Home › Disputes with neighbors › Production technologies have not changed for a long time. The company is changing working conditions. Which will confirm the presence of organizational or technological changes. Time factor in economics - what is it?

Production technologies have not changed for a long time. The company is changing working conditions. Which will confirm the presence of organizational or technological changes. Time factor in economics - what is it?

537 Alla Nurtynova

When an employer wants to change the terms of payment for an employee or his work schedule, he must first try to come to an agreement with him. If the employee agrees, the additional agreement can be signed in one day. There is no need to wait 2 months to start working under new conditions. But if you cannot convince the employee, then you cannot do without a lengthy procedure.

Article 74 of the Labor Code of the Russian Federation allows the employer to change the terms of the employment contract unilaterally.

But as practice shows, this rule is quite complicated in application. And this despite the fact that in Art. 74 of the Labor Code of the Russian Federation uses language that seems to give employers freedom of action. For example, as part of organizational changes, companies often adjust the staffing table in terms of reducing wages for a number of positions. But the courts consider this approach to be formal and satisfy the claims of employees who do not agree with the reduction in income. The company also faces a loss when the employee’s labor function is affected during the events. Changing it is guaranteed to lead to the cancellation of the employer’s decision. In addition, the application of Art. 74 of the Labor Code of the Russian Federation when canceling bonuses and other benefits due to an employee for harmful working conditions. They cannot be canceled, explaining this only by conducting a special assessment in the company. The abolition of benefits is allowed only if it is confirmed that conditions in the workplace have actually improved.

Switching to new equipment is a reason to change the terms of the contract

Employers often believe that in order to comply with the procedure for changing the terms of an employment contract, it is enough to give the employee a notice. But that's not true. First you need to check whether the company is actually experiencing organizational and (or) technological changes in working conditions. Without such grounds, you cannot begin notifying employees. You should also make sure that the adjustment to the provisions of the employment contract is directly related to such changes, and it is impossible to maintain the employee’s previous working conditions.

If at least one of these conditions is not met, the courts, as a rule, recognize the employer’s application of Art. 74 Labor Code of the Russian Federation. This is confirmed by the rulings of the St. Petersburg City Court dated 09/07/2009 No. 11899, Leningrad Regional Court dated November 23, 2011 No. 33-5730/11, Magadan Regional Court dated 04/02/2014 in case No. 2-14/2014, 33-261/2014 . The basis for such decisions is clause 21 of the Resolution of the Plenum of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation dated March 17, 2004 No. 2 (hereinafter referred to as Resolution No. 2). It explains the principles that make it possible to recognize a change in the terms of an employment contract as unlawful. Examples of organizational and technological changes are contained in Art. 74 of the Labor Code of the Russian Federation and clause 21 of Resolution No. 2. These include changes in equipment and production technology, structural reorganization of production, improvement of jobs based on their certification (it was replaced by a special assessment).

Courts consider changes in organizational or technological working conditions to include:

structural reorganization, including the merger of companies, change of location of a unit, workplace, organization of new units with redistribution of subordination of employees and job responsibilities (rulings of the Supreme Court of the Republic of Mordovia dated 03/26/2015 in case No. 33-597/2015, Chelyabinsk Regional Court dated 03/05/2015 on case No. 11-2103/2015, Moscow City Court dated March 25, 2015 No. 4g/8-571);
changing working hours in order to improve production processes (appeal rulings of the Kaliningrad Regional Court dated October 23, 2013 in case No. 33-4694/2013, St. Petersburg City Court dated December 4, 2014 No. 33-18721/2014);
change in operating rules and introduction of new production equipment (ruling of the Moscow Regional Court dated September 21, 2010 in case No. 33-18182) and others. So, it will be possible to prove the legality of adjusting the terms of the employment contract only if the company has undergone organizational and technological changes in working conditions.

In the event of a dispute, the relationship between these events will be proven by a written feasibility study, memos, orders and other documentation. Their absence will significantly complicate the process and may lead to the satisfaction of the employee’s demands for reinstatement at work or the recognition of the introduced changes as illegal.

When can you change the terms of an employment contract*

Presence of organizational and (or) technological changes in working conditions
The relationship between these changes and adjustments to the employment contract
Impossibility of maintaining the previous terms of the employment contract in connection with these changes

*requires a combination of all signs

The results of a special assessment do not always become a reason for changing the terms of the contract

For harmful and dangerous working conditions in the workplace, employees are entitled to benefits (additional pay, additional leave or reduced working hours). Previously, employers had to provide all three guarantees, but now the amount of benefits depends on the degree of “harmfulness” of the workplace. In this regard, it is not clear whether the employer has the right to use the results of the special assessment to cancel compensation unilaterally. After all, it is not always possible to voluntarily sign an agreement to reduce the scope of guarantees with employees.

So, changes to employment contracts in accordance with Art. 74 of the Labor Code of the Russian Federation based on the results of a special assessment will not always be justified. Let us assume that working conditions remained harmful, but the subclass of working conditions decreased solely as a result of the application of a new special assessment methodology without any changes in the workplace. For example, due to the exclusion of the lack of natural light from the number of harmful factors. In such a situation, use Art. 74 of the Labor Code of the Russian Federation and canceling benefits is risky.

On the one hand, a revision of compensation for harmfulness is possible based on the results of a special assessment, provided that the final class (subclass) of working conditions is reduced (clause 12 of the Information dated 10.28.2014 “Standard questions and answers on a special assessment of working conditions” (as amended on 10.29.2014 )). There is no mention of the mandatory presence of real improvements. However, this opinion of the Ministry of Labor must be considered taking into account the provisions of the Labor Code of the Russian Federation and regulations relating to special assessments. From the position of Art. 74 of the Labor Code of the Russian Federation in the described situation it is hardly possible to talk about any changes in working conditions. Part 3 art. 15 of the Federal Law of December 28, 2013 No. 421-FZ also directs that compensation for harm, which was actually provided to employees as of January 1, 2014, cannot be canceled or reduced if the working conditions at the workplace that were basis for prescribing compensatory measures.

Therefore, the safest option is one with a real improvement in working conditions, confirmed by a reduction in the hazard subclass based on the results of a special assessment. After replacing or improving equipment, redistributing load, etc. the employer has every reason to apply Art. 74 Labor Code of the Russian Federation. In practice, such changes do occur, given that several years pass from the moment of workplace certification to the completion of the special assessment, during which a lot changes in production processes.

A decrease in financial indicators is not an independent basis for changing the contract

In conditions of economic instability, the question of the legality of changing employment contracts due to a decrease in the financial and production performance of the company is relevant. As a rule, we are talking about a unilateral reduction in an employee’s salary.

The courts generally have a negative attitude towards such actions by the employer. Thus, in one case, due to the lack of work for an employee (the counterparty did not enter into a new contract), the employer, instead of reducing staff, offered to transfer him to another position. As a result, the court recognized the dismissal under clause 7 of part 1 of art. 77 of the Labor Code of the Russian Federation is illegal (appeal ruling of the Moscow City Court dated December 22, 2014 in case No. 33-41558/14).

In another case, the court declared illegal the actions of an employer who initiated the procedure for changing the terms of an employment contract due to a decrease in the volume of work without any organizational or technological changes in working conditions (appeal ruling of the Moscow City Court dated 04/06/2011 in case No. 33-7025).

The employer’s actions to change the size and structure of wages solely due to the difficult economic situation are also recognized by the courts as illegal (appeal ruling of the Arkhangelsk Regional Court dated 02/04/2013 in case No. 33-0671/2013).

It should be noted that the use of Art. 74 of the Labor Code of the Russian Federation for the purpose of reducing the number of employees is a fairly common mistake of employers.

For example, in a case considered by the Krasnoyarsk Regional Court, the employer decided to abolish the position held by the employee and invited him to take another position with a different name. To confirm the reorganization of production, a new staffing table was prepared. However, according to the court, these actions indicated a change in the labor function defined by the contract, and it made an unambiguous conclusion in favor of the employee. The employer had no reason to warn the employee about changing the terms of the contract, offering another job and subsequent dismissal under clause 7 of Part 1 of Art. 77 of the Labor Code of the Russian Federation (appeal ruling of the Krasnoyarsk Regional Court dated March 17, 2014 in case No. 33-1619/2014).

Other courts also do not disregard the decisions of employers who disguise layoffs as changes in working conditions, and reinstate workers in their positions (appeal rulings of the Irkutsk Regional Court dated September 9, 2014 in case No. 33-7461/2014, Moscow City Court dated March 16, 2015 in the case No. 33-7954/2015, dated March 26, 2015 in case No. 33-6327/2015).

The employer was also unable to prove the presence of changes in organizational or technological working conditions in the case considered by the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation (ruling dated May 16, 2014 No. 5-KG14-14). The employee appealed the dismissal under clause 7, part 1, art. 77 of the Labor Code of the Russian Federation, the reason for which was disagreement with the renaming of the position. In addition, the employer planned to reduce job responsibilities and significantly reduce wages. The basis for such decisions was a change in staffing. The Supreme Court of the Russian Federation came to the conclusion that the exclusion of one position from the staffing table and the simultaneous inclusion of another (with different functionality and earnings) indicates a reduction in staff. And, of course, in such a situation there is no question of changing the terms of the employment contract. As a result, the court declared the employer’s actions illegal.

When changing the terms of the contract, the labor function must remain the same

Based on Art. 74 of the Labor Code of the Russian Federation, you can change any condition of the employment contract: working hours, place of work (including transfer to another city), payment terms, etc. At the same time, it is not allowed to worsen the employee’s position in comparison with the established collective agreement and (or) agreement. However, under no circumstances can the employee’s labor function be changed (Part 1, Part 8, Article 74 of the Labor Code of the Russian Federation). In other words, the storekeeper should be left with his previous responsibilities, and not also charged with cleaning the entire surrounding area.

When an employer begins such large-scale events, what worries him most is the legality of reducing employee salaries. Formally Art. 74 of the Labor Code of the Russian Federation does not prohibit the employer from reducing wages, however, the courts generally have a negative attitude towards the situation when this decision is not related to changes in the employee’s duties (appeal ruling of the Tambov Regional Court dated 08.08.2012 in case No. 33-2048/2012).

Indeed, it is difficult to imagine that organizational and (or) technological changes in working conditions affect only wage conditions. In addition, it is necessary to take into account Part 1 of Art. 129 of the Labor Code of the Russian Federation, according to which an employee’s salary depends on the complexity, quantity and conditions of the work performed.

Therefore, the impossibility of maintaining the previous level of remuneration in most cases can only be explained by a decrease in the scope of job responsibilities, a decrease in the complexity and intensity of work, and other similar reasons. If these circumstances are confirmed, then the employer’s chances of successfully resolving the dispute increase significantly (cassation ruling of the St. Petersburg City Court dated February 27, 2012 No. 33-2768/2012).

When changing job responsibilities, you must make sure that the employee’s job function does not change. Judicial practice varies greatly depending on the extent to which the change in job responsibilities affected the essence of the labor function.

The labor function is understood as working in a position in accordance with the staffing schedule, profession, specialty indicating qualifications, and the specific type of work assigned to the employee (Part 2 of Article 57 of the Labor Code of the Russian Federation). The concept of job responsibilities is not disclosed in the law, but they usually mean those specific actions that an employee performs as part of his job function. For example, the job function of a “HR specialist” implies the following job responsibilities: working with work books, issuing orders for admission, transfers, dismissal and vacations. Whether the adjustment to the job description resulted in a change in the job function and whether the employee’s consent to such actions is required will be assessed by the court on a case-by-case basis (Definition of the Constitutional Court of the Russian Federation dated September 25, 2014 No. 1853-O). But it is hardly possible to talk about a change in the labor function of the position of “legal adviser” if, for various reasons, the responsibility for conducting claims work was removed from his duties. A similar conclusion should be made in relation to the situation when job responsibilities are only being specified.

According to the courts, a reduction in the scope of job responsibilities is not a change in the employee’s job function. This is confirmed by the rulings of the Yaroslavl Regional Court dated July 19, 2012 in case No. 33-3711/2012, the Sverdlovsk Regional Court dated February 11, 2014 in case No. 33-1893/2014, the Court of the Jewish Autonomous Region dated October 17, 2014 in case No. 33-542/ 2014, Moscow City Court dated November 14, 2011 in case No. 4g/4-9268, dated September 18, 2014 in case No. 33-17963/2014, dated April 2, 2015 in case No. 33-6829 and others. But a significant change in job responsibilities, especially associated with a change in the title of the position, will most likely be recognized by the court as a change in the job function.

According to experts, time today is an acutely scarce resource. But any scarce product requires the best use. Therefore, economists have a special interest in the problems of time.

What is time in economics?

In a philosophical sense, time is a form of existence of developing matter. At the level of common sense, time is a certain period of specific activity or a certain moment during which something happens.

Experts distinguish two concepts of time:

time;
economic time.

Since business is distinguished by two basic components (and management), then business time can be characterized as financial or managerial.

In addition, business time has three periods:

short-term (lasts up to one year);
medium-term (covers the period from one to three years);
long-term (lasts over three years).

Economic time - what is it?

In economics, time represents the reaction time of certain assets to changes in the overall economic situation. Experts understand a reaction as a change in factors of production, which lead to a change in the volume of production and, accordingly, in the quantity of supply. Changes in the general economic situation involve changes in needs, which lead to changes in demand and changes in technology. As for the reaction time, this refers to a long process of adaptation of the economy (primarily the assets of the enterprise) to changing conditions from the outside.

Main periods of time in the economy

Since the adaptation process can be of very different durations, in this regard, economists distinguish the following periods of time in the economy:

Instantaneous. During this period, none of the factors of production can be changed. In addition, the quantity of supply does not change at all.
Short. During this period, constant factors of production such as equipment or production space are, of course, impossible. But it is realistic to change the variable factors of production. For example, the number of employees, energy or raw materials. Although on a limited scale, supply will still respond slightly to changes in market conditions.
Long term. During this period, all factors of production can be changed without problems. The only exception is technology. During this time, there has been an increase in production, an increase in prices and demand for production resources, growing.
Super long. This period is characterized by a change in the very technological base of production through the use of innovation.

Time factor in economics – what is it?

Economic damage from loss of time, of course, is almost impossible to compensate. The “time-” link is really strong. Experts note that the greater the time limit that is allotted for solving a specific problem, the more expensive this solution ends up being.

Therefore, the time factor in the economy today is at the foundation of its most important categories - efficiency and effect.

It is important to take into account the time factor when converting different-time costs and production results into an economically comparable form. Its accounting helps to evaluate well the dynamics of costs and, of course, production results in base conditions that do not change.

It should be noted that time, like any other factor, has its opportunity cost. Only for a poor person it is much lower than for someone who earns a lot of money.

The law of saving time - what is it?

The content of the above law includes saving material and living labor, that is, saving the results of working time spent in a certain period, and the results of time from past periods (for example, materials, raw materials, equipment). It follows from this that the optimization of economic proportions, the reduction of material consumption, and the increase in labor productivity are all specific manifestations of the above law.

The specific forms of action of the law with this interpretation are:

mechanization of household work;
reducing time spent on shopping or, for example, transport, home renovation;
improvement of consumer services.

Experts note that the above law of saving time applies not only to working time, but also to part of non-working time.

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In the long term, not only labor, but also capital is a variable factor of production. Production technologies, i.e. production methods, are also variable. Technological progress means that the same output can be produced with less labor and capital. This means that all isoquants are shifted down to the origin (Fig. 6-6):

Rice. 6-6. Shift of isoquants due to technological progress

In the long run, one cannot talk about the productivity of any one production factor (all factors change), but only about returns to scale. Returns to scale shows how many times output increases when all factors of production increase by n
once.

Three cases are possible:

1) If, with an increase in all factors of production in n times output increases by more than n times, there are increasing returns to scale;

2) If, with an increase in all factors of production in n times output increases by less than n times, there are diminishing returns to scale;

3) If, with an increase in all factors of production in n since output also increases by n times, there are constant returns to scale.

Analytically, returns to scale can be determined by a production function of the form:

Let both capital and labor increase n times, which led to an increase in output from q to Q. Then:

Q=A(nK)a(nL)b=AKaLbna+b=na+bq

It follows that when a+b=1, output increases exactly by n times, i.e. returns to scale are constant. When a+b>1 output increases by more than n times, i.e. returns to scale are increasing. Finally, for a+b<1 выпуск увеличивается менее чем в n times, i.e. there are diminishing returns to scale.

Geometrically, all three cases will look like this. With constant returns to scale, the distance between isoquants remains the same (Fig. 6-7):

Rice. 6-7. Constant returns to scale

On the contrary, with increasing returns to scale, the distance between isoquants decreases all the time (Fig. 6-8):

Rice. 6-8. Increasing returns to scale

Finally, with diminishing returns to scale, the distance between isoquants increases (Fig. 6-9):

Rice. 6-9. Diminishing returns to scale

In practice, when a business begins to increase labor and capital, it first faces increasing returns to scale. For example, when labor and capital double, output triples, which indicates a reduction in costs per unit of output and an increase in production efficiency. However, a further increase in the resources used sooner or later leads to the fact that increasing returns to scale are replaced by constant and then decreasing ones: doubling resources leads to an increase in output, for example, by one and a half times. Production efficiency is falling. This serves as a signal that the enterprise has become too large and it is advisable to reduce its size.

The nature of returns to scale plays an important role in determining the optimal size of enterprises in a given industry. In agriculture, for example, increasing returns quickly give way to diminishing returns, so small farms dominate. The opposite picture is observed in the mass automotive industry: Zhiguli cars, in principle, can be assembled in a small workshop, but their production at AvtoVAZ gives us increasing returns to scale. Therefore, when producing cars, giant factories are cost-effective.

There are, therefore, many technically efficient ways to produce a given volume of output. Which one will be chosen, i.e. recognized cost effective, depends on the prices of labor and capital. This will be discussed in the topic “Cost Analysis”.

Professor Klaus Schwab is a Swiss economist, founder and permanent president of the World Economic Forum in Davos since 1971.

The World Economic Forum is a Swiss non-governmental organization best known for organizing its annual meetings in Davos. Leading business leaders, political leaders, prominent thinkers and journalists are invited to attend the meetings. The subject of discussion is the most pressing global problems, including healthcare and environmental protection.

We are on the verge of a technological revolution that will completely change the way we live, work and communicate. We are facing the greatest transformation in the entire history of mankind - the greatest in scale and complexity. We do not yet know how exactly this revolution will take place, but it is already clear: the response to it must correspond in scale to the revolution itself; All participants in global politics must change, all players, from private to public sectors, both the academic world and society itself must change.

The First Industrial Revolution used water and steam power to mechanize production. The Second Industrial Revolution used electricity for assembly line production. The third one automated production using electronics and information technology. The Fourth Industrial Revolution is based on the Third - the digital revolution has been going on in all areas of life since the middle of the last century. Technologies are merging, and the boundaries of the material, digital and biological worlds are blurring.

There are three signs by which we can judge that today's changes are not just a continuation of the Third Revolution, but are the harbingers of the Fourth: speed, scale and systemic consequences. Humanity has never seen such rapid technological progress. Compared to past industrial revolutions, which developed linearly, the scale of the Fourth is increasing exponentially. The Fourth Revolution is affecting every industry in every country in the world. The depth and breadth of the changes it causes require the transformation of entire production, management and governance systems.

The possibilities of billions of people, constantly connected to each other through mobile devices, possessing unprecedented power, memory and giving access to all the knowledge of mankind, are truly limitless. Soon these opportunities will increase manifold; More and more breakthroughs are being made in hitherto unseen areas - artificial intelligence, robotics, Internet of Things, autonomous transport, 3D printing, nanotechnology, materials science, new batteries, quantum computers.

Already today we are faced with artificial intelligence - autonomous cars, drones, virtual assistants, translator programs, advisor programs. The constant growth of computing power and ever-increasing volumes of data have allowed us to make more and more breakthroughs in the creation of artificial intelligence over the past few years: there are programs that develop new drugs and new algorithms that predict new trends in our culture.

Digital technologies are intertwined with material ones every day. Engineers, designers, architects - they all work with computer modeling, 3D printing, develop new materials, and are interested in synthetic biology. All this brings us closer to the symbiosis of a person with microorganisms inside his body, with the products he consumes, even with the buildings in which he will live.

Opportunities and challenges

Like past similar processes, the Fourth Industrial Revolution will be able to globally raise the world's standard of living. The biggest beneficiaries of these changes so far are those with access to the digital world; The development of technology has given rise to products and services that make our lives easier and better. Order a taxi, book a seat on a plane, buy groceries, listen to music, watch a movie, play a game - now all this can be done remotely.

In the future, technological innovations will revolutionize production and increase its efficiency and productivity significantly. Prices for transportation and communications will fall, global supply chains will become more efficient due to developed logistics, and the cost of trade will fall, which will create new markets and spur economic growth.

But at the same time, the new Revolution, as economists Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee note, may also increase financial and social inequality in the world, disrupting the functioning of labor markets. Automation of production will lead to machines, which will only widen the gap between the profitability of capital and the profitability of labor. It is possible, however, that replacing workers with machines will generally lead to an increase in the number of safe and well-paid professions.

So far, we do not yet know which of these scenarios our world will follow. History hints that most likely we will face some combination of one with the other. But I am sure of one thing - in the future, the main factor of production will not be capital, but talent. This will lead to a division of the labor market into a low-paid segment of jobs that do not require qualifications, and a high-paid segment of highly skilled labor, which, in turn, will aggravate social conflicts.

In addition to economic inequality, the Fourth Industrial Revolution may also increase social inequality. The biggest beneficiaries of innovation are the intellectuals and capitalists - the innovators, shareholders and investors. This creates a financial gap between those who live off labor and those who live off capital. Therefore, technological progress is one of the main reasons for the stagnation and sometimes decline in income levels of the majority of the population of developed countries: the demand for highly qualified specialists has increased, while the demand for low-skilled labor is falling and will continue to fall. As a result, either completely unqualified people or specialists are in demand; there is emptiness in the middle.

This explains the fear of the future and the acute sense of disappointment that the modern worker experiences. It also helps explain why there is a sense of dissatisfaction and injustice among the middle classes around the world. A winner-take-all economy, in which the majority of the middle class is denied access, leads to the decline and destruction of democratic societies.

Society is permeated with digital technologies, the very dynamics of information transmission have changed - this also fuels discontent. More than 30% of the world's population today uses social networks and media to communicate, learn and disseminate information. Ideally, this should strengthen cross-cultural connections and collaboration. But unfortunately, freedom of information also leads to the rise of unfounded expectations, misunderstanding of the criteria for success for groups and individuals, and the spread of extremist ideas and ideologies.

Consequences of the revolution for business

All the directors and senior managers I spoke with on this topic expressed the same idea: innovation, emerging at incredible speed, disrupts any forecasts and business plans. Even the most informed of my interlocutors could not keep up with the constantly evolving world. Technologies born out of the Fourth Industrial Revolution are influencing the business world more and more.

Supply has changed - new technologies have made it possible to find new ways to deliver goods to consumers, which has destroyed or changed previously existing supply chains.
Older companies are increasingly facing young, nimble competitors who, with access to a global network, are outpacing veteran businesses in research, development, marketing, sales and production. Young competitors suddenly become faster, provide better services, but at a lower price than their predecessors.

Demand has also changed. Business transparency has increased, consumers are increasingly influencing companies, new patterns of consumer behavior (which have emerged largely due to access to mobile networks) are forcing businesses to adapt to the new state of affairs. Design solutions, sales markets, and methods of delivering goods and services are changing.

The key trend of new business platforms is the increasing mixing of supply and demand, the emergence of economies built on exchange. New platforms, created specifically for access through smartphones or other mobile gadgets, attract and gather many people, simultaneously creating completely new types of consumption. It becomes increasingly easier for an individual or a company to create capital, which changes working and social conditions. All these new platforms are multiplied and divided into more specific service markets - laundry, shopping, parking, massages, tourism and the like.

In general, there are four main effects that the Fourth Industrial Revolution is having on business: rising consumer expectations, improving product quality, group innovation and the emergence of new forms of organization. Today, the customer is at the epicenter of the economy. Whoever he is, an individual or a legal entity, servicing him is the task of the modern economy. Tangible goods and services are enhanced through digital technology, increasing their value. Materials are becoming better and cheaper, and new ways of collecting and studying data are optimizing their production. Analytics of consumer reviews and business success require new forms of labor cooperation that take into account the increased speed of development and change in markets. The emergence of global digital platforms and new business models means that the very concepts of talent, culture and organization need to be redefined.

In general, the transition from simply the sphere of digital technologies (the Third Industrial Revolution) to technologies based on a mixture of different spheres (the Fourth Industrial Revolution) is forcing business companies to reconsider the very foundations of their business. But the conclusion remains the same: heads of companies and directors need to learn to understand the world around them, look for new business opportunities and constantly develop.

Consequences of the revolution for the state

Technologies emerging at the intersection of the physical, digital and biological worlds will lead to the creation of new platforms through which citizens can convey their opinions to the government, coordinate their actions and even avoid the attention of the authorities. At the same time, states will gain new tools for population control based on widespread surveillance and power over digital infrastructure. But governments will have to change and adapt to new degrees of public involvement in politics. The state will cease to be the main source of benefits, which means we will face a redistribution and decentralization of state power.

The ability of states to change will become a matter of their survival. If they can accept the new, transparent, ever-changing world, they will survive. By refusing to change, they doom themselves to increased internal conflicts.

The main changes will affect regulatory mechanisms. Modern regulatory systems appeared in politics after the end of the Second Industrial Revolution, at a time when the state had time to study the issue in its entirety and then develop regulatory mechanisms. The whole process was linear and mechanical, and proceeded from top to bottom.
But this approach no longer works. The Fourth Industrial Revolution has accelerated development processes so much that old regulatory methods simply cannot keep up with new technologies.

How can the government pursue the interests of the people while encouraging innovation and technological progress? The private sector has provided the answer by creating “agile” management, particularly in the areas of software development. Such management means that the regulatory mechanism itself must adapt to new technologies simply to understand what exactly it regulates. And for such a management method to work, the state and regulatory structures will have to work closely with business and society.

The Fourth Industrial Revolution will change the very nature of national and international security. It will affect both the type of conflicts and their nature. The history of military affairs and national security is the history of technological progress. Modern interstate conflicts are increasingly “hybrid”; they combine direct action on the battlefield with non-state phenomena and elements. The line between war and peace, soldier and civilian, and even violence and nonviolence (think cyberterrorism) becomes frighteningly blurred.

With the development of military technology, the advent of biological and autonomous weapons, non-state groups of people will reach the same level of lethality as states. This vulnerability will cause an explosion of fear among the population. At the same time, technological breakthroughs will potentially reduce the danger of military action by creating protective systems or increasing the accuracy of weapons.

Consequences of the revolution for people

And finally, the Fourth Industrial Revolution will change not only our lives, but also us. It will affect our self-identity, our personal space, our understanding of property, our consumption patterns, change the amount of time we spend on work and entertainment, and completely change the criteria for professional success. We will get to know each other differently, learn differently, communicate differently. Our relationship with our bodies and personalities is changing right now, and in the future this will lead to the development of human augmentation. The list of changes is endless and limited only by our imagination.

I'm enthusiastic about new technologies and try to use them as early as possible, but sometimes I wonder if integrating these technologies into our daily lives will change what we consider to be the essence of being human - for example, the feeling of compassion or the desire to cooperate with others people. Take our attitude towards smartphones. Constantly being connected to the Internet will take away one of the most important things in life: the ability to stop, think in silence and engage in serious conversation.

New information technologies will mainly affect what we call personal life. Instinctively, we understand the value and importance of privacy, but the interconnectedness of the world requires us to constantly share information about ourselves with strangers. In the future, we expect more and more new discussions and disputes related to the definition of personal life and the loss of control over the dissemination of information about it. And revolutions in biotechnology and the development of artificial intelligence will force us to reconsider the very understanding of “humanity.” We will live longer, healthier, think faster and more efficiently. All this will force us to reconsider our moral and ethical boundaries.

Creating the future

Technology and the changes it brings about are not an overwhelming force over which we have no control. We are all creating the future now, a future that depends on our actions as citizens, consumers and contributors. That is why we must harness the forces of the Fourth Industrial Revolution to create a world that meets our common interests and values.

But to do this, we need to develop a global system of views on exactly how technology is changing our lives, how it affects the economy, society, culture and people themselves. Yes, we are standing on the threshold of great achievements, but they can also turn into our death. Today's leaders are too mired in traditional, linear thinking, too caught up in multiple crises, each of which requires immediate action. They must think strategically about the forces of progress and innovation that will shape our future.

Rice. 9. Shift of isoquants due to technical progress

Three cases are possible:

1) If, with an increase in all factors of production in n times output increases by more than n times, there are increasing returns to scale;

2) If, with an increase in all factors of production in n times output increases by less than n times, there are diminishing returns to scale;

3) If, with an increase in all factors of production in n since output also increases by n times, there are constant returns to scale.

Analytically, returns to scale can be determined by a production function of the form:

Let both capital and labor increase n times, which led to an increase in output from q to Q. Then:

Q=A(nK) a (nL) b =AK a L b n a + b =n a + b q

Geometrically, all three cases will look like this. With constant returns to scale, the distance between isoquants remains the same (Fig. 10):

Rice. 10. Constant returns to scale