings as a city with a population of less than 1 million inhabitants. At the same time, Krasnodar has for more than 6 years held the title of the city with the most abundant shopping centers, with an indicator of more than 950 sq.m per thousand inhabitants - this is significantly higher than in Warsaw, the leader among European million-population cities. The selection of shopping centers in Krasnodar also remains one of the best in Russia - SBS Megamall, OZ Mall, Red Square, Gallery Krasnodar. The share of retail trade in the Krasnodar Territory from the total turnover in the Southern Federal District is estimated at 46%. According to expert forecasts, Krasnodar will remain a leader in the level of saturation of retail space for at least another 5-7 years.

Samara

Over the past few years, thanks to new discoveries, Samara has become one of the three most developed largest Russian cities (from 1 million inhabitants). And after the opening of the new shopping center Good "Ok (GLA = 115,000 sq.m.), which will become the largest in the Volga region, Samara will secure its status as the most abundant city in Russia with a population of one million people, with 560 sq.m. per 1000 inhabitants. Most of the total supply high-quality retail real estate in the city is under the control of the largest developer in the region. The portfolio of Victor and Co. includes the Moskovsky, Cosmoport, Megacity shopping centers and the new Good"Ok.

Ekaterinburg

The capital of the Urals and the fourth largest city in Russia, Ekaterinburg was particularly active in the development of shopping centers in 2009 and 2012. But in the last few years, the dynamics of development have slowed down, and the market itself has reached the stage of primary saturation. As a result, Ekaterinburg again lost the first place to Samara as the city with the most shopping centers. Neighborhood-type shopping centers have recently become popular among local developers. Analysts note good prospects for discounter shopping centers. In the first half of the year, the Academichesky shopping center opened in Yekaterinburg (GLA - 30,000 sq.m), two more openings are planned before the end of the year, and the fifth phase of the Greenwich shopping center will be launched at the beginning of 2017.

Nizhny Novgorod

Thanks to the active opening of new shopping centers in 2015, Nizhny Novgorod rose to the top three million-plus cities with retail space. The overall increase in supply for 2015-2016 in the city was 26.2%. To date, analysts have identified 29 quality properties with a total area of ​​1.19 million sq.m GBA and 785 thousand sq.m GLA. The largest objects are “Mega”, “Sky”, “Fantastika”, “Rio”. Nizhny Novgorod developers are developing retail complexes in the lifestyle and edutainment formats, relying on tenants of non-standard formats, which are poorly represented in the city.

Included in the top 20 largest cities in Russia, Saratov maintains the status of the second most saturated city with retail space with a population of less than 1 million inhabitants, although three years ago there was a shortage of quality shopping centers in the city. In the fall of 2015, the opening of the Tau Gallery shopping center with an area of ​​102,000 sq.m GBA took place. Another large shopping complex, Happy Mall, is preparing for the commissioning of the fourth phase and is designing the fifth, which will launch in 2018. The largest shopping centers in Saratov also include the My New shopping center and Triumph Mall.

Rostov-on-Don

The largest in the south of Russia and the ninth largest in the country by population, Rostov-on-Don became one of the points of attraction for federal networks and the construction of large shopping centers even at the first stage of the development of retail real estate in the regions - in 2004-2009. Today, more than 140 international brands operate in the city, and the total supply of quality retail space exceeds 400 thousand sq.m. The largest shopping centers in Rostov-on-Don are “Horizon”, “Mega”, “Golden Babylon”, “Rio” and “Megamag”, which is preparing to open its second phase. In recent years, against the background of market saturation, the interest of developers has begun to shift towards the region.

Saint Petersburg

In 2016, a large shopping center was opened in St. Petersburg for the first time in the last two years (Okhta Mall - 78,000 sq.m). Today, the city has 58 high-quality shopping centers with a total area of ​​2.25 million sq.m (capacity - 430 sq.m. per 1,000 residents). The market situation is stabilizing after several consecutive difficult quarters for shopping centers. Many retail chains consider St. Petersburg as a promising direction for development in 2017. However, there are no plans to open new shopping centers next year. “Zero” commissioning of new shopping centers in the city will be noted for the first time since 2003, since the emergence of the market for quality shopping complexes in St. Petersburg.

Moscow

2016 will be the best year in the last 10 years in terms of the number of new retail space commissioned in the Moscow region. Analysts expect a total addition of 638,000 sq.m of GLA. Since the beginning of the year, Oceania, Kosino Park, Horosho!, Riga Mall, Solntsevo Park and the 2nd stage of Metropolis have already opened. Another 6 shopping complexes will receive their first customers by the end of the year. In the total volume of all commissioned shopping centers in Russia, Moscow will account for 37% in 2016! High commissioning rates will continue until the end of 2018. Today, Moscow leads in terms of the total volume of retail space in Europe with an indicator of 5.5 million sq.m. Analysts note an improvement in consumer demand in Moscow. In the first half of 2016, shopping center attendance increased by 10%. New international brands are entering the market - since the beginning of the year, 26 new brands have been noted in Russia, 23 of which have chosen Moscow for their debut.

Voronezh

Being the largest city in the Black Earth Region, with a population of about 1 million inhabitants, Voronezh has long been one of the most attractive cities for the construction of large shopping centers. The bulk of construction in the city occurred in 2009-2010, when several regional shopping centers were opened at once - City Park Grad (GLA - 141,000 sq.m), Chizhova Gallery (47,000 sq.m), Maksimir (62,000 sq.m.), "Arena" (47,100 sq.m.). Today, regional properties account for 39% of the total supply of high-quality retail real estate in the city. As of 2016, 18 modern shopping centers with a total area of ​​about 820,000 sq.m GBA and 525,000 sq.m GLA were opened in Voronezh. New projects include the 3rd stage of the Chizhov Gallery and the Maisky shopping center. In addition, the construction of the Mega shopping center is expected in the Voronezh region.

Tyumen

The unofficial capital of the oil and gas region, Tyumen is traditionally one of the most popular shopping center cities with a population of more than 500 thousand residents. According to data for 2016, the total volume of supply is 365,000 sq.m., but by 2018 it is expected to grow to 480,000 sq.m. In particular, in December 2016, one of the largest shopping and entertainment centers in the city, Tyumen City Mall, will open (GLA - 53,000 sq.m). By the way, regional and super-regional facilities in Tyumen account for 55% of all shopping centers. The largest mall in the region is the Crystal shopping center. At the same time, experts note that the market has almost reached saturation. The volume of commissioning of new shopping centers in 2017 will be the minimum over the past five years.

When preparing the material, data from the following companies was used: Knight Frank, JLL, Magazin Magazin, ekbpromo, IDEM, Cushman & Wakefield.